I hate it when leads stop coming in

[threehundred]

Today, with one of my campaigns, I get 150 clicks, 11 leads. That's pretty good. Then I 150 more clicks, no leads. How is this possible?

I wrote a post about it here

How do others feel when you are doing good, then the conversion ratio goes to crap? Do you feel cheated?

 

[cyberworkspace]

well, i'd say that it is anyhow a common misconception, that any conversion rate should hold true within small numbers.

there are so many factors determining market movements and market participants decision making, that you should only take for granted what you have experienced over a longer period of time.

anything else would mean, that there are a) no new competitors entering the market, b) no seasonal influences happening, c) same demographics of your customer base to only name a few parts of the function that determines your turnover rate.

i am pretty sure, that you will see these "patterns" with hi's and lo's much more frequently and cool, once you have like 6 month, 12 month averages at hands. at the moment e.g., st. patricks day, i would believe business is bad anyhow as everybody is out getting drunk

 

[mystickcal]

well, i'd say that it is anyhow a common misconception, that any conversion rate should hold true within small numbers.

there are so many factors determining market movements and market participants decision making, that you should only take for granted what you have experienced over a longer period of time.

anything else would mean, that there are a) no new competitors entering the market, b) no seasonal influences happening, c) same demographics of your customer base to only name a few parts of the function that determines your turnover rate.

i am pretty sure, that you will see these "patterns" with hi's and lo's much more frequently and cool, once you have like 6 month, 12 month averages at hands. at the moment e.g., st. patricks day, i would believe business is bad anyhow as everybody is out getting drunk

That is it sucks while they are all out, but when all these drunk people get home, they will be spending money without realizing it! haha j/k

 

[threehundred]

I'm not saying the number of clicks are down. What does a holiday have to do with a conversion rate? I mean, I said i have 150 clicks, and 11 leads. Then 150 more clicks, and 0 leads. The law of averages says things like that don't happen. That's the point of eCPC. I understand there are variables, but variables affect both clicks and leads, not just leads.

 

[lucab]

no i guess sometimes the factors that affect both clicks and leads don't affect both. i am so drunk lol

 

[cyberworkspace]

I'm not saying the number of clicks are down. What does a holiday have to do with a conversion rate? I mean, I said i have 150 clicks, and 11 leads. Then 150 more clicks, and 0 leads. The law of averages says things like that don't happen. That's the point of eCPC. I understand there are variables, but variables affect both clicks and leads, not just leads.

rofl. not to be rude, but maybe you have not quite understood the law of averages or the law of large numbers, as they are not really applicable in the way you are referring to them

as i said before, there are large differences possible due to small changes that are way beyond your control.

regarding clicks, e.g. your ad ranks down at spot 7 or 8. you get the same amount of clicks as you did in position 3-4 but the quality of clicks is much less. dito same amount of clicks, less conversions.

regarding conversions, e.g. demographically, you receive the same clicks (and purchasing power) but the ringtone in your advert is just not cool anymore. or it is end of the month. or. or. or.

so, you cannot construct a probability function out of your experience for a couple of days. you need to take into account everything you witness including the "bad"-days, and then you can see your "law of averages" in effect (not from a strictly mathematical perspective though, as changing the environment would not be allowed ).

if it wiuld possible, what you are looking for, you would be one step ahead from ruling the stock market. a perfect prediction system for market behaviour, that only moves up in profits. because if you substitute your ringtones with stocks, that is exactly what you seem to be looking for. a riskfree roi. but there is none.

 

[emp]

If ya want to go with averages, take variance into account as well.

::emp::

 

[threehundred]

The thing is, I understand exactly what you are saying as far as I have to have a large mound of data in order to be able to decipher between good and bad days, so that I may be able to decide if this just happens to be a bad day. Things like conversion rate, click through rate, position, etc. - I'm sure all of these things play a huge role in conversion.

But the thing is, I have a presell page. The first half of the day, up until 1pm, I had 150 different "eyes" that made it past my page, and on to the merchant page. So as far as initial click through from my landing page to their merchant page, that's 150.

Later that day, for the last 8 hours, I have 150 more clicks onto the merchant landing page, from my page, and no one converts.

