Are Stocks Correcting?

M

Mr.Funsocks

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Nov 29, 2012
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Mid Atlantic
A nice little pre-trade discussion for Monday.

There's been talk that we could be seeing a correction for 2014 after stocks have been soaring in 2013. In the last two days of trading, the US market lost about 3%.

Goldman, Morgan Stanley and others are saying a 12-20% correction could be in play for 2014.

What are your general feelings about the market? Too much FED money? Emerging markets slowing down too much?
 


I'm personally going 100% all-in on FunSocks. YMMV.

HELOC's from '05 are about to balloon, amortize or default.

Retail foot traffic is down close to 50% from 2010. New retail shops opening (in square feet) are down from roughly 300 million in 2010 to 44 million in 2013.

Jobs are being outsourced or automated. I get the feeling that flooding the economy with cash won't have a positive effect. The middle class is being destroyed - if 40% taxes aren't enough Obamacare will break a lot of people. Add FED inflation into that and it's not pretty.

I'd think the real answer to your question is do you have insider knowledge? If not -I'd hedge my investments carefully - or not mess with it at all.

I personally invest in my own assets. I know them - I'm an insider. I'm not talking stocks, I'm talking media buys and product development. That being said I don't claim to be a financial advisor - Worst case scenario rub McGrunin's mole 3 times and you'll be good to go.
 
I expect the market to be up about 150 on Monday. If it's down another 100+ that would be huge damage. Usually after a big down day it recovers at least 50%.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a 10 to 15 percent correction though over the next few weeks/months.
 
scottspfd82 said:
I'd think the real answer to your question is do you have insider knowledge? If not -I'd hedge my investments carefully - or not mess with it at all.
Click to expand...

That advise is definently the way to go if you can get insider knowlegde. I don't think that is possible for the average retail investor. Avoiding equities based on the fact that one cannot get insider knowledge is doing a disservice, in my opinion.

r3p1v said:
I expect the market to be up about 150 on Monday. If it's down another 100+ that would be huge damage. Usually after a big down day it recovers at least 50%.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a 10 to 15 percent correction though over the next few weeks/months.
Click to expand...

I agree that stocks will most likely bounce back somewhat Monday. Over the course of the year, I am inclined to believe a lower finish from last year.


I think the ball is in Yellen's court. She will keep the easy-money policies of the FED going throughout her term. If investors trust her and if that continues, the rally may keep going.

The current problem I see is through doing some corporate financial analysis. Many companies are not investing their capital back into the company for neither organic nor expansionary growth; rather they are buying back stock. Theory states that a company should only buyback stock if putting that same amount of capital back into the company would yield lower returns. I find that quite telling of corporations' general feeling of the market. This seems to be industry wide, except for Google and some others who are expanding through acquisition.
 
money flowing into volatility plays, precious metals building up stronger bases, and a lot of expectations that QE is going to stop, even with disappointing job numbers. The market has a lot of bad news priced into it now after a big (some would say undeserved) run-up last year. Not a lot of positive news events on the horizon, and a lot of concern/confusion over Obamacare, emerging markets getting crushed by less Fed-supplied easy money, plus another upcoming showdown in Congress over debt/spending limits. Lot of reasons to be a Bear for the rest of 1st Quarter...
 
There are concerns with China and other Emerging Markets and a 10% correction could be under way, we are surely due for one. If it is, we are down 4% from the market peak this year. So we are about 40% done. The last few pull backs have done about 4-7%. I have money on the sidelines and will slowly start picking up investments as the market corrects
 
scottspfd82 said:
I'm personally going 100% all-in on FunSocks. YMMV.

HELOC's from '05 are about to balloon, amortize or default.

Retail foot traffic is down close to 50% from 2010. New retail shops opening (in square feet) are down from roughly 300 million in 2010 to 44 million in 2013.

Jobs are being outsourced or automated. I get the feeling that flooding the economy with cash won't have a positive effect. The middle class is being destroyed - if 40% taxes aren't enough Obamacare will break a lot of people. Add FED inflation into that and it's not pretty.

I'd think the real answer to your question is do you have insider knowledge? If not -I'd hedge my investments carefully - or not mess with it at all.

I personally invest in my own assets. I know them - I'm an insider. I'm not talking stocks, I'm talking media buys and product development. That being said I don't claim to be a financial advisor - Worst case scenario rub McGrunin's mole 3 times and you'll be good to go.
Click to expand...

While retail foot traffic is down, internet sales are up. For the jobs that are lost to automation, we'll somebody has to build and maintain those machines. My point is that there are opportunities if you look for them
 
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