Spam isn't the problem. The fact that people create sites to get paid for clicks because it's easier than trying to convert visitors into sales or leads is the problem. What they're doing is cutting out the ability for arbiters and the like to leech off advertisers by unloading garbage traffic on AdSense and getting paid whether they convert or not.
People will do the same thing with CPA ads on Adsense. And they will drive traffic to it. The problem is likely that more legitimate publishers will not find the ROI as good and will avoid CPA payouts.
Going CPA eliminates the ability of bottom feeding AdSense publishers to keep doing this. Contrary to what you want to believe, it works out for everyone who's worth anything.
Lots of made-for-adsense sites drive highly targetted traffic to advertisers. I am not sure you clearly understand this. Just because a site looks like crap does not mean the traffic it is delivering is crap. In fact I suspect a good made-for-adsense page is delivering better targetted traffic then some joe publisher who has his own website with a few ads mixed in here and there.
You may not be able to make a living off your shitty MFA sites anymore, but good riddence, you're only a burden on the entire business model.
I don't make money off shitty adsense sites myself. I make money off affiliate marketing, and I know there is a LOT more in succesfully marketing some of these shitty advertisers products and websites than just throwing up a badly worded ad copy CPA ad in an adsense block. The net result is this is not going to have the impact some people might suspect.
As for the affiliate networks, if Google can algorithmically streamline the entire lead gen process from advertiser campaign creation to conversion tracking to ad targeting, what value do the existing networks provide? The simple answer is none. Advertisers don't need your affiliate base anymore, publishers don't need to do their own ad targeting anymore and neither need you to keep track of the numbers for them.
You are dreaming? Are you are a succesful affiliate marketer? I suspect not. I am. I know what it takes to make sales and convert leads. Google is all about automation they are not going to be holding any hands. If the companies were so good at marketing their products online themselves, affiliate marketers would not be kicking their asses delivering them their own leads. They can do what we do know, but they do not do it for a reason. I already said they will use it. Why not. It is not a lose lose for them. Any fixed cost lead they can get is a big win. So they will use it and they will take every single lead they can get.
The problem is the publishers are not going to like it, and so the opportunity is not going to be there. The people who are MOST succesful marketing affiliate ads on websites now do it carefully and with knowledge. You need to match the offers to the customer base. Google's Alogrithim will be horrible at that. Plus it is not an even playing field. You think people who are getting Google CPA commissions are going to get top tier pay outs? Good luck with that. You will still be better making your own deals. You think affiliate marketing is suddenly going to change to a 1 tier field where everyone gets the same?
The smart marketers will take advantage of the google program by throwing up made for Googleads and perhaps mixing some of their own ads in as well. It will create spam equivelent to what you see in made-for-adsense sites now. You can believe it or not, but ask the made-for-adsense people here.
As far as the issue of "spam", the real issue with that is that it creates garbage traffic. It's a problem for advertisers. If "spammers" are paid on a CPA basis, the burden to turn a profit is shifted to the "spammer".
Not just shifted to the spammer, but all web publishers. When Johnny Website finds out he is better off with PPC because his traffic is not really targeted properly for the CPA ads showing up, he is going to dump the program. It takes more work to make money off of CPA ads, but if you know what you are doing you can make a lot more. The average web publisher does not fall into that category. Adsense PPC is easy for everyone. They don't have to do anything. You just change your current adsense blocks to CPA blocks and good luck with all that.
Not to mention with no percentage basis, some merchants publishers will be getting ripped off by advertisers who normally market on a percentage basis but also use a low flat fee in Adsense.
The advertiser wins either way, but the "spammer" is forced to provide traffic that converts or risks a negative ROI. At that point, is the "spam" really doing any damage?
Your argument is based on the flawed logic that all made-for-adsense sites deliver bad traffic. With Google's current systems, if you traffic does not convert your revenue gets slashed severely. Made-for-adsense people are all about money. Not to mention by the time someone gets to an advertiser through a made-for-adsense site they have essentially double-opted in. They have already had to twice specifically want to find information on that subject and pursued it with some degree of aggressiveness. Someone who is reading The Peach Canning Forums and sees a CPA ad for Country Vacation Travel, is likely someone who is just curious, and not serious. On the other hand, the Made-for-adsense user likely typed in "Country Vacation Travel" in a seach engine, and then again selected a specific ad form a made-for-adsense page. Which one of those people are more likely to convert.
Trust me, I used to believe like you, and I was wrong.