So I made a drunk bet last year...

SUP3RNOVA

SUP3RNOVA

Goober Gay
Mar 5, 2007
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What started as a pong tournament ended (typically) with political raging. There was also a side-bet of $50 that Obama wouldn't be re-elected. Am I out $150?

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At the time, I thought there would be a candidate that would best Obama's shitty first term. Now not so sure...

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Win or lose, I wouldn't be too worried.

By that time, your $100 won't even get you a loaf of bread.
 
I've pointed this out on here before, but I'll do it again..

Going by Gallup polling, Obama's lowest approval rating he has hit is still higher than the lowest for each of the previous 8 presidents. We have to go back nearly 50 years to JFK to find a president whose lowest approval was higher than Obama. Congress on the other hand, has their lowest approval ever.

Also, Obama wins in just about all polls pitting him against the republican candidates.

I don't know if it's wishful thinking or what, but a lot of people seem to be in denial about Obama being the clear front runner.
 
Moxie said:
I've pointed this out on here before, but I'll do it again..

Going by Gallup polling, Obama's lowest approval rating he has hit is still higher than the lowest for each of the previous 8 presidents. We have to go back nearly 50 years to JFK to find a president whose lowest approval was higher than Obama. Congress on the other hand, has their lowest approval ever.

Also, Obama wins in just about all polls pitting him against the republican candidates.

I don't know if it's wishful thinking or what, but a lot of people seem to be in denial about Obama being the clear front runner.
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Approval ratings don't tell the whole story. The question for any election is whose base is more motivated. The left is experiencing a bit of a revival, but is not rallying around Obama really. They haven't liked a lot of what he's done. The right meanwhile really wants to vote against him and appears to be well organized and enthusiastic. He hasn't been doing spectacular among Independents either, so there's a good chance he's going to have issues this election.
 
xmcp123 said:
Approval ratings don't tell the whole story. The question for any election is whose base is more motivated. The left is experiencing a bit of a revival, but is not rallying around Obama really. They haven't liked a lot of what he's done. The right meanwhile really wants to vote against him and appears to be well organized and enthusiastic. He hasn't been doing spectacular among Independents either, so there's a good chance he's going to have issues this election.
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Most polls are of "likely voters", though of course when someone answers that way on the phone it doesn't mean they will actually end up doing so. Obama loses when polled against "generic republican candidate", but the enthusiasm wanes when actual names get plugged in.

A lot of their base might have a boner to vote against Obama, but then many go soft at the idea of voting for a Massachusetts Mormon who enacted a government health care plan.

We also have take into account the electoral college system. The republican candidate only has a few states with over 10 electoral votes that they can count on, and Texas is the only big one with 38 votes. Obama is almost guaranteed California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois and Michigan, which equal 134 votes. So in some ways, a fired up base only matters in the tossup states like Florida and Ohio.
 
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