Gold Bubble?

BluAffiliate said:
Any proof that it's lower in supply than gold (chemically impossible) or that it's irreplaceable (and not just useful) in industry?
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I'm not sure how you expect me to prove that. By buying all the gold and silver in the world and weighing it? And, although the ratio of silver to gold in the Earth's crust is somewhere around 20:1, I'm talking about refined metals here, so it's certainly not chemically impossible that there's less supply of refined silver.

I obviously don't have any proof that it's irreplaceable either, or that it will never be replaced. What I know is that it's the most reflective and conductive substance we know of, it's critical for all sorts of manufacturing, and has growing use for solar panels and anti-microbials. I form these opinions, as I do most things, by listening to experts in the field who I trust. How to you form your opinions?

You'll have to excuse me if I seem a little terse, but you obviously have some issues. Whether they're personal or you're just a douche, I couldn't say, nor do I particularly care.

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Nice one! Consider me appropriately humbled.
 
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Cygnus said:
Yes gold is in a bubble
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I'd love to hear your definition of a bubble.

Cygnus said:
as is everything eventually that can be bought or sold.
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Not sure that holds true.

Cygnus said:
Most of my worth is in .com domains, just another commodity (of sorts)
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They aren't a commodity at all. They are a liability because you do not own them outright. The registrar and ICANN have higher claims to the domain name than you do.

Are you Cygnus SEO on Twitter?
 
Is the fed still printing GreenBacks? Yes.

Also watch the ECB printing, and actions.

Think of Gold as a stand alone Currency.

Many nations around the world are printing large amounts of money, so this will help out gold (again think of it as a currency... yes it has Industrial uses and jewelry uses).

For a crash, look for some sort of large move on the usa Growth, a large type bounce back 4% or 5% move for months on end(yes i know cant seem to see this)

There are large amounts of cash at least a few trillion held on the sidelines, it will be much more powerful if it is used by business then it would be by government.. a few trillion spent by government doesnt really do much these days.

Ill make a prediction, at the end of the day.... you will see Gold and Silver used on a worldwide scale much more then it is today, to hold ones wealth. It will be much more widley held then the us dollar is used today.

In this case, when everyone is buying.... its not a bubble.

There could be a large pullback.. if there is some sign of growth at higher levels we see today... in the usa and europe as they are very low today.. so even a small move upwards for say a few years were the usa and europe would have say like even 3 4 % growth for 2 years say gold would go bear i think... at least for a while.. but i think it would be a good time to buy..

The debt loads of the major powers will continue to go up, you really think if growth returns they will pay off that debt? They will spend it....most of it saying good times are here again... then when the growth goes down again.. well what to do? print more money of course..

So to sum it up, if growth returns... it will pull back.. watch the debt loads.. if still high buy when it goes bear (if we get growth that is.. has to be usa and europe high growth rates for a number of years..not a few quarters)
 
cabezon said:
I'm not sure how you expect me to prove that. By buying all the gold and silver in the world and weighing it? And, although the ratio of silver to gold in the Earth's crust is somewhere around 20:1, I'm talking about refined metals here, so it's certainly not chemically impossible that there's less supply of refined silver.

I obviously don't have any proof that it's irreplaceable either, or that it will never be replaced. What I know is that it's the most reflective and conductive substance we know of, it's critical for all sorts of manufacturing, and has growing use for solar panels and anti-microbials. I form these opinions, as I do most things, by listening to experts in the field who I trust. How to you form your opinions?

You'll have to excuse me if I seem a little terse, but you obviously have some issues. Whether they're personal or you're just a douche, I couldn't say, nor do I particularly care.

douchebaggery.jpg


Nice one! Consider me appropriately humbled.
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There may be more stores of gold in central banks because governments hold it for currency reserves but claiming there is more gold out there than silver is pretty ludicrous. Do some research on how minerals are distributed when planets are formed; the heaviest ones are rarer and ligher ones are more common. And even if we only count the "refined" silver you're still way off buddy.

And you're completely wrong on the industrial uses of silver, and are just repeating the same myth precious metals peddlers have been saying for ages. In fact silver is one of the most easiest replaced materials in industry when its cost goes beyond a certain threshold.

Don't take the red brick too seriously. I gave it to you because you're a shit poster and you proved it once again by your ignorant post. Have another.

Negative rep like that is usually some low status beta trying to act out his online frustrations passive-aggressively.
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Classifying everyone as either alpha or beta. Lol.

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My definition of a bubble is more of the physicist view, like a universe that can expand or contract at varying rates, not necessarily indicating relative worth. Perhaps the better question by OP would have been whether gold is over or undervalued in comparison to another object.

.com domains are as much an asset as real estate (basically renting for gov given yearly property taxes) or how most people are "holding" gold via third parties. Yes, not as safe as physical delivery, but I'm still treating my portfolio as assets for a variety of favorable tax reasons. The liability is the risk of forfeiture of domains after a long carry cost through registrar theft or icann policy changes.

Yeah I'm cygnusseo on twitter.

guerilla said:
I'd love to hear your definition of a bubble.


Not sure that holds true.


They aren't a commodity at all. They are a liability because you do not own them outright. The registrar and ICANN have higher claims to the domain name than you do.

Are you Cygnus SEO on Twitter?
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Is Gold in a bubble? If so, what would folks call the Gold Standard era where all bank notes were redeemable in gold?

We're not even 1/1000th of the way to a Gold standard, so calling what we have a bubble is way off IMO.

A bubble is when the layman begins to speculate in something he wouldn't otherwise do. Like during the housing boom when people were quitting their jobs to become real estate agents. When your waitress, your mechanic, and your doctor are getting their real estate licenses, that's a fucking bubble.
 
guerilla said:
I like your tweets.
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So you're one of my dozens of followers (insert joke here about information provided and its inverse ratio of followers...usually).

I find the issue of gold and other assets and their current worth in comparison to other asset classes interesting because I do feel like we're on the precipice of some sort of global jolt and naturally intend to profit from whatever that is. I'm not high on the dollar nor on any other currency at the moment, given their artificial demand curves. I missed out on most of the upward momentum of gold, but did quite well with copper stocks over the last 8 years or so.

You know, maybe we should be talking about how to be profit in an environment of a dysfunctional market, like a hyper panic that might occur during a global jolt. Lets say a guy owned a bunch of stock in gold mining firms that are worth X...as it becomes time to cash in that position, the guy may not be able to do so and its decreased liquidity would depress value. The only way I know around this is to physically hold such assets, which is pretty inefficient once one considers ample security costs to protect them. If I'm not mistaken, you were big on physical ownership.

For anyone into the markets, I'm currently investigating CDS related ideas for a wide range of assets, so if you have knowledge of such issuances that I can buy without having to drop 7 figures, I'm open to looking at them.
 
Cygnus said:
So you're one of my dozens of followers (insert joke here about information provided and its inverse ratio of followers...usually).
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Actually, I usually see your tweets when Aaron Wall retweets them. I find Twitter really noisy and cliquish in general.
 
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