I have to give my broker a strike and a duration on those puts. They won't sell me a perpetual.
Your CL short call was at 90.32. It traded to 110 within 6 months of your call and then went nowhere for 3 1/2 years.
I did say "in due time" - at the time I was just seeing a large spike upward and it was a good bet the spike would not hold. Of course it held for a long time which is why I was advocating buying OTM Puts with "throw away money you will not miss". I figured someone could buy a LEAP Put every few months and just hold them. Cheap stuff that would act as a quiver full once the drop materialized.
It is like buying Car Insurance. You are paying $XXX amount and just losing it if not used, but one day, it can come in very handy.
If you had a quiver full of LEAP Puts, even though the first ones you had bought when I posted would have expired worthless, had you kept buying Cheap OTM ones, when the move happened, you would have cashed in.
Oil moving sharply downward was inevitable, at the time there were plenty talking of new discoveries, over supply, no real fundamental substantiation for the upward spike.
Paid $2.49 gallon in Brea, CA at the ARCO on the 57 and Imperial Hwy tonight. getting closer to my $1.45 dream every day.
So how much did you make on that advice? And is the same advise still valid on calls now that it's near the bottom?
I made nothing, because if I had invested followed my advice Oil would never go down and I did not want to do that to the world......
Anytime I stand to make $XM without a ton of work, it never happens - just not lucky like that.
One last thing, I would not bet on oil going back up, but then again I am nobody. It might, but it is not the same bet as it was on going down after a huge upward spike.
Oil should be $40/barrel.