If over the history of my landing pages and ad copy, which I have nearly 3 months of data on, I have an avg eCPC of $.55.

I understand you have good days and bad days, and holidays, weather, tv shows all affect your outcome. But in this case, its same day. The leads are pouring in, then they halt completely? The click through rate didn't change, the number of clicks didn't change, my avg position has never changed, i'm using 2 different PPC sources equally.

With all that said, it is highly unlikely that you would have a good normal conversion rate for the first half of the day, then it would completely go to shit the next.


I've had experience in the past with a different CPA company, where I'd be killing it all day, then in the afternoon, my leads would really start picking up as kids were getting home from school. I'm talking $400 - $500 per hour I'm clearing on leads up until like 9pm, when the tracking would "freeze up". They would say, "oh the leads are still being tracked, even though they aren't showing up in stats." Then the stats would update, and i'd have a shit ton of clicks, and a whole lot less leads.

This happened 4 days in a row, on the 5th day, it happened at night again, i switched my links to a competitor, and the leads POURED in. They were fucking me, and although I had no proof, I knew.

This current situation feels like the same thing.

 

[illkity]

So why the fuck did you waste everyones time with you original post?

 

[SonicReducer]

Welcome to affiliate marketing.

 

[threehundred]

So why the fuck did you waste everyones time with you original post?

You signed up to say that? Fuck off.


CyberWorkSpace, I appreciate the constructive responses you gave. I am not completely new to affiliate marketing, I was just venting about this, as it seems fishy to me. Thank you for taking the time to respond.

 

[cyberworkspace]

CyberWorkSpace, I appreciate the constructive responses you gave. I am not completely new to affiliate marketing, I was just venting about this, as it seems fishy to me. Thank you for taking the time to respond.

thanks, and i am not feeling pissed like that other fella

now that you explained yourself i can share your concern. as you have valid data collected already, i can't think of a reason why such a strange behaviour would all of a sudden come up. any chance that you get a tracking link onto the landing page of the merchant? only this way you could be absolutely sure. but then again: which ringtone provider would offer to do that

 

[Sandrax]

I always count how much leads in one month. Not per day or per week. You get a nice average if you count your leads per month. The ratio for a certain affiliate program of mine has approx 1:950 . Where the traffic is coming from is very important though, ratios will drop dramatically if you are not carefull. I remember around christmas and new year it was bad. Ratios down to 1:2800 or so.....

 

[skylark]

The thing is, I understand exactly what you are saying as far as I have to have a large mound of data in order to be able to decipher between good and bad days, so that I may be able to decide if this just happens to be a bad day. Things like conversion rate, click through rate, position, etc. - I'm sure all of these things play a huge role in conversion.

But the thing is, I have a presell page. The first half of the day, up until 1pm, I had 150 different "eyes" that made it past my page, and on to the merchant page. So as far as initial click through from my landing page to their merchant page, that's 150.

Later that day, for the last 8 hours, I have 150 more clicks onto the merchant landing page, from my page, and no one converts.

If over the history of my landing pages and ad copy, which I have nearly 3 months of data on, I have an avg eCPC of $.55.

I understand you have good days and bad days, and holidays, weather, tv shows all affect your outcome. But in this case, its same day. The leads are pouring in, then they halt completely? The click through rate didn't change, the number of clicks didn't change, my avg position has never changed, i'm using 2 different PPC sources equally.

With all that said, it is highly unlikely that you would have a good normal conversion rate for the first half of the day, then it would completely go to shit the next.


I've had experience in the past with a different CPA company, where I'd be killing it all day, then in the afternoon, my leads would really start picking up as kids were getting home from school. I'm talking $400 - $500 per hour I'm clearing on leads up until like 9pm, when the tracking would "freeze up". They would say, "oh the leads are still being tracked, even though they aren't showing up in stats." Then the stats would update, and i'd have a shit ton of clicks, and a whole lot less leads.

This happened 4 days in a row, on the 5th day, it happened at night again, i switched my links to a competitor, and the leads POURED in. They were fucking me, and although I had no proof, I knew.

This current situation feels like the same thing.

I'm experiencing the same thing as well. My leads have just fell off! I applied to another affilate network and can't wait to swtich my links to see the result. Can you mention the affiliate network you're having the issue with?