Are jobs obsolete?

Wicked Ice

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Nov 11, 2007
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Are jobs obsolete? - CNN.com

(CNN) -- The U.S. Postal Service appears to be the latest casualty in digital technology's slow but steady replacement of working humans. Unless an external source of funding comes in, the post office will have to scale back its operations drastically, or simply shut down altogether. That's 600,000 people who would be out of work, and another 480,000 pensioners facing an adjustment in terms.

We can blame a right wing attempting to undermine labor, or a left wing trying to preserve unions in the face of government and corporate cutbacks. But the real culprit -- at least in this case -- is e-mail. People are sending 22% fewer pieces of mail than they did four years ago, opting for electronic bill payment and other net-enabled means of communication over envelopes and stamps.

New technologies are wreaking havoc on employment figures -- from EZpasses ousting toll collectors to Google-controlled self-driving automobiles rendering taxicab drivers obsolete. Every new computer program is basically doing some task that a person used to do. But the computer usually does it faster, more accurately, for less money, and without any health insurance costs.

We like to believe that the appropriate response is to train humans for higher level work. Instead of collecting tolls, the trained worker will fix and program toll-collecting robots. But it never really works out that way, since not as many people are needed to make the robots as the robots replace.

And so the president goes on television telling us that the big issue of our time is jobs, jobs, jobs -- as if the reason to build high-speed rails and fix bridges is to put people back to work. But it seems to me there's something backwards in that logic. I find myself wondering if we may be accepting a premise that deserves to be questioned.

I am afraid to even ask this, but since when is unemployment really a problem? I understand we all want paychecks -- or at least money. We want food, shelter, clothing, and all the things that money buys us. But do we all really want jobs?

We're living in an economy where productivity is no longer the goal, employment is. That's because, on a very fundamental level, we have pretty much everything we need. America is productive enough that it could probably shelter, feed, educate, and even provide health care for its entire population with just a fraction of us actually working.

According to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, there is enough food produced to provide everyone in the world with 2,720 kilocalories per person per day. And that's even after America disposes of thousands of tons of crop and dairy just to keep market prices high. Meanwhile, American banks overloaded with foreclosed properties are demolishing vacant dwellingsto get the empty houses off their books.

Our problem is not that we don't have enough stuff -- it's that we don't have enough ways for people to work and prove that they deserve this stuff.

Jobs, as such, are a relatively new concept. People may have always worked, but until the advent of the corporation in the early Renaissance, most people just worked for themselves. They made shoes, plucked chickens, or created value in some way for other people, who then traded or paid for those goods and services. By the late Middle Ages, most of Europe was thriving under this arrangement.

The only ones losing wealth were the aristocracy, who depended on their titles to extract money from those who worked. And so they invented the chartered monopoly. By law, small businesses in most major industries were shut down and people had to work for officially sanctioned corporations instead. From then on, for most of us, working came to mean getting a "job."

The Industrial Age was largely about making those jobs as menial and unskilled as possible. Technologies such as the assembly line were less important for making production faster than for making it cheaper, and laborers more replaceable. Now that we're in the digital age, we're using technology the same way: to increase efficiency, lay off more people, and increase corporate profits.

While this is certainly bad for workers and unions, I have to wonder just how truly bad is it for people. Isn't this what all this technology was for in the first place? The question we have to begin to ask ourselves is not how do we employ all the people who are rendered obsolete by technology, but how can we organize a society around something other than employment? Might the spirit of enterprise we currently associate with "career" be shifted to something entirely more collaborative, purposeful, and even meaningful?

Instead, we are attempting to use the logic of a scarce marketplace to negotiate things that are actually in abundance. What we lack is not employment, but a way of fairly distributing the bounty we have generated through our technologies, and a way of creating meaning in a world that has already produced far too much stuff.

The communist answer to this question was just to distribute everything evenly. But that sapped motivation and never quite worked as advertised. The opposite, libertarian answer (and the way we seem to be going right now) would be to let those who can't capitalize on the bounty simply suffer. Cut social services along with their jobs, and hope they fade into the distance.

