March Madness

lebron

lebron

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Jul 31, 2009
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Thought I'd start a thread for all those gay webmasters that are into college basketball.

Below I've attached my bracket. If you're looking to enter a few betting pools and don't have a bracket yet then I recommend you using mine. One of my hobbies is advanced statistics (moneyball) for basketball. Past two years I've won every betting pool I've been in and always have my brackets finish in the top 5 percentile on ESPN.

This year predictions are a little more difficult since outright winners are not that easy to predict. Hence, I'm also attaching a spreadsheet pic of my numbers and probabilities of different teams winning. Use it however you like.


Most probable bracket:
Br3rjuZ.jpg


Numbers that led there:
2wJddR0.jpg
 


What's the story with Louisville? I haven't watched much ball this year. They're a 4 seed but everyone's picking them to win the tourney
 
Imagine that, the first bracket has the sweet 16 consisting of all four number one, two, three and four seeds.
 
jeffrey said:
Imagine that, the first bracket has the sweet 16 consisting of all four number one, two, three and four seeds.
Click to expand...

It's a bracket of highest probability and chances are will win most betting pools. Is it going to be a perfect bracket? No. However I'm not going to put shit teams higher just to mix things up. In previous years I had picks outside the top 4 making it. This year the stats say that's unlikely.
 
lebron said:
In previous years I had picks outside the top 4 making it. This year the stats say that's unlikely.
Click to expand...

For each individual team on its own it is unlikely, but according to your chart there are more than enough teams outside the top 4 with at least a 25% chance of making the sweet 16, and even 2 teams with an 11 seed with at least 14% odds.

I'm not a math wizard, but if 8 teams had a 25% chance of getting there, then the likely outcome would be for 2 of them to do it. If 10 teams each have 10% odds, then likely 1 of them would make it, etc.
 
groneg said:
What's the story with Louisville? I haven't watched much ball this year. They're a 4 seed but everyone's picking them to win the tourney
Click to expand...

Maybe because they won last year, even though some of those players are now gone.
 
lebron said:
It's a bracket of highest probability and chances are will win most betting pools. Is it going to be a perfect bracket? No. However I'm not going to put shit teams higher just to mix things up. In previous years I had picks outside the top 4 making it. This year the stats say that's unlikely.
Click to expand...
March MADNESS isn't about probability. If you watched college basketball more, you'd already know that.
 
jeffrey said:
March MADNESS isn't about probability. If you watched college basketball more, you'd already know that.
Click to expand...

Yes and no.

For example, It is highly improbable that a 16 seed beats a 1 seed. It has yet to happen in the history of the tournament. The 2,15 matchup is another pretty good bet. So is keeping a team ranked 10 or below out of your final four picks.

But yes -- One Shining Moment -- I get that...
 
I agree with Jeffrey having the top 16 seeds in the Sweet 16 isn't really picking a bracket. There was something like at least 2 double digit seeds in the Sweet 16 15 of that last 18 years so you know some Cinderella team is crashing the party. Goal is to pick the right under dog.

I got SF Austin and NC State both upsetting number 5 seeds and New Mexico to get by Kansas in second round since the lost of Joel Emiid is going to hurt them.
 
So the person with a correctly filled out an online bracket will win $1 billion.

There are 9.2 quintillion bracket combinations.

I'm sure someone here had the same idea I had.

You don't have to say anything, just give this post a like if you did what I think you did.
 
3 of 4 #5's went down. Should have been 4 of 4 if NC State could hit a free throw. Insane!
 
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