Countdown to New Gold Era... Jan 1 2013

lincolndsp

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Basel III A Game Changer For Both Gold And Faux AAA-AA Sovereign Debt - Seeking Alpha

Why the turnaround, and at prices much higher than those at which the central banks sold? Because the rules have changed: The Basel Committee on Banking, the body that sets the standards followed by the industrialized world’s central banks (and the commercial banks they oversee), has reclassified gold bullion as a “tier one asset.” According to the Basel Committee’s new rule, known as “Basel III,” as of the New Year, gold will be counted at 100 percent of its market value when a bank’s assets are audited. Moreover, under Basel III, a bank’s tier one assets must rise from 4 percent to 6 percent of its total assets. This means that many banks are likely to replace substantial portions of their mortgage-backed securities and bond portfolios with gold.
Basel III’s increase of gold to full market value doubles the value of gold reserves held by banks (central and commercial). Previously, according to the dictates of Basel I (in 1988) and Basel II (in 2004), gold was a “tier three asset”, counted at only 50 percent of market value on the banks’ books. Interestingly, those same Basel I and Basel II rules valued government bonds and mortgage backed securities (“MBS”) as “tier one” assets. As such, they were counted at 100 percent of face value. Recall that a substantial percentage of MBS lost all or most their value after the financial crisis of 2008. Today, many sovereign-debt securities (e.g., those of Greece, and perhaps those of Spain and Italy) are worth only “pennies on the dollar.”
Commentary: Basel III Brings Gold Back | The National Interest

please discuss
ideas as to when shit hits the fan with gold price sky-rocketing ?
 



This math is confusing/misleading me
what the fuck is "gold will be counted 100% now"?
So, if gold was only counted 50% before, and now the banks need to hold 6% instead of 4%, does that mean that their prior 4% is now 8%? (which might lead to gold selling by banks)
 
what i got from that in simple words that gold will be counted as tier I asset as opposed to tier 3 before and that will spike gold buying by the banks as by their books gold will be treated as capital with higher "respect".
maybe somebody can elaborate more
 
apparently it's old news, so I guess it's already priced in.
it's definitely a good sign for gold, but I doubt it's an indicator for a "spike in gold"
 
^^ as this basel 3 stuff was known to banks in since 2008-2009 and certainly the price already reflects that. you are right
 
When even shoeshine boys are giving you stock tips, it's time to sell

Looking back in history this has been one of the most reliable indicators that there is a bubble. It was the case leading up to the Great Depression, in the Housing Bubble, the Tech Bubble, and really just about every other bubble. It was common knowledge that you should put a significant percentage of your income into your house because it was just about guaranteed to go up in value.

And now everywhere I go I hear everyone, experts and peasants alike are telling me that gold is a lock. I hear about how every investment portfolio should have gold in it.

I'm not saying there aren't logical reasons that people think gold will go up, but when everyone (even those who know nothing about the markets) thinks gold is a good investment, there is a good chance it is overvalued.

So I currently want nothing to do with gold.
 
^Means it's already priced in as someone else said

You are missing the point. The influx of central banks to Au means that many of the top economists on the planet are anticipating accelerated inflation of the USD. That action alone influences market sentiment substantially whether they are right in their prediction or not, but it's very likely their prediction will prove accurate. QE4 + fiscal cliff + debt ceiling debate + general fear = volatility. Notice I linked you to a strap straddle strategy, not a call or a put alone. Gold is in limbo and facing extreme volatility in the near and long term. That particular strap straddle will be profitable with movement of GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) below $155.45 or above $164.75 with a bull profit bias.

I do have to make one correction however -- the straddle is supposed to expire on the 19th of January, but for some reason that calculator defaulted me to the 25th.
 

this is my surprised face





















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