But there might still be another possibility -- something we couldn't really imagine for ourselves until the digital era. As a pioneer of virtual reality, Jaron Lanier, recently pointed out, we no longer need to make stuff in order to make money. We can instead exchange information-based products.

We start by accepting that food and shelter are basic human rights. The work we do -- the value we create -- is for the rest of what we want: the stuff that makes life fun, meaningful, and purposeful.

This sort of work isn't so much employment as it is creative activity. Unlike Industrial Age employment, digital production can be done from the home, independently, and even in a peer-to-peer fashion without going through big corporations. We can make games for each other, write books, solve problems, educate and inspire one another -- all through bits instead of stuff. And we can pay one another using the same money we use to buy real stuff.

For the time being, as we contend with what appears to be a global economic slowdown by destroying food and demolishing homes, we might want to stop thinking about jobs as the main aspect of our lives that we want to save. They may be a means, but they are not the ends.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Douglas Rushkoff.
 


Well on the Post Office Having Problems, the big part of that at the moment is that they pay into there retirement fund 75 years in advance (Required by a ~ Congressional 2003 Law). The big reason they dropped employees was so that burden would not be as big.


As far as the concept of Jobs, I have always maintained the thought that as technology progresses there will be less jobs. Things get automated and processes get faster, and alot of those processes do not require human interaction.

That is why I love affiliate marketing, if all jobs go to shit, at least this job will be one of the last to land in the shit. Somebody somewhere has got to be making enough money to get some Cash 4 Gold. =)
 
In the 1960's, there were ten of thousands of people employed at banks just to perform tabulation using mechanical calculators. Then the "computer" revolution came along with IBM mainframes and those jobs were lost in just a few years.

And that's just one example. There is nothing new under the sun.

This interesting period in US/World history reminds me not so much of the 1920s-1930s but the post-civil era (1870-1900) when North American moved from an agrarian economy to full industrialization.

Stock market panics. Multiple recessions. Deflation. Tremendous suffering among the working class (the steel mills caused more fatalities year over year than Gettysburg). And at the end of it all, a huge leap in living standards (increased life expectancy, caloric intake, etc)

I wished the high schools/universities of today taught more history. Then you guys might understand the jokes that I post sometimes (and nobody gets).
 
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future lies in parcels as more people shop online. the uk's royal mail postal service got sold to privae sector a few years back, since then the cost of postage has spiralled out of control. they price packages based on size as well, not just weight. A second class stamp used to be a second class stap, you stick it on and barely notice any money gone because it was so cheap, now a second class stamp costs a fair bob, its gone up well above rate of inflation, they increase prices twice a year or something
 
The article completely ignores history, and human innovation.

Before, there were servants taking out buckets of piss & shit for their employers, but then sewer systems came along, and that job was eradicated. Before transporation was problem, but then the wheel came along, and afterwards, the motorized engine. Doesn't mean the entire economy crashed. It simply means new, totally unheard of before industries were created. Same will happen again.

Main difference now is, before unskilled labor paid well, and jobs were plentiful. Those days are over. Better be skilled, or you're fucked. Knowing how to run a chainsaw isn't going to cut it like it once did.
 
Don't tell me: they don't have money in the 23rd Century?

Well, we don't.

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I was saying this back in like 2000 how automation was going to kill jobs. People thought I was crazy.

Think about how we shop now, how things are done. So many things are automated. Factories with robots, email, banking. Hell don't even really need branch banks or tellers anymore. You can do 99% of your banking online and at the atm. You could probably automate fast food chains with 1 person watching over or even camera's where 1 person watches over 100 stores.

Things like the DMV could be automated, even the test could use a simulator(would be much safer too), computers could scan your documents. You see more and more self checkouts at stores. Our lowes here has only self checkouts with 1 person running a register if you need help.

Shopping online can be close to fully automated even at the warehouse. Cars are put together by robots.

Watch how its made and its not often at new high tech factories you see 10 people running the whole place as were in the past there would have been 100.
 
