£120k on Novak Djokovic

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Incantation

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Mar 17, 2010
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Had a discussion in a thread here last week about throwing huge stakes on low risk outcomes and just ran into this story. This guy (Dead Cert Man) has put £120,000 on Novak Djokovic to beat Roger Federer at the French Open semi-finals (think it's today) at odds 1/3. The guy must be batshit crazy betting against Federer, but I do hear that Djokovic is the new kid of tennis?!

I’m Dead Cert for a house in £120k bet | The Sun |News

That bet will likely fail IMO, but have a look at his track record. 23 on the trot and each time he wins he raises the next bet, started on £8,500. Nice style, but surely that's too bigger a risk with Federer?!

‘Dead cert’ punter’s 23 winners on the trot | The Sun |News
 


New kid in tennis? Not sure what sport you've been watching but he's been in the Top 10 for several years now. At the moment Federer holds the #3 ranking awhile Novak is #2 with a 3k point lead. Not to mention that he's been playing great all year and has been undefeated since like November 2010.

Putting all that into consideration, it's not a crazy bet.
 
He's up £160k, if he loses this he is still up 40k.

That being said - I have no idea why he is betting with the same bookmarker each time - I don't see why he doesn't use something like betfair instead to get better odds. Last time I checked that was trading at about 1.4 for djokovic to win, whereas he netted 1.33.

That's a pretty huge difference in pricing and he is leaving £84000 on the table. Even if he paid betfairs highest % fee which is 5% he'd still only be paying a premium of $0.02 which means he could go as low as $1.35 and still be up against that book maker.

Better believe that bookmaker is laying off a huge chunk of that bet on something like betfair and just laughing it up to the bank.

Retard probably would have been up by more than a million if he used a proper bookmaker.
 
Aurele said:
Martingale are great, until they fail :)
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That second article just shows bets won in early May. Not sure of his bets taken between then and now, but I'd assume that £8500 was the base stake and he has won every bet since then. So all of the money being placed would be profit alone, he may even have that £8500 put aside. Martingale is different, because the actual stake to maintain a good run will be your own money, not profit. No probs with table limits either as some bookies will happily accept a few million (some don't even have a cap).
 
mGrunin said:
New kid in tennis? Not sure what sport you've been watching but he's been in the Top 10 for several years now. At the moment Federer holds the #3 ranking awhile Novak is #2 with a 3k point lead. Not to mention that he's been playing great all year and has been undefeated since like November 2010.

Putting all that into consideration, it's not a crazy bet.
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Sorry man, not up on my tennis. He's only recently been making the news though hasn't he from his good run of form?!

tencentpiece said:
He's up £160k, if he loses this he is still up 40k.

That being said - I have no idea why he is betting with the same bookmarker each time - I don't see why he doesn't use something like betfair instead to get better odds. Last time I checked that was trading at about 1.4 for djokovic to win, whereas he netted 1.33.

That's a pretty huge difference in pricing and he is leaving £84000 on the table. Even if he paid betfairs highest % fee which is 5% he'd still only be paying a premium of $0.02 which means he could go as low as $1.35 and still be up against that book maker.

Better believe that bookmaker is laying off a huge chunk of that bet on something like betfair and just laughing it up to the bank.

Retard probably would have been up by more than a million if he used a proper bookmaker.
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Good post there. William Hill are pretty retarded with odds, would always use Bet365 or Betfair (would at least use an odds comparison service at those kinda stakes). I guess it's much easier to suck in media attention when going on a winning run with a brand like William Hill (if that's his idea).
 
I watch a ton of ATP.. Novak is definitely the most superior player in the world right now. 43+ win streak.. while fed has been decreasing in dominance for the last 1.5 yrs.. its not a crazy bet.
 
if u think Djoko it's the new kid in tennis, then u probably watched badminton until now.
 
flx89 said:
if u think Djoko it's the new kid in tennis, then u probably watched badminton until now.
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Looking at the top rankings over the past 6 years, it has either been Federer or Nadal at number one and two. Djokovic has not made the top two in these past 6 years and so surely that makes him the new kid of tennis, new face of tennis... whatever. Yes, he's favourite to beat Federer, but it still looks risky to me. It's kinda like Barcelona playing Real Madrid at the Nou Camp. You wouldn't wanna throw 120k on it. I'd have to be 99% sure of an outcome to punt crazy money like that.
 
I think Novak will win, however the guy placing the bet should of waited until the match is in-play - would of definitely got better odds.
 
Federer is definitely awesome, but Novac Djoko is also "in the game".

But to be honest I wouldn't bet on Novac because I don't like him.. And I'd rather make an investment in Roger Federer.

Safe bet don't you reckon?
 
This is probably bollocks. I bet Dead Cert Man is a William Hill PR shill in a tracksuit. It's not like the Sun would bother checking their facts on this sort of story.
 
Incantation said:
Looking at the top rankings over the past 6 years, it has either been Federer or Nadal at number one and two. Djokovic has not made the top two in these past 6 years and so surely that makes him the new kid of tennis, new face of tennis... whatever. Yes, he's favourite to beat Federer, but it still looks risky to me. It's kinda like Barcelona playing Real Madrid at the Nou Camp. You wouldn't wanna throw 120k on it. I'd have to be 99% sure of an outcome to punt crazy money like that.
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Look at the last years top 5....you will see Djoko there. He was in top 4 for the last few years.
 
Food for thought. Novak won the 1st Grand Slam this year - Australian Open. In addition, he played against Roger 3 times this year and won on all 3 occasions.
 
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