7.8% Unemployment - or Conspiracy?

WickedJoe

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Jul 7, 2008
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So September jobs data just came out with revisions to previous months as well. The unemployment rate is down to 7.8%(Sept) from 8.1% (Aug). It was expected to rise to 8.2%.
It's the lowest unemployment since Jan 2009. That's right.. a few weeks before the election it just happens to go down to what it was when Obama first took office.
There are a few other crazy statistics as well to make this data historically crazy good.
Many mainstream traders are talking conspiracy.. and they're even giving the idea some serious time on CNBC. Many just are not believing the numbers.

October surprise? I don't have an opinion one way or the other but sure seems fishy.
 


When adjusted for seasonality, the unemployment rate stayed the same.

Job growth stayed at the minimum needed to keep up with population growth, yet the rate dropped 0.3%. It's most likely that seasonal workers stopped looking because they went back to school, college, etc.

It's not a conspiracy, but statistics can be spun to make them say anything you want.
 
Anyone that deals with stats and numbers knows you can pick and choose whatever you want them to say.
 
They're not counting the people who said fuck it and quit going to the unemployment office. And they're not counting the people who can only get part time work.
 
When adjusted for seasonality, the unemployment rate stayed the same.

Job growth stayed at the minimum needed to keep up with population growth, yet the rate dropped 0.3%. It's most likely that seasonal workers stopped looking because they went back to school, college, etc.

It's not a conspiracy, but statistics can be spun to make them say anything you want.

Good point. Did we get the same effect in Oct '11 then? If this is true I can now see why we often get a market dip in May/Jun cause unemployment goes up due to seasonality.
 
They're not counting the people who said fuck it and quit going to the unemployment office. And they're not counting the people who can only get part time work.

This. The numbers are so fucking skewed already. The real unemployment rate is probably over 10%.

Romney is countering with around 11%.
 
Well what matters is if unemployment is currently measured the same way that it was in 2007 or 1999 when times were good. It's all relative as long as they are staying consistent in how they measure it. Nobody was complaining in 1999/2007.
 
What needs to be looked at is the U6 rate, that's the most important, imo.

The U6 jobless rate was unchanged at 14.7% last month.
 
Well what matters is if unemployment is currently measured the same way that it was in 2007 or 1999 when times were good. It's all relative as long as they are staying consistent in how they measure it. Nobody was complaining in 1999/2007.

The problem is that many statistical reports made by the government are no longer calculated in the same manner as they were 5, 10 or 20 years ago. Read Shadow Stats (Andrey provided the link above) to see how, for example, unemployment and inflation statistics have changed.
 
Well it is in line with the 7.9 unemployment rate from Gallup's polling (which also uses the same flawed methodology) so I don't think they're messing with the numbers, but I don't think it's actual job gains thats pushing the number lower, just the methodology.
 
I bought some $17 Nov 21 ^VIX calls today... just waiting for the market to remember Europe is still a complete mess and America's fiscal cliff is once again inching closer.
 
If people had any idea how the BLS calculates that number, they would never, ever, ever reference it.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics put the lie into "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics".

@OP, the best thing you can do for yourself, is learn economics (like most of the super wealthy and successful people in the world). Then you will not pay attention to this sort of noise meant to confuse people who don't understand it's a propaganda game.
 
This report really digs into the numbers.

September




The Bureau of Labor Statistics released unemployment numbers for September on Friday. Sure to dominate the headlines is the modest reduction in the commonly-cited U-3 unemployment rate, which dropped from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent. That’s the best number of the Obama era, and while nowhere near the 5.6 percent Obama promised we would be enjoying right now, it’s below 8 percent, so it will get a lot of attention. For those unfamiliar with the parameters of the New Normal, it used to be said that no President could get re-elected with unemployment higher than 7 percent, but now anything less than 8 percent is the best America can expect. 8 percent unemployment has become the threshold at which champagne corks pop.
And yet… the actual job creation figure for September was a horrifyingly weak 114,000 jobs. That’s at least 40,000 less than would be needed merely to keep up with population growth. The more comprehensive U-6 unemployment number, which counts the long-term unemployed, remained fixed at a horrendous 14.7 percent. So how did the U-3 “marquee” rate come down a few tenths of a percentage point?
Well, part of the “thanks” goes to that perennial feature of Obamanomics, the collapsing U.S. workforce. 211,000 people left the workforce entirely over the past month. They no longer count for compiling the U-3 statistic. So, twice as many people stopped looking for jobs as found jobs, and that’s supposed to be good news.
Then we add an upward revision to the job creation numbers for July and August of 86,000 more jobs, which makes September look worse by comparison to August, but it won’t be reported that way. Actually, the trend line over the last three months is pointing down. Fewer jobs were created in each successive month. The job market is getting worse.


snip:


And Bloomberg News explains the rest of the “tumble” to 7.8 percent unemployment nirvana: an incredible explosion of part-time work. The transformation of the American economy to a part-time and temporary workforce continues apace. That sort of thing used to bother the hell out of the media, back when someone else was president, and dark muttering about “burger-flipper jobs” filled the airwaves.
“The household survey showed an 873,000 increase in employment, the biggest since June 1983, excluding the annual Census population adjustments,” Bloomberg analyst Alex Kowalski explains. “Some 582,000 Americans took part-time positions because of slack business conditions or those jobs were the only work they could find. Joblessness fell most among teenagers, declining to 23.7 percent last month from 24.6 percent.”
(Emphasis mine.) So a lot of desperate people took part-time jobs to put food on the table, and a lot of teenagers found seasonal work. Yay! Let’s hear it for Obamanomics, everyone! Four more years!

