So looking at stats this morning, I see that tomorrow marks the 4th year anniversary of my muscle offer as a CPA/free trial offer. I *think* it is the longest continuously running offer in the space (I don't count Force Factor, since they shut down their affiliate program for months at a time and coast on retail sales). Add to that some skin offers, domestic and int'l, than have been running for several years themselves, and I figure I'm qualified to offer a few hard-earned observations on the industry. I feel like I've been doing this for a decade, its been a tough grind. So, a few observations:
1) CPA/continuity offers are going to change, or die - Long gone are the days of eazy 2-step flogs with remnant banner/Pulse360 traffic being instant ROI. No, I never ran that way , but I've seen enough of them come and go to feel pretty confident in saying those days are coming to an end, and the sooner the better. FTC/AGs are the 2nd biggest threat to them. Visa/MC are the First.
I can think of probably 100+ offers I've seen come and go, some making a huge splash briefly, that ultimately lost their MIDs and vanished, often leaving lots of unpaid networks and affiliates in their wake. Once you can't process with Visa or MC with your first merchant account, you die, simple as that. Increased focus on chargeback rates, and detailed language about how negative option must be disclosed (Hint: you can't bury your T&C on a diff page, use pre-checked boxes, and rebill 3 days later for 4 different offers they never saw). There is a storm coming, and Visa/MC are going to wipe out a lot of unprepared offers. Even offshore MIDs are only temporarily going to protect new guys to the space with chargeback rates above 1%, and it is reaaalllyy hard to stay under that rate for any continuity offer even running super-legit. Newcomers thinking they are going to cash in and keep their processing? Meh, they don't have a chance.
FTC/AG concerns were largely ignored by the actual affiliates pushing these offers for years, for good reason: They typically only came after the Advertisers (Offer Owners) themselves, with an occasional wrist-slap of the Networks involved if their behavior was too far over the line. That's changed now too. Most of the big networks have been recipients of CIDs and fines, and had to agree to stringent new terms, to stay in business. Coincidentally, most of those Networks now only have a fraction as many employees as they did a few years ago. This is why so many of the Networks that built their staffs on the revenue from CPA trial offers back in the day now wont even run them at all. Affiliates are being sued individually, and losing their cash, cars, and houses for their behavior. Add in some angry lawyers representing famous people (who don't like seeing their face used to sling berriez), and you have a much different and scarier environment than it was 4 years ago, before all the bad guys gave the industry a huge black eye. If you are thinking of getting into space now with no processing history, no retail presence, and no clue how the new regulations will affect you because you think it will be easy money? One word of advice: Don't.
Next up: #2, It's all about the numbers....
1) CPA/continuity offers are going to change, or die - Long gone are the days of eazy 2-step flogs with remnant banner/Pulse360 traffic being instant ROI. No, I never ran that way , but I've seen enough of them come and go to feel pretty confident in saying those days are coming to an end, and the sooner the better. FTC/AGs are the 2nd biggest threat to them. Visa/MC are the First.
I can think of probably 100+ offers I've seen come and go, some making a huge splash briefly, that ultimately lost their MIDs and vanished, often leaving lots of unpaid networks and affiliates in their wake. Once you can't process with Visa or MC with your first merchant account, you die, simple as that. Increased focus on chargeback rates, and detailed language about how negative option must be disclosed (Hint: you can't bury your T&C on a diff page, use pre-checked boxes, and rebill 3 days later for 4 different offers they never saw). There is a storm coming, and Visa/MC are going to wipe out a lot of unprepared offers. Even offshore MIDs are only temporarily going to protect new guys to the space with chargeback rates above 1%, and it is reaaalllyy hard to stay under that rate for any continuity offer even running super-legit. Newcomers thinking they are going to cash in and keep their processing? Meh, they don't have a chance.
FTC/AG concerns were largely ignored by the actual affiliates pushing these offers for years, for good reason: They typically only came after the Advertisers (Offer Owners) themselves, with an occasional wrist-slap of the Networks involved if their behavior was too far over the line. That's changed now too. Most of the big networks have been recipients of CIDs and fines, and had to agree to stringent new terms, to stay in business. Coincidentally, most of those Networks now only have a fraction as many employees as they did a few years ago. This is why so many of the Networks that built their staffs on the revenue from CPA trial offers back in the day now wont even run them at all. Affiliates are being sued individually, and losing their cash, cars, and houses for their behavior. Add in some angry lawyers representing famous people (who don't like seeing their face used to sling berriez), and you have a much different and scarier environment than it was 4 years ago, before all the bad guys gave the industry a huge black eye. If you are thinking of getting into space now with no processing history, no retail presence, and no clue how the new regulations will affect you because you think it will be easy money? One word of advice: Don't.
Next up: #2, It's all about the numbers....