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Weird article full of dumb assertions. Written from the point of view of someone who doesn't get tech. I had a job designing chips and electronic systems. Tech didn't eliminate my job, it made it exist. Claiming that U.S. is moving in a libertarian direction, pu-lease. If you eliminate at least half the gov and regulations you would be moving that way. But it just gets bigger and more (gov and regs) all the time.
 
^^ Google is testing out self driving cars, there was some news on the usual tech blogs about it a few months back. Obviously several years if not a decade or more out from being anything more than a novelty.

ahh, ok. I haven't see this. Probably 10 years ago I saw something on a 20/20 type news program about BMW (I think) trying to do this, but nothing ever really came of it, or at at least that I've heard.

I was saying this back in like 2000 how automation was going to kill jobs. People thought I was crazy.

Think about how we shop now, how things are done. So many things are automated. Factories with robots, email, banking. Hell don't even really need branch banks or tellers anymore. You can do 99% of your banking online and at the atm. You could probably automate fast food chains with 1 person watching over or even camera's where 1 person watches over 100 stores.

Things like the DMV could be automated, even the test could use a simulator(would be much safer too), computers could scan your documents. You see more and more self checkouts at stores. Our lowes here has only self checkouts with 1 person running a register if you need help.

Shopping online can be close to fully automated even at the warehouse. Cars are put together by robots.

Watch how its made and its not often at new high tech factories you see 10 people running the whole place as were in the past there would have been 100.

Wonder how this will effect 3rd world product (China, India, etc)- in other words, will this savings in labor cost bring more production back to the US and shut down (or at least slow) these up and coming economies
 
future lies in parcels as more people shop online.
I doubt that's going to employ enough of our losers.

What we truly need, and nothing short of it will do, is an online way to Fully educate people for all of these new job types.

It's certainly doable, (see k12.com or any "how to code" tutorial site) but our fools in charge don't see it as a priority.

It needs to be such a huge priority that they should basically remove the entire budget for our sad, failing existing educational sham system and put it all into that instead.

Sadly, I fear this can never happen because the people who really run the world need for legions of brainless morons to be 'educated' in such a way that they'll never question the status quo.

So there's a huge conflict; only smart parents can make the difference with their own children... But a "smart parent" is pretty much an oxymoron in this world, so I don't expect to see much of a change, ever. Get ready for lots of suffering in humanity's future.

the uk's royal mail postal service got sold to privae sector a few years back, since then the cost of postage has spiralled out of control.
Sounds like those blokes need some competition!
 
The article completely ignores history, and human innovation.

Before, there were servants taking out buckets of piss & shit for their employers, but then sewer systems came along, and that job was eradicated. Before transporation was problem, but then the wheel came along, and afterwards, the motorized engine. Doesn't mean the entire economy crashed. It simply means new, totally unheard of before industries were created. Same will happen again.

Main difference now is, before unskilled labor paid well, and jobs were plentiful. Those days are over. Better be skilled, or you're fucked. Knowing how to run a chainsaw isn't going to cut it like it once did.

This is an excellent point.

But you also sold another point.

Human History has always had a place for unskilled labor.
That is what is changing.
 
Wonder how this will effect 3rd world product (China, India, etc)- in other words, will this savings in labor cost bring more production back to the US and shut down (or at least slow) these up and coming economies

How could that bring production to the USA? If anything it will take production away. We are global economy and production will happen where things are the cheapest. If power cost keep rising(obama regulating coal, oil, ect) you will see company's moving their automated plants, servers ect out of the US.
 
. We are global economy and production will happen where things are the cheapest. If power cost keep rising(obama regulating coal, oil, ect) you will see company's moving their automated plants, servers ect out of the US.

True. I was thinking along the line of who will run the machines who make things, But energy costs are definitely a determining factor and regulation is certainly not helping with that in the US.
 
We're living in an economy where productivity is no longer the goal, employment is. That's because, on a very fundamental level, we have pretty much everything we need. America is productive enough that it could probably shelter, feed, educate, and even provide health care for its entire population with just a fraction of us actually working.

uuuhhhhhgggg