Bomb at Boston Marathon

Andrey said:
We don't know what happened there and who did it. That is why it is the best to stay in the place of "I don't know" and just observe the evidence as it becomes available. Rather than choosing a position from the beginning: "Oh this is just a coincidence" and posting some pseudo-science explanation.

Let's just stay in a position of no position, a position of unbiased observer and see what happens.
Click to expand...

Absolutely, I agree with this. My post was only to try to avoid someone taking the position of biased observer, looking for evidence to back up their preconceived idea of why it happened.

I have no idea why it happened personally, I just want to treat all evidence from that stand-point.

As for the biases, it's worth researching them for all aspects of our lives, from business to personal relationships, to understanding the world - it's not a pseudo-science, it's been demonstrated in the real world countless times by people much smarter than me. Wikipedia has a great article as a starting point to delve further. Check this out: List of cognitive biases - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 


maybenot said:
dchuk - as far as I can tell - also understands that we are conditioned to see patterns that aren't really there, since we have evolved to be excellent with pattern recognition (too good) but terrible with biases and statistics. When you see something like a family guy video and its link to a bombing, you are unaware of the millions of other events which are not related, and therefore you don't understand that it is likely that out of all the variables in a given situation, there will be one or two which 'stand out' to your mind. In reality, they are almost inevitable.

As a simple example, imagine you play pool regularly. You're not bad and you play a few rounds a day. One day you go to the pool hall and you play a shot where you pot half the balls in one go. This seems incredible. Except it's not - it's a very probable result after playing a few rounds a day for a year. Basically it's a bell curve - given enough input, you will see outputs at each extreme at a certain frequency.

The truly weird thing, would be if you didn't see those extremes every x times. That is what could indicate something is not right!

Christ I'm not explaining myself well. Maybe dchuck can do better.
Click to expand...

That made sense.

Edit: Pressure cookers...
 
maybenot said:
dchuk - as far as I can tell - also understands that we are conditioned to see patterns that aren't really there, since we have evolved to be excellent with pattern recognition (too good) but terrible with biases and statistics. When you see something like a family guy video and its link to a bombing, you are unaware of the millions of other events which are not related, and therefore you don't understand that it is likely that out of all the variables in a given situation, there will be one or two which 'stand out' to your mind. In reality, they are almost inevitable.
Click to expand...

In psychology, this is known as the Principles of Grouping.

The Principles of grouping (or Gestalt laws of grouping) are a set of principles in psychology, first proposed by Gestalt psychologists to account for the observation that humans naturally perceive objects as organized patterns and objects. Gestalt psychologists argued that these principles exist because the mind has an innate disposition to perceive patterns in the stimulus based on certain rules. These principles are organized into six categories: Proximity, Similarity, Closure, Good Continuation, Common Fate, and Good Form.
Click to expand...
These principles are not THE rule, but they are good rules to consider when observing world events.
 
deMR0jr.png


Any of you guy's ever get a "verify controversy" page on YouTube? In all the years I have used Youtube I have never seen this screen on any video.
 
dmnEPC said:
Any of you guy's ever get a "verify controversy" page on YouTube? In all the years I have used Youtube I have never seen this screen on any video.
Click to expand...

I learned about a few products/features through this tragedy.

1. Google Person Finder
2. YouTube streams Live videos e.g. President addressing the Press
3. SafetyPad

In fact, it would make for a great article if someone observed the many different ways technology played a role during this event.

Cell phone jamming could be a topic here, too. Media has recently surfaced saying that Sprint and Verizon weren't sent any requests to "shut down" cell phone service. What is more explainable is that law enforcement or National Guard employed signal jamming devices that are very much capable (we used them in Afghanistan, they gave us severe headaches). They're technically illegal and you need at least a Secret clearance to operate one, but the technology piece applies.
 
maybenot said:
dchuk - as far as I can tell - also understands that we are conditioned to see patterns that aren't really there, since we have evolved to be excellent with pattern recognition (too good) but terrible with biases and statistics. When you see something like a family guy video and its link to a bombing, you are unaware of the millions of other events which are not related, and therefore you don't understand that it is likely that out of all the variables in a given situation, there will be one or two which 'stand out' to your mind. In reality, they are almost inevitable.

As a simple example, imagine you play pool regularly. You're not bad and you play a few rounds a day. One day you go to the pool hall and you play a shot where you pot half the balls in one go. This seems incredible. Except it's not - it's a very probable result after playing a few rounds a day for a year. Basically it's a bell curve - given enough input, you will see outputs at each extreme at a certain frequency.

The truly weird thing, would be if you didn't see those extremes every x times. That is what could indicate something is not right!

Christ I'm not explaining myself well. Maybe dchuck can do better.
Click to expand...

It's called Selection Bias: Selection bias - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It's the cause of most conspiracy theories, if you cherry pick information you can basically prove anything.
 
Andrey said:
We don't know what happened there and who did it. That is why it is the best to stay in the place of "I don't know" and just observe the evidence as it becomes available. Rather than choosing a position from the beginning: "Oh this is just a coincidence" and posting some pseudo-science explanation.

Let's just stay in a position of no position, a position of unbiased observer and see what happens.
Click to expand...

I really can't imagine how you of all people can possibly pull that off
 
A member on a forum of mine has a sister which was a victim of the Boston bombings. She had one of her legs amputated and is in a coma. Her other leg may need surgery as well.

My prayers go out to all those affected by this bombing.

Such a horrible event. :(
 
shameful that ESPN.com is reporting every little detail within their top headline. Its as if this shit gets force fed down your throat even if you want to get away for a second.
 
scottspfd82 said:
I'm sorry if "tin foil hatters" upset you.

I get upset when I see people being slaughtered while people attack those who question the possibility that the world's most murderous institutions, those with the most power to gain from these attacks, just may have something to do with it.

Personally, I think failing to investigate and question every possible suspect is incredibly insulting and disrespectful to the victims of tragic attacks like we saw today.
Click to expand...
I really hope this wasn't actually directed at my comment because I wasn't attacking anyone other than people (tin foil hatters) who put themselves out there to be attacked in the first place...

I'm all for running a proper investigation to find out who commits acts of domestic terrorism, but that is in no way the same as jumping to ridiculous false flag allegations (what tin foil hatters almost always do for these types of events). Bombings happen all the time by crazy ass people with no government participation whatsoever.

At this point, there is no reason to believe this was anything other than a random act of mass violence.

My point (that I've also made in the past) is that by jumping into conspiracy theory land, conspiracy theorists shift the conversation from supporting and helping those hurt/maimed/killed by the event to "look at me and my wild ass unsubstantiated theory formed because I think the government is the root of all evil". That is insulting.
 
dmnEPC said:
Am I guilty of this? have I cherry picked the strange anomalies to bias the perceptions of myself and others?
Click to expand...

We're all guilty of this to some extent, but I wasn't pointing anything at you in this specific discussion, just clarifying what was trying to be said from earlier in the thread.
 
dmnEPC said:
deMR0jr.png


Any of you guy's ever get a "verify controversy" page on YouTube? In all the years I have used Youtube I have never seen this screen on any video.
Click to expand...

All the time, they're just crowdsourcing censorship duties because they can't possibly manage that on their own. They mean controversy in the sense of "parents don't want their kids seeing this" not "this could be a smoking gun video" sense.
 
Am I guilty of this? have I cherry picked the strange anomalies to bias the perceptions of myself and others?
Click to expand...

dmnEPC said:
deMR0jr.png


Any of you guy's ever get a "verify controversy" page on YouTube? In all the years I have used Youtube I have never seen this screen on any video.
Click to expand...


"It's the first time I've seen it, so is it the first time all have seen it?"
 
They are saying it was pressure cookers in backpacks on the news, filled with nails, bearings, etc..

Seems like this is more of a home-made thing, ie. crazy person.. Don't care about the pressure cookers, but the nails, bearings, etc are commonly associated with that type of person's profile/explosive choice..

Starting to think it was just an angry person, and not much else to the story...
 
contract said:
They are saying it was pressure cookers in backpacks on the news, filled with nails, bearings, etc..

Seems like this is more of a home-made thing, ie. crazy person.. Don't care about the pressure cookers, but the nails, bearings, etc are commonly associated with that type of person's profile/explosive choice..

Starting to think it was just an angry person, and not much else to the story...
Click to expand...

I'll make sure to tell the Boston Herald *rolls eyes*
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom