Anyone here trade futures?



This is like someone saying, I'm going to get into physics, and all I need to know is the basics, you know, how to add and subtract.

Dude, if you are going to do something, do it right, go into it for real and master the topic, or don't do shit at all.
 
cardine said:
If I were to get into forex I'd do it by learning to create Neural Networks that can work with Forex, not actually learning Forex itself.
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+1, every time I think about learning to trade forex, I am like "well couldn't I write a bot to do it better than me?" But then, having no knowledge abouit the inner workings of forex or even what all the terms mean, so my bot would surely leave out some crucial details and bankrupt me, unless I first learn to trade forex by hand. Need to trade by hand to write the bot, want to write the bot so I never have to trade by hand. Chicken and egg problem?
 
Sounds like you have quite a lot of experience trading futures. Can you recommend any good chat sites devoted to futures trading. I trade mostly in crude, gold, coffee, wheat and sp.
 
Cant remember the URL but there's a site where they hold a yearly contest to find thr best bot/algorithm and track it over the entire year.. The top guys usually get picked off by VCs and swiftly disappear... one thing to note even the #1 algo still has atleast 1 day where it loses atleast half its net worth. If I remember I'll find the site tomorrow.
 
Becareful of using leverage, it's a double edge sword. Trade only with amount you can lose and won't affect your life style.
 
eliquid said:
In a sense, there is no real zero sum anything then as someone is always making a fee/profit without the risk. With it being the same, then its all the same.. amiright?
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The way I'm understanding zero sum is that "in order for me to win this game, there must be a loser" Which is why some people have an "ethics" problem with capitalism. Is this anywhere in the ballpark, mathmagicians?
 
Like someone said above it's actually a negative sum game. Because of transactional fees (broker fees, spread, whatever). So your edge has to not only be above break-even, it also has to cover transactional costs. Most (90%++) don't have such edge and bleed money. Edge is hard to get and hard to maintain as markets change and edges "dull" over time. Overall, it's a royal bitch. If you're one of the few who master it year after year, yea you can be the next Paul Tudor Jones, Soros or whoever the fuck your trading hero is.
 
PhillipMarlow said:
The way I'm understanding zero sum is that "in order for me to win this game, there must be a loser" Which is why some people have an "ethics" problem with capitalism. Is this anywhere in the ballpark, mathmagicians?
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It's not even the ethics of it for me - it's that mathematically if I stay in that game long enough, my profits will go to zero (less with commissions). Limit as it approaches infinity, just like how statistics say if I flip a coin 5 times, I might get 4 heads and 1 tails (so I've "won" 4 times), but if I keep doing it, it will always end up being 50/50

Workforce said:
I'd feel more confident sitting down at a blackjack table. You have to understand that I am not just your average blackjack player though.
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Unless you've got a strong counting method, you're subject to odds just like anyone else.
 
papajohn56 said:
It's not even the ethics of it for me - it's that mathematically if I stay in that game long enough, my profits will go to zero (less with commissions). Limit as it approaches infinity, just like how statistics say if I flip a coin 5 times, I might get 4 heads and 1 tails (so I've "won" 4 times), but if I keep doing it, it will always end up being 50/50



Unless you've got a strong counting method, you're subject to odds just like anyone else.
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for wallstreet sharks it's a game with positive expectation, for housewife traders and coin-flippers - negative
 
PhillipMarlow said:
The way I'm understanding zero sum is that "in order for me to win this game, there must be a loser" Which is why some people have an "ethics" problem with capitalism. Is this anywhere in the ballpark, mathmagicians?
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It means that if someone gains X then someone loses X. If someone loses Y, then someone gains Y.
 
lincolndsp said:
for wallstreet sharks it's a game with positive expectation, for housewife traders and coin-flippers - negative
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You dont need be a wallstreet fuck to make money.

You just need to understand market microstructure and human behavior.

Markets are predictable under certain conditions. Its these conditions that give whoever it is the edge.

but you dont need be in wallstreet for that. In fact them fuckers are some of the worst fucking traders there are.
 
Scalped said:
You dont need be a wallstreet fuck to make money.

You just need to understand market microstructure and human behavior.

Markets are predictable under certain conditions. Its these conditions that give whoever it is the edge.

but you dont need be in wallstreet for that. In fact them fuckers are some of the worst fucking traders there are.
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wallstreet sharks was a generalization of a market trader making consistent profits, why take it so literally?:xmas-smiley-016: the part about housewife traders was also not about actual housewives but you got the point with that.

happy trading and retiring from the thread not to be considered a smartass
 
general comment..... whoever says that making money in stocks long term is not possible your a fucktard that is the equivalent of saying that AM is bullshit and that money can't be made. there is no rags to riches story about making big money with stocks.

My recommendation would be invest in stocks, margin the fuck out them if you are a risk taker, fuck day trading, and learn technical analysis. If you can make solid returns after about a year or so move on to options. That's what I did and I doubled my money until I pulled it all out to do affiliate marketing and now I am just losing it all lol (funny how I was making loads of cash on google and they took it all back through adwords lol)

papajohn TOS is a great platform and unless ameritrade has fucked with the platform lately they have videos that show you how to utilize their desktop platform.

if you don't already know don't use the web based platform the desktop is better. If you want PM me and I can give you tips to be successful with stocks using their platform but I am of no use for Forex.
 
as jonas33k mentioned...TRADE OPTIONS...no more importantly...SELL OPTIONS...u hear all these dudes talking about its a zero sum game and negative expectation...well if ur the one doing the selling then u dont have to really worry about losing everything...there are spread trades u can put on and make 10,20,50% on ur money/month...as with everything...the more u try to make the more risk u assume...but u dont have to lose everything...look up these option strategies...iron condor, vertical spreads, diagonals and double diagonals, butterflies, straddles, strangles, collars, and covered calls (most option writers win 10-11 months out of the year with a mix of these strategies...just make sure u keep some money on the side in case the trade goes against u and u have to roll it either up to the next couple strikes away or out a few months...theoretically...if u have enough reserves...u can play them to where u would never lose)

I turned 4k into 125k in about 5-6months a few years ago just trading apple,rimm,google and bidu...but then i got cocky and tried to day trade and blew the fuck out.

I got back in and just when i was building my portfolio up...i found out about IM and jumped ship thinking i could make more money without the risk (thats a whole other story)...

none the less...if this sounds like some shit ur interested in go to the CBOE and look for the free educational videos buy a dude named Dan Sheridan...he will make all that shit look like cake and he doesnt get too technical...he even did a few broadcasts with Toms from Tos (preston and sosnoff) so it should be in the archive.

i just jumped back in...brushing up on my greeks tho to gauge my entry points and position sizing better so hit me up if u get stuck on something and wanna pick my brain.
 
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