This post has nothing to do with weapons, war, or oil...
If I were a cynic about our central state, I'd be half-convinced they're purposefully killing the dollar to lower the unemployment rate.
Here's how (and why)...
The Fed flips the switch on the printing press. In doing so, they double the monetary base. The extra dollars haven't hit the money supply (M1) yet, but the market is already discounting the effect those dollars will eventually have on prices. So, the dollar falls.
The further the dollar plummets, the more attractive our goods look to other countries. Rising exports translate into more domestic jobs. That lowers the unemployment rate. Bernanke looks good. Obama looks good. And Krugman adopts a grin that makes libertarians want to set aside their "no aggression" stance to punch him in the chops.
Of course, juicing employment this way creates a lot of problems. A weaker dollar makes imports more expensive (good news for the "buy American" folks). But, since the populace doesn't have its finger on the pulse of imports and exports, those numbers are largely ignored. Instead, the populace wonders why "things seem more expensive these days."
Meanwhile, due to rising exports, the unemployment figure drops below 8% (I'm speculating on the number here). That allows Obama and Bernanke to say, "See? Printing the cash worked! Thanks to our guidance, we avoided falling off the economic cliff."
And everyone claps. The populace doesn't fully appreciate the long-term damage of a decimated dollar. All they know is that "prices seem higher" and "traveling abroad is so expensive these days." And of course, businesses can't seem to penetrate foreign markets.
But, that's only if I were a cynic about our central state.
If I were a cynic about our central state, I'd be half-convinced they're purposefully killing the dollar to lower the unemployment rate.
Here's how (and why)...
The Fed flips the switch on the printing press. In doing so, they double the monetary base. The extra dollars haven't hit the money supply (M1) yet, but the market is already discounting the effect those dollars will eventually have on prices. So, the dollar falls.
The further the dollar plummets, the more attractive our goods look to other countries. Rising exports translate into more domestic jobs. That lowers the unemployment rate. Bernanke looks good. Obama looks good. And Krugman adopts a grin that makes libertarians want to set aside their "no aggression" stance to punch him in the chops.
Of course, juicing employment this way creates a lot of problems. A weaker dollar makes imports more expensive (good news for the "buy American" folks). But, since the populace doesn't have its finger on the pulse of imports and exports, those numbers are largely ignored. Instead, the populace wonders why "things seem more expensive these days."
Meanwhile, due to rising exports, the unemployment figure drops below 8% (I'm speculating on the number here). That allows Obama and Bernanke to say, "See? Printing the cash worked! Thanks to our guidance, we avoided falling off the economic cliff."
And everyone claps. The populace doesn't fully appreciate the long-term damage of a decimated dollar. All they know is that "prices seem higher" and "traveling abroad is so expensive these days." And of course, businesses can't seem to penetrate foreign markets.
But, that's only if I were a cynic about our central state.