I don't think the industry itself is a bubble, but like James P said, there are specific niches that seem like a bubble to me. I think even specific techniques (i.e., flogs) are bubbles.
However, even knowing that they're bubbles, you just have to ask yourself - are you willing to take the risk for the potential to make a killing? Look at the guys who went all-in on grant offers here on Wickedfire; yeah, Google, Facbeook, the FTC, etc., all ended up going after them one way or another, but they managed to make a killing in the meantime. It's like anything - how risk-adverse are you? If you don't mind the possibility of having all of your campaigns shut down by Google and having to start from scratch, ride those bubbles for all their worth! Or, if you'd rather have a slow, but steady, source of income, stick with the more conservative methods.
Few people seem to want to post real numbers, so here goes - I started reading up on and researching affiliate marketing mid-2008 and really went after it starting in January.
January 2009, I saw maybe $50 worth of commissions. I've had some good months and some bad months since then, with June being my best month yet, at roughly $10,000 worth of commissions. I aim for a 100% ROI, so my actual profit was roughly $5k.
Because of other projects I'm working on, I don't feel like I'm really working full time at affiliate marketing - and those other projects are also generating income, so I'm happy with where I'm at right now, which would be the equivalant of a $60,000 per year salary from affiliate marketing. Of course, I'm busting my ass trying to learn more and scale up to the level I know I can reach - I had one day where I hit about $600 in profit - in a single day. That motivates you like nothing else.
So, six months of hard work to get to $60k per year - it's not the massive success stories people use to peddle various training programs, but I think it's fairly realistic.
One question to ask yourself, though, is why are you getting into it? Because you've heard you can make a ton of money, or because you have some interest in websites, marketing, etc.?
There's nothing wrong doing it just for the money, but I think one thing that's really helped me is my background in programming, web development and even a bit of marketing. I enjoy (some of) the work that's involved with affilate marketing, and I already had a bit of a background before I got into the business that helped me learn the ropes. You can start from scratch, but if you are, you'd better either love what you're doing or have some decent cash to invest.
Good luck!
