Hawking on AI

Antics said:
Where are you getting this figure from?
Click to expand...

The link I posted has more information. Some of it is kind of technical though.

According to Steve Hsu's estimates (based on actual data) most humans have (order of magnitude) 1000 rare (-) alleles for intelligence and height, and someone who is one standard deviation above average has (very roughly) 30 fewer (-) variants. A human with none of the negative alleles might be 30 SD above average! Such a person has yet to exist in human history...
Click to expand...
Basically, the Chinese have been working to identify all the genes associated with intelligence. They've found there are about 1000 negative alleles (genes) that impact intelligence. People with say only 970 negative alleles are 1 standard deviation above average for IQ. People who are genius level today have dozens less negative alleles than average, and are several standard deviations above average for IQ.

If you do the math and extrapolate that out, somebody with zero negative alleles for intelligence would be genetically perfect and would be a whooping 30 standard deviations above average for IQ!

If you don't understand how that works, here's a quote from the comments on the article I posted that might help explain a little how IQ scales.

In other words, a person with IQ of 130 is not 1.3× smarter than one with 100. Indeed - it is pretty hard to quantify “smartness” at all, but insofar as people who study this thing are concerned, it goes something like this:

IQ100 = 1.0×
IQ110 = 1.6×
IQ120 = 2.6× … etc

Here's the whole table from IQ = 0 to 550:

0 0.00910
10 0.0145
20 0.0233
30 0.0372
40 0.0596
50 0.0954
60 0.152
70 0.244
80 0.391
90 0.625
100 1
110 1.60
120 2.56
130 4.10
140 6.56
150 10.4
160 16.7
170 26.8
180 42.9
190 68.7
200 110
210 176
220 281
230 450
240 721
250 1,150
260 1,840
270 2,950
280 4,720
290 7,560
300 12,100
310 19,300
320 30,900
330 49,500
340 79,300
350 126,000
360 203,000
370 324,000
380 519,000
390 831,000
400 1,330,000
410 2,120,000
420 3,400,000
430 5,440,000
440 8,710,000
450 13,900,000
460 22,300,000
470 35,700,000
480 57,100,000
490 91,400,000
500 146,000,000
510 234,000,000
520 374,000,000
530 599,000,000
540 958,000,000
550 1,530,000,000

That just shows that someone with IQ = 120 is about 2.56× more full of “stuff” as someone with IQ = 100. The numbers aren't unreasonable, either. However… that IQ = 550 thing becomes something of a stretch. Over a billion and a half times as much “stuff”?

That'd be like saying, that someone with an IQ of 550 could learn in one second everything that an ordinary bloke or lass might learn in their first 50 years of life, combined.
Click to expand...
 


IQ test's just test how good you are at remembering stuff and doing logic and math problems and reading and things like that.

It doesn't really measure how smart someone is, and people who do have "high" ones are often really arrogant, stupid and shitty human beings, I think maybe from having smoke blown up their asses their entire life about how smart and special they are because they scored really high on a fucking math test one time.
 
qqbot said:
IQ test's just test how good you are at remembering stuff and doing logic and math problems and reading and things like that.

It doesn't really measure how smart someone is, and people who do have "high" ones are often really arrogant, stupid and shitty human beings, I think maybe from having smoke blown up their asses their entire life about how smart and special they are because they scored really high on a fucking math test one time.
Click to expand...

interested (not really) in your thoughts regarding the people with "low" ones. let me guess: often really bitter, sniping and jealous human beings who didn't receive the same accolades as others who are smart and special and scored really high on a fucking math test one time.
 
_poto_ said:
The link I posted has more information. Some of it is kind of technical though.

Basically, the Chinese have been working to identify all the genes associated with intelligence. They've found there are about 1000 negative alleles (genes) that impact intelligence. People with say only 970 negative alleles are 1 standard deviation above average for IQ. People who are genius level today have dozens less negative alleles than average, and are several standard deviations above average for IQ.

If you do the math and extrapolate that out, somebody with zero negative alleles for intelligence would be genetically perfect and would be a whooping 30 standard deviations above average for IQ!

If you don't understand how that works, here's a quote from the comments on the article I posted that might help explain a little how IQ scales.
Click to expand...

Good book on this - Neuromancer by William Gibson. I think it was pretty much what they based the Deus Ex universe on.
 
Antics said:
Where are you getting this figure from?



The only things they could really get here that can't be found in abundance (to our knowledge) elsewhere would be chlorophylls and proteins.

That said, since both of those compounds can be generated through artificially induced biological processes there's no reason a species advanced enough to traverse the universe would rather make the trip all the way here to 'harvest' as opposed to just growing their own.
Click to expand...

