Facebook IPO - Friday, 18.05.2011

There are only 2 ways to level out the P/E:

1) Increase Revenue (E = Earnings) at a higher rate than your stock prices is rising. So example, increase your revenue by 50% while your stock prices is rising by 20%. Eventually you'll get there, but lets be serious for a second. The numbers they are playing at, means a couple of things. If their only source of revenue is active Facebook users, then that means they will start raping the audience by increasing advertisement on-site, or utilizing their personal information more for off-site advertising. In the end the Facebook user will eventually get tired of getting their shit exposed, and start posting and interacting less and less.

2) Decrease stock price (P = Price), well I think we all know what a pump and dump scheme looks like, so I shouldn't have to elaborate. God forbid someone creates a hype piece on Zuckerberg getting a cold, and that effects markets world wide, since your retirement fund's manager decided to get in on the hype.

Kids, always look at the long term ability of a company, and ask yourself, are the users happy? Can Facebook become a Myspace or Friendster? If too many people are running in the same direction, that's usually a sight of a running with sheep, and let's face it, the underwriting banks like Chase, are the wolves here.

And the comparison with Google and Facebook is completely nonsensical. If people want information, they NEED to go on Google, since there really is no alternative, and they are giving the most accurate results. Facebook on the other hand is a playground for people with nothing to do except be on Facebook all day. So there will come a time, when eventually people will be less and less active, since the MASS of people don't NEED to be on Facebook, like they need to go to Google for something. Facebook will still be around, just like TV is around, and Radio is around as a means of communication. Unless they come up with a game changer at the 25th hour, like compete with Adsense, which… I don't know… Maybe they can pull that off… maybe.
 


Facebook on the other hand is a playground for people with nothing to do except be on Facebook all day. So there will come a time, when eventually people will be less and less active, since the MASS of people don't NEED to be on Facebook, like they need to go to Google for something. Facebook will still be around, just like TV is around, and Radio is around as a means of communication. Unless they come up with a game changer at the 25th hour, like compete with Adsense, which… I don't know… Maybe they can pull that off… maybe.
Excellence.

My overall view on FB changed from inevitable dominance to inevitable fail when I heard simply that "kids don't like Facebook". Zero cool factor and inevitably obsolete.

But praise the behemoth for putting a dent in Oprah's empire. Married moms love FB. I don't think Facebook will ever lose them.

So I don't really think there is a future for FB, just yesterday's massive success and today it's time for MZ & co. to get paid.
 
Happy to short this monstrosity.

You won't be able to. Shorting is dependent on having a lender that you can borrow shares from. This lender does not exist for you.

You will need to take a very large position and pay insane fees to short even in the months following IPO.
 
Excellence.

My overall view on FB changed from inevitable dominance to inevitable fail when I heard simply that "kids don't like Facebook". Zero cool factor and inevitably obsolete.

But praise the behemoth for putting a dent in Oprah's empire. Married moms love FB. I don't think Facebook will ever lose them.

So I don't really think there is a future for FB, just yesterday's massive success and today it's time for MZ & co. to get paid.


So you base your investing advice on something that you heard, somewhere and that "something" is not backed by any real facts?

cool story bro.

also, gl shorting it, I hope you don't do it on leverage and lose your house. But based on what you just typed you are not investing/trading at all.
 
Excellence.

My overall view on FB changed from inevitable dominance to inevitable fail when I heard simply that "kids don't like Facebook". Zero cool factor and inevitably obsolete.

But praise the behemoth for putting a dent in Oprah's empire. Married moms love FB. I don't think Facebook will ever lose them.

So I don't really think there is a future for FB, just yesterday's massive success and today it's time for MZ & co. to get paid.

But "kids" will eventually be married moms, no?

That's like saying "Assisted Living" is failed business because people in their 30s dont use them...
 
Shorting an IPO is like cow-tipping a saguaro cactus. Not advised.
Know where I was when Google went public? Sitting about 10 yards away from Larry Page who was there to hang spend a few minutes on Morgan Stanley's (lead underwriter) trading desk. "Dutch auction" ...so gay.

My "book" was some healthcare, oil service, and a smattering of technology stocks. All I did that day was scratch my balls and observe the Google madness. While it was kind of cool, I recall grousing with just about everyone there that we witnessed some douchebag cross the threshold into billionairedom.

So, while I don't quite understand the cactus reference I do have access to charting services, a rough idea of what might transpire the first few days and I promise you I'll try and not get hurt while I try and find my levels.

If anyone's been watching CNBC in recent weeks - the coverage has been nauseating. This thread has raised more reservations about the deal than that channel has in a month.

I caught Warren Buffett admiring Mark Zuckerberg's leadership ability or vision or whatever (I think this was after he caught some flack addressing a roadshow meeting in a hoodie). I think Warren is readying himself for death. (and he's not investing, though Berkshire-Hathaway isn't much in the way of IPOs)
 
So you base your investing advice on something that you heard, somewhere and that "something" is not backed by any real facts?

cool story bro.

also, gl shorting it, I hope you don't do it on leverage and lose your house. But based on what you just typed you are not investing/trading at all.

Those moms go to LinkedIn to reconnect with former co-workers when it's time to network for a new job; they go to Google when they think they've found a funny lumps on their chest, to research schools for their kids, to plan vacations, and to score divorce lawyers.

Facebook? That's for posting pictures of kid's soccer games and laughing at Kim Kardashian.

And by the way, when is the last time any of us went hunting for new Facebook friends? Like I said, when it comes to FB today is time to get paid for yesterday's stunning success, not to invest in the future. (Stifling a laugh at that last notion.)

Call me Schlomo Shortsky.
 
But "kids" will eventually be married moms, no?

That's like saying "Assisted Living" is failed business because people in their 30s dont use them...
Does anyone else here think facebook will spend the next 30 years as a black hole of social networks, so dominant not a ray of emerging alternative platforms can escape its gravitational pull?

No offense, but if I could I'd short you.
 
You won't be able to. Shorting is dependent on having a lender that you can borrow shares from. This lender does not exist for you.

You will need to take a very large position and pay insane fees to short even in the months following IPO.
I guess I wasn't clear - I'm not trying to short Facebook at the open or even the first week or two of trading. I'll pick my spots and take positions for, I imagine, weeks at a time.
 
ponzi-scheme-2.jpg


I'll leave this here.

Enjoy fellas
 
Excellence.

My overall view on FB changed from inevitable dominance to inevitable fail when I heard simply that "kids don't like Facebook". Zero cool factor and inevitably obsolete.

But praise the behemoth for putting a dent in Oprah's empire. Married moms love FB. I don't think Facebook will ever lose them.

So I don't really think there is a future for FB, just yesterday's massive success and today it's time for MZ & co. to get paid.

Exactly sir.

What's critical here is that the cool factor is gone for kids. Kids/young adult whatever you want to call us under 30 yr olds, if shit starts getting lame, it will be like the Myspace Ghost Town. This is a fair warning. Usually the older you get, the less agile you are to changes, and being hip to what's going on, so yeah, it's important. If the future generation is say facebook is not cool anymore, (Man using that word "cool" sounds retarded), then facebook has one foot in the grave.

It's time for Zuckerberg and Co, to get their "make monies online" now, and that means by taking your investor money, since investors are foolish enough to invest in a stagnate product, that they obviously know very little about. A lot of investors are going to get so burnt by this, I already feel sorry for them...
 
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