silver

DanielQ

DanielQ

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Jun 29, 2008
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A police state.
Did I miss the silver boat?

Doing some reading it seems there is a large group of people who think sliver is over valued and another large group who think it's way undervalued.

Silver reached a 30-year high today.

Do you think it's too late to invest in silver? Physical or etfs?

Do you think it's better to treat silver purchases in the current market as more of an investment or a way to combat inflation?

Other thoughts on the silver market?
 


imo there is a crushing amount of silver supply about to come online.

Supply will come from about a dozen elephant mines that are in construction or feasibility currently. It will also come from mine expansions and it will come from garimpeiro mines that no one can keep track of. Silver forms in veins, it's very easy for small scale miners to go underground and rapidly increase production in many of the old workings that were previously mines.

This information is available in multiple silver industry websites.

Even despite these points, when you buy anything at the highest price it has been in 30 years (highest price it has ever been if you exclude the 1980's Hunt brothers price manipulation.) - You're taking a big risk.

Yes imo inflation is coming, but even with this slight tailwind the headwinds around silver are too strong.
 
in the earth, gold is 17 times as rare as silver. Historically the gold to silver price ratio has been 15, closely matching the naturally occurring rate. In the last 100 years the ratio has varied from around 20 to 70. Today, with silver at a 30 year high, it is still only at 40x gold to silver ratio.

Current estimates range from there being more gold above ground than silver to there being 6x as much silver above ground then silver. The primary reason for this is that silver is used up and destroyed by industry, and gold is not.

Therefore, silver is currently more rare relative to gold, than it has ever been. And yet, gold is still trading at double the the lowest gold to silver ratio of the last hundred years and nearly 3x the historical ratio.

In other words, unless gold crashes, silver should continue to shoot way way up, possibly to the point where it reflects its actual rarity, which would put it at between $233 and $1434 per ounce, if we believe the estimates about currently available above ground silver. Do I really think its going to go to $200 an ounce? No, but I'm still buying now just as much as I was when it was $14 an ounce until the point where the ratio gets closer to 30x or until gold drops.

that's my "way undervalued" take on it.
 
Dan, i myself just bought $6k worth of silver 2 days ago, when it was around $34 per ounce. check out Kitco Forums for some information.

It is a bit high at the moment, but it's all how you look at it. Many experts are calling for $50 silver this year, in that case the current price is a bargain.

My advice would be to buy now, but you can wait for a slight dip, which could happen. Personally i jumped right on at $34 and thought, well if it dips, it's not a big deal, but if it keeps going up i'm going to kick myself in the ass

EDIT: here's a good point from the Kitco Forums, just substitute $34 for $36

A lot of people worry a lot about that problem, but it is a non-problem.

CASE 1: You buy at $34 and the price goes to $38. You feel like a genius.
CASE 2: You buy at $34 and the price goes to $29. You feel philosophical, but now you are invested, so you wait to see what else happens.
CASE 3: You don't buy at $34 and the price goes to $38. You weep and refuse to pay that much and you wait for a dip and the market moves on without you.
CASE 4: You don't buy at $34 and the price goes to $29. You feel like you have dodged a falling sword, and you buy, but you know in your heart that you made a risky move.
SUMMARY: if you have silver in your hand the ending will happy.
ADDITIONAL NOTE: A day will come when you can't remember what you paid for your precious metals. You'll just be glad you have some.
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leadsupplier said:
EDIT: here's a good point from the Kitco Forums
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This same fluffy logic was used back in 1999.

The confidence of those "gold-bugs" has been bolstered by the recent rise.

The time to buy gold and silver was a few years ago. Unless we see hyper-inflation you've missed the boat.
 
LittleMike said:
This same fluffy logic was used back in 1999.

The confidence of those "gold-bugs" has been bolstered by the recent rise.

The time to buy gold and silver was a few years ago. Unless we see hyper-inflation you've missed the boat.
Click to expand...

just out of curiosity so i can reference this thread later, how high does an ounce of silver need to go for you to think this statement today is wrong? If it gets to $50 per ounce (a 42% increase from today) would you admit you didn't know what you were talking about?

Also, even if you bought gold as late as 6 months ago you are still up 13% today and 24% over the last year. 24% in a year is freaking great.
 
conv3rsion said:
If it gets to $50 per ounce (a 42% increase from today) would you admit you didn't know what you were talking about?
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For sure. But I'm 95% sure it won't.

Rising prices don't make a good investment. They sure didn't in the tech bubble.

The higher the price gets the riskier the proposition.

Right now silver is at the highest it has ever been.

Good luck. You'll need it.
 
LittleMike said:
For sure. But I'm 95% sure it won't.

Rising prices don't make a good investment. They sure didn't in the tech bubble.

The higher the price gets the riskier the proposition.

Right now silver is at the highest it has ever been.

Good luck. You'll need it.
Click to expand...

where is your logic? tech bubbles and precious metals cannot even be compared.

the more money the US prints, the higher silver prices are going to go. Silver has historically held a 16-1 ratio with gold prices. It has not corrected itself yet, and that is what we are witnessing. also the all time high of $50 back in 1980 for silver, is the equivalent of about $150 today...

do some research before making these ignorant comments
 
As long as the US economy is shit the metals will continue to improve. It doesnt matter if it goes up, down, or sideways at the end of the day ask yourself what else would you spend that $50, $500,$1000, $10,000 on? If the answer is you don't know, or bills, or some other BS item then go ahead and buy it. If you dont save or invest your money on something you will never have any money.
 
leadsupplier said:
do some research before making these ignorant comments
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I've done some research. It involved more than flicking through an internet forum.

The MAJOR problem is this:

ag3650nys.gif


The price is at an all time high.

Mining companies are finding it easier than ever to raise capital.

More and more silver mines are going to come online to take advantage of the large spread between cost of production per ounce and the current price per ounce.

Not to mention the basic indicators like, when everyone (neophytes like you) is talking about investing in a specific asset class (gold, silver) it's a easy indicator the market is overdone or will be soon.

So I stand by my previous statement. Unless we see 10%+ inflation, silver will not go up. (Though I do think Gold could rise moderately from here, but I still wouldn't invest at this level.)
 
leadsupplier said:
Gold looked like a bubbl a lt 1k .. look where that's gone
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the US housing bubble lasted several years, up to a decade or so and it finally popped. just because something is still retarded high and has been there for a few years now doesn't mean it isn't a bubble.
 
i'm not saying it's not a bubble, gold is definitely in a bubble, but silver has to catch up w/ that bubble, when silver prices are high, i can sell and profit?
 
During the .com bubble, everybody and his brother was buying tech stocks.

During the housing bubble, everybody and his brother was buying more house than they could afford.

Now, I don't know about you guys, but I only know 1 person IRL that owns silver (besides myself). I'll believe its a bubble when the average Joe starts getting in on it.
 
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