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There is a lot more interesting stuff then the above... but you get the point. Funny thing - Wall Street is SERIOUSLY questioning the numbers right now....
 
There is a lot more interesting stuff then the above... but you get the point. Funny thing - Wall Street is SERIOUSLY questioning the numbers right now....
No one intelligent on Wall Street believes those numbers. They only care about the sentiment it generates among the consumer public, and changes in government policy.

Official lies have always been weather vanes for clever speculators.
 
@OP, the best thing you can do for yourself, is learn economics (like most of the super wealthy and successful people in the world). Then you will not pay attention to this sort of noise meant to confuse people who don't understand it's a propaganda game.

True but economists don't agree on much of anything, am i right? So what if i pick up an economics textbook by Bernanke (he has them) or other people you don't agree with? Am I still learning economics? Or am I only learning it if I pick up an Austrian textbook?

I guess the best answer would be to learn both Austrian and Keynesian economics and reasons for and against the BLS unemployment algorithm and make up my own mind from there.
 
No one intelligent on Wall Street believes those numbers. They only care about the sentiment it generates among the consumer public, and changes in government policy.

Official lies have always been weather vanes for clever speculators.

Wall Street has long stopped trading off government numbers empirically, BUT the street is perpetually wary and tuned into political developments because looming political issues have been driving the attractiveness of securities more than fundamental analysis for some time now.

To wit, unanswered Greek debt questions may swing the price of SBUX more than the price of coffee beans. Stuff like this makes a market skittish. It's tough to trade.
 
Unemployment is just a word. We could all do physical labor all day long and have 100% employment or we could have technology do everything for us and have 0% employment. Which would produce the greater quality of life?
 
True but economists don't agree on much of anything, am i right?
But that doesn't change the nature of objective reality.

An apple is an apple even if economists can't decide what to call it.

There are good economists and bad economists like there is good music and bad music. The onus on the person paying attention is to fact check, not just rely on what economists say, or to look at a lot of discussion between economists and conclude that no one knows anything.

So what if i pick up an economics textbook by Bernanke (he has them) or other people you don't agree with?
That I don't agree with them is a lot less important than why I don't agree with them. The WHY matters.

Am I still learning economics?
Depends on how you treat the information. Again, if you believe everything you read, then are you really learning, or are you just absorbing?

Or am I only learning it if I pick up an Austrian textbook?
You can learn a lot from classical economics. You can even learn some from public choice and chicago school economics.

If you're clever, you can even learn stuff from Malthus and Marx, although you might learn more from them about how they were very wrong.

People confuse my interest in Austrianism with dogmatism. That's not at all the case. Right now, I am working on an approach which completely questions libertarianism and market economics. In a sense, trying to burn down what I have been very much behind for the last 6 years.

Austrian economics is fascinating for all of the stuff which is not economics. Mises came up with a completely new and radically excellent way (Praxeology)to interpret and utilize the entire realm of social sciences, which we have only just begun to scratch away at.

I guess the best answer would be to learn both Austrian and Keynesian economics and reasons for and against the BLS unemployment algorithm and make up my own mind from there.
There are many schools besides those two. Keynesianism is based on a simple false premise, which once understood, makes many of Keynes conclusions incorrect.

Imagine it like this. You are doing algebra. X = 2. But you solve where X = 3. Your premise is wrong. Thus, all of your answers will be wrong, even though you did algebra with the correct procedures and rules.

Keynes (and many modern economists) misinterpret Say's Law (Jean-Baptiste Say). Because they place demand ahead of supply, their theories end up the inverse of the result they want to attain.

The BLS modifies the unemployment numbers constantly to hide the true number of unemployed. The government does the same thing with the inflation numbers, GDP etc. Once you look into how they change the methodology on the fly to make it open ended and subjective, you realize these are no longer statistics, but propaganda.

Jim Williams @ Shadowstats tracks these metrics using the old standards, so that his numbers are consistent across time.

12 inches needs to be 12 inches 10, 20 and 50 years ago, if you're going to compare numbers across those periods. It can't be 11.5" one year, and 12.25" the next.

The question you should be asking is, 7.8% of what? What is U-3? What is U-2? Why do we use U-3 over U-2?

This ^^^ is why I get frustrated in debates with people re: politics and economy. The fact they are morally, logically and philosophically bankrupt aside, they don't exhibit that natural curiosity necessary to be a free and critical thinker. Not saying that is you. Just in general.