AAPL Stock



It's just day traders fucking with the company.

The company still is making record profits, yet stock going down? Yeah they haven't done anything great in two years now, but they're still making money.
 
Here's a shitty chart which illustrates a price evolution that wouldn't surprise me:

RDNOdx7.png


I'm not a trader and this isn't financial advice, just an opinion.
 
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My opinion on Apple is that it should not be touched with a ten foot pole any time soon. As a company, they have been performing poorly in the past 6 months compared to the prior years. First of all, they have missed quarterly estimates three times in a row. Their prized product "iPhone 5" did not follow the same selling patterns as all their prior models have. Their recent product "iPad Mini" was a mediocre launch while lowering their margins (this is big!). Lastly, the gravy on top is Tom Cook's performance.

Two weeks ago when Apple was about $30 higher Cook had an interview with Goldman Sachs. The main topic of the interview was what will Apple do with the ridiculous amount of cash they are sitting on top of. Investors were waiting for Cook to either raise the dividend or begin a buyback program. Well Cook barely spoke about either one and instead dropped many magic lines, two of them are:

"Cash is not burning a hole in my pocket."
"We do not care about quarterly results but about the future."

Keep in mind that all investors/traders were waiting for Cook to specifically discuss their cash hoard, instead all they heard was that they are fine with the situation and missing another quarter doesn't bother them. To no surprise, the stock tanked, and hasn't stopped since that day.

I have made a lot of money trading Apple, but at the same time I have lost a lot of money trading it because I believed I saw the bottoms. The last trade I placed in Apple was back in December when it was climbing towards $600 but that rally was washed away. At this point, any gap up by Apple is being faded to oblivion.

Keep in mind that Apple has gone from the biggest institutional holder to the 3rd biggest. Having said that, keep on waiting and trust me the day that Apple finally begins to rebound, it will be very clear. I would not be surprised to see a $200 rally in a 2 month time frame. When can it start? Probably not anytime soon with how high the markets are right now.

Dow Jones just hit a new all time high, and S&P is reaching a triple top. Over the next few months we will either be grinding at these levels or pullback a bit. If we pullback, Apple will probably pullback along with the markets. I do believe that in June the markets will begin pushing much higher, and will finally awake Apple.
 
To me it's a reminder that stock trading is a lot like baseball card trading. If a company is not paying decent dividends the value of a stock is so arbitrary.

It also reminds me that for tech companies the market only rewards continued innovation because tech is outdated so quickly. These companies can never sit around for very long. Their innovator-in-chief is now dead.
 
mGrunin said:
...any idea what a bubble is?
Click to expand...

The AAPL situation doesn't seem as unreasonable as the Tulip Mania or other bubbles from an investment standpoint, I get it.

Apple = great company, great earnings

But if it's one thing tech companies taught us (and as gay webmasters, we're in a better position to understand this than the Average Joe because it's easy to think of a "website multipliers vs. brick and mortar business multipliers" comparison), it's that the current revenue or profit level of a tech business is considerably less reliable as an indicator than the revenue/profits of a brick & mortar company.

That's because when it comes to tech companies, innovation plays a far more important role than with other businesses.

A new fad/trend/whatever emerges and if you don't adapt, you're gone.

Nobody will care that you had lots of success a couple of years ago, your revenue and profits can and will decline dramatically if you don't adapt.

That's why tech companies shouldn't be analyzed using the same approach people choose for "traditional" businesses.

When asset prices deviate strongly from intrinsic values, we have a bubble.

The "intrinsic values" part is tricky when it comes to most assets though and especially tricky when it comes to tech stocks.

But what did most if not all tech companies teach us?

That we have to price in the eventual decline/failure to adapt.

Maybe Apple will always innovate, maybe this company always be in the spotlight but it probably won't and that brings us right back to the "this time it's different" situation.
 
This summer, Apple is releasing the new model of the Macbook Air. That should blow the roof off the industry and the stock.

mGrunin quoted the "mistake" Apple is making right now (via Tim Cook) that they should be instituting a buyback program to snatch up their stock when it's cheap so when it goes back up, they actually profit from it. By not buying back the stock right now, it gives traders a bad feeling and so no one else is buying it, causing the price to drop continuously.

And to say that Apple is a shitty company is ridiculous, they have almost as much cash in the bank as Google has market value. They are a fucking beast of a company.
 
charlie.simm said:
The AAPL situation doesn't seem as unreasonable as the Tulip Mania or other bubbles from an investment standpoint, I get it.

Apple = great company, great earnings

But if it's one thing tech companies taught us (and as gay webmasters, we're in a better position to understand this than the Average Joe because it's easy to think of a "website multipliers vs. brick and mortar business multipliers" comparison), it's that the current revenue or profit level of a tech business is considerably less reliable as an indicator than the revenue/profits of a brick & mortar company.

That's because when it comes to tech companies, innovation plays a far more important role than with other businesses.

A new fad/trend/whatever emerges and if you don't adapt, you're gone.

Nobody will care that you had lots of success a couple of years ago, your revenue and profits can and will decline dramatically if you don't adapt.

That's why tech companies shouldn't be analyzed using the same approach people choose for "traditional" businesses.

When asset prices deviate strongly from intrinsic values, we have a bubble.

The "intrinsic values" part is tricky when it comes to most assets though and especially tricky when it comes to tech stocks.

But what did most if not all tech companies teach us?

That we have to price in the eventual decline/failure to adapt.

Maybe Apple will always innovate, maybe this company always be in the spotlight but it probably won't and that brings us right back to the "this time it's different" situation.
Click to expand...

I agree that technology companies face extreme scrutiny when it comes to innovation. Just that to say Apple is a bubble isn't fair considering that their balance sheet is still extremely impressive. At this point, Apple's downside has been completely overshot and is oversold definitely.

Over the course of this year we will really find out if Apple has what it takes to "redeem" their name. I feel that if they come out with an iPhone 5S, it will only cause further harm to the company.
 
One last thing, keep an eye out for Google.

Google is a major hold by institutional buyers. As Apple has been heading down, money has been flowing out of Apple into Google by the institutions. Once Apple starts pushing up, trust me, you will see a pullback in Google.
 
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