Sounds reasonable... unless, you know; they just like the sound of our Blood Curdling Screams.
 
_poto_ said:
The link I posted has more information. Some of it is kind of technical though.

Basically, the Chinese have been working to identify all the genes associated with intelligence. They've found there are about 1000 negative alleles (genes) that impact intelligence. People with say only 970 negative alleles are 1 standard deviation above average for IQ. People who are genius level today have dozens less negative alleles than average, and are several standard deviations above average for IQ.

If you do the math and extrapolate that out, somebody with zero negative alleles for intelligence would be genetically perfect and would be a whooping 30 standard deviations above average for IQ!

If you don't understand how that works, here's a quote from the comments on the article I posted that might help explain a little how IQ scales.
Click to expand...

Bio Anthro/Evolutionary Bio background so I'm comfortable with genetics :1bluewinky:

Do you have a link to any papers that the Chinese group has published? I haven't been keeping up with a lot of the newer genetics research the past ~14 months so this is all news to me!

Always will have a twinge of skepticism for anything coming out of Chinese lab or university though. Every single Chinese national I ever knew in my program was a cheating little piece of shit pissing away their parents' money.
 
Antics said:
Bio Anthro/Evolutionary Bio background so I'm comfortable with genetics :1bluewinky:

Do you have a link to any papers that the Chinese group has published? I haven't been keeping up with a lot of the newer genetics research the past ~14 months so this is all news to me!

Always will have a twinge of skepticism for anything coming out of Chinese lab or university though. Every single Chinese national I ever knew in my program was a cheating little piece of shit pissing away their parents' money.
Click to expand...

I haven't been following it closely myself, just catch an occasional article here or there. I think it's being done by BGI (Beijing Genomics Institute) which is one of the largest gene sequencing places in the world. They've got the hardware to do this.

I remember some previous articles about taking a DNA sample of either 10k or 100k people who were above average intelligence and using it compared to the general population to try to identify intelligence genes. I think this is some of the results of that effort. The 550 IQ is just an estimate based on the math though. It's not known for sure what exactly will happen if we remove all the negative alleles...

As far as I know the Chinese don't have a plan to start producing kids with genetically perfect brains yet, but once this research and the ability to modify embryos to this level is more mature, somebody is going to do it.
 
Yeah, no matter how many times our sci-fi writers, futurologists, and even hollywood warns us about these dangers, we'll still move forward with it.

The goal here should be as Asimov has approached it, which is going ahead and establishing a set of ethical codes for the behavior for these intelligences, such as in I, Robot and his other writings.

Of course, the problem comes with sentience and a self-aware cognition that's able to use self-referential loops, learn, simulate/actually have emotion, use induction and deductive reasoning, and even intuition. Nothing we code into consciousness is going to hold forever, such as we see now with religions and cultural norms. When some asshole robot decides to start upgrading itself into a murderous machine, that'll be a baby level of the true games they'll be able to play over us, like The Matrix.

Here's a great short story by Asimov about the ultimate level that this stuff could go is called "The Last Question." I can't post links yet due to post count I think, so give that a search. It'll blow your mind. Then you can rock the companion story which is even crazier, called "The Last Answer."
 
Future State said:
Yeah, no matter how many times our sci-fi writers, futurologists, and even hollywood warns us about these dangers, we'll still move forward with it.

The goal here should be as Asimov has approached it, which is going ahead and establishing a set of ethical codes for the behavior for these intelligences, such as in I, Robot and his other writings.

Of course, the problem comes with sentience and a self-aware cognition that's able to use self-referential loops, learn, simulate/actually have emotion, use induction and deductive reasoning, and even intuition. Nothing we code into consciousness is going to hold forever, such as we see now with religions and cultural norms. When some asshole robot decides to start upgrading itself into a murderous machine, that'll be a baby level of the true games they'll be able to play over us, like The Matrix.

Here's a great short story by Asimov about the ultimate level that this stuff could go is called "The Last Question." I can't post links yet due to post count I think, so give that a search. It'll blow your mind. Then you can rock the companion story which is even crazier, called "The Last Answer."
Click to expand...

Not my mind...
http://www.wickedfire.com/shooting-shit/149357-im-finally-ok-fact-we-live-computer-simulation.html
 
Future State said:
When some asshole robot decides to start upgrading itself into a murderous machine, that'll be a baby level of the true games they'll be able to play over us, like The Matrix.
Click to expand...

Humans tinkering with their own DNA is the same thing as a Robot tinkering with its own source code. A good question would be who perfects self hacking first.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom