Conversion variances- how far is normal?

[Sonny Forelli]

Curious about what you guys see:

For one campaign that's getting quite a bit of traffic (driving to a landing page) I see at most 10% deltas in CTR on the ads on a daily basis, and then less than 5% CTR delta on the landing page to the offer.

However the offer conversion swings wildly- up to 100% (ie converting from say 7% to 15%) depending on the day of the week however there is no consistency.

Does that sound like "tracking errors" to you or do you guys see conversions that swing that wildly regularly? (on all my other campaigns it's usually under 25% conversion delta max).

 

[AdHustler]

I don't think there is any "normal" here.

 

[KunkVentures]

find what days are converting poorly. If you arent monitoring your performance by hour and day, you should.

 

[Sonny Forelli]

find what days are converting poorly. If you arent monitoring your performance by hour and day, you should.

there is zero correlation between day/hour - enough traffic to be statistically significant, and extremely slim variances in CTR on the ad or through the landing page yet the offer performs drastically differently.

My main concern is shaving on the part of the advertiser and wanted to know if anyone else sees conversion swings this large with other factors held constant.

 

[CShoemaker]

Is the campaign profitable all the time? Just try another network and see how it runs. If it isn't profitable everyday (when it dips) just shut the campaign off those days and you'll be fine.

 

[thedamian]

10% CTR is good in my opinion.
and 5% click to convention is also good.

I know everyone will tell you their CTR is 200% and click to conversion is at 1,000% but your numbers do look normal for offers that aren't PORN.

Also the variation aren't that significant, and especially if the total numbers are low.

And a conversion change might be due to keywords variations. You might want to pass a sub-ID with information about your source.

 

[Sonny Forelli]

10% CTR is good in my opinion.
and 5% click to convention is also good.

I know everyone will tell you their CTR is 200% and click to conversion is at 1,000% but your numbers do look normal for offers that aren't PORN.

Also the variation aren't that significant, and especially if the total numbers are low.

And a conversion change might be due to keywords variations. You might want to pass a sub-ID with information about your source.

if my CTR was 10% I'd be out of business- what I'm saying are that my DELTAS day to day on the same offer from the same traffic source from the same ad copy going to the same landing page is 10%.

IE:

Day 1:

100,000 impressions in Google
6,000 clicks to my landing page
3,300 clicks to the offer
500 conversions/actions
~15% conversion rate once the user landed on the offer

Day 2:

100,000 impressions on Google
5,500 clicks to my landing page
2,700 clicks to the offer
185 conversions/actions
7% converstion rate once the user landed on the offer


We're talking numbers of this caliber - so they hold statistical significance - ad copy that isn't varying, keywords that are constant, users that are on the page for the same average time and page load times that are identical.

HOWEVER one day/portion of the day I'm converting at 7% - and one at 15%. To me this certainly seems like possible shaving based on a random algorithm to make it look more normal.


I'm used to a max swing of about 25% on conversion not 100%.

Whether it's profitable or generally good isn't my question- it's whether this looks 'odd' to anyone else as at the dollar amounts we're talking about if indeed there was a tracking issue it could be tossing away significant amounts of money daily and thus I'm a little concerned.

Thanks for everyone's help

 

[smaxor]

A lot of this has to do with day of the week and time of the month. Take a niche like Payday Loans people realize shit I don't have any money as they have used up their whole paycheck. So right before pay times the traffic and sales jump. Right after they get their paychecks there is no business at all.

Not all niches are this based on time frames. But Most have some time variance of conversions at least weekly. You really can't track day to day conversions you're much better off tracking same day week to week.

Also as I always say split test your offer between networks. Have to do it for multiple days if you're going to do that though. You'll truly get difference in conversions between different networks a lot of time. Test, Test, Test.

 

[FortunePlaza]

Your offer most likely works better on specific days of week. An example is lose fat offers, typically they always do better on Mondays, Tuesdays, and Friday's.