Hillary Clinton's First Campaign Ad

It's still way too early to rely on these numbers...

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But it'll be interesting to see how the lines move as the primaries get under way.

Currently:

Clinton: 13/10
Bush: 4/1
Walker: 10/1
Rubio: 12/1
Warren: 14/1
Paul: 14/1

Lol, brb buying Clinton on Betfair and selling after first television appearance. Clinton is OLD and she won't be able to hide it on a long campaign trail. Millenials won't vote for a grandma with white hair in the end. She might still be favorite but those ods are not going to stay that way. Rand Paul will also surge after a few good showings in the same states where Ron Paul got 2nd and 3rd in last primaries.
 


There is no fucking way a Republican can win another presidential election as long as the party doesn't change its stance, or the way its stance is perceived, towards minorities.

Nearly no black person is going to vote Republican - you just lost 13% of the vote (and probably more because blacks have higher turnout than whites). The vast majority of Hispanics are going to vote Democrat. That's another 17% of the population you aren't even remotely competitive in.

Now of course Obama is a minority magnet. With Hillary the Democratic dominance of minorities (read: turnout) is not going to be as overwhelming, but it's going to be there nonetheless.

Hispanics are key today and even more tomorrow. Their percentages are ever increasing. Right now they're lost to the right.

But to Republicans' fortune, it'll be much easier to sway Hispanics than to sway Blacks. Hispanics are simply more important with their hugely growing numbers. They are also religious, yeah it's Catholic but actually has similar JESUS + STRONG FAMILY values that the religious right has.

The GOP, once it understands the predicament it's in (doesn't look like they're aware yet), will take steps to stop alienating Hispanics, and then the presidential elections will become competitive again. Marco Rubio would be a good start.

I give Hillary 90% chance of becoming the President. It's not because she's awesome and everybody loves her. It's because she's a Democrat and Democrats will win the next presidential election.

W Bush got 44 percent of hispanics, and Romney got 27 percent by comparison.

(Just adding to the discussion)
 
Yeah, that's why I was saying it's not that hard for Republicans to be competitive among Hispanics. It's going to happen eventually, but right now they seem to be alienating them more and more. The GOP is a very capable party but they still seem to think you can win elections by being the party of white people.
 
I give Hillary 90% chance of becoming the President. It's not because she's awesome and everybody loves her.
You do realize she is a fat old lady right - with an enormous sense of entitlement, a distinctly unlikable personality, and a shitty politician to boot. People genuinely don't like her, not even in the media. You watch - I wouldn't give her 90% to win democratic nomination.

Bill Clinton energized voters. Barack Obama energized voters. Who the fuck is Hillary Clinton going to energize? Her greatest asset is that she's a money machine - which guarantees nothing.
 
You do realize she is a fat old lady right - with an enormous sense of entitlement, a distinctly unlikable personality, and a shitty politician to boot. People genuinely don't like her, not even in the media. You watch - I wouldn't give her 90% to win democratic nomination.

Bill Clinton energized voters. Barack Obama energized voters. Who the fuck is Hillary Clinton going to energize? Her greatest asset is that she's a money machine - which guarantees nothing.

You're actually right. I give the eventual Democratic nominee like 95% chances of becoming President. But is Hillary certain to be that person? Very likely, but still not certain.

Democrats had the first black nominee and they certainly made sure to use that. Now it's gonna be the first female nominee. So whereas Hillary is indeed a fat old lady, she can energize crowds just because she's a woman.
 
So whereas Hillary is indeed a fat old lady, she can energize crowds just because she's a woman.
Please read these words very carefully - Hillary Clinton will energize nobody. Barely know where to begin here.

For starters Black men will not turn out in droves to vote Hillary Clinton - an HC candidacy might possibly be a decent opp for the right GOP candidate to make inroads. Dems would be wise to steer clear of a Pro-Gay agenda in the general election and I don't think HC is slick enough walk the fine line there, not without being a target for the media.

You also vastly overstate the role of gender in a candidate like HC; women really can't relate to Hillary. That's bad - because almost no male independents will be voting for her, baked in negatives won't go away. But I can see Hillary siphoning off votes from the Green Party because of her clam.

In summation, H Clinton is a billion dollar disaster. All her money does is spook off Democratic competition. People are sick of her before the race even starts.
I personally wish her all the worst - should be entertaining to watch America get to the know the real Hillary Clinton.
 
Well we'll wait and see. Hillary sucks but she's the only electable woman in US politics now. Women are aware of this. Just like black people came out in droves and voted for Obama, I'd expect women's (already quite high) turnout to increase as well.

Even if I didn't hate Hillary Clinton I'd never vote for her. What the fuck is this royal family bullshit? Clinton v. Bush 2016 anyone? Damn.
 
None of this matters. It's all going to devolve into a situation where if you don't support her it's because you're a sexist who doesn't think women are capable of anything other than sex & sammiches.

Anyone that's been paying attention has probably noticed the groundwork that's been being laid for the last couple years by constantly driving a wedge between men and women, and we're all going to see the payoff during the 2016 election season. In other words, same playbook that got Obama elected, just swap out race for gender.

Good point. It's starting to make sense now why I keep seeing the Lesbian-Gay-Transfucks agenda constantly being pushed and these idiots whining that men have it easier.

Without that planned friction that has created a divide between men and women, you wouldn't have this man-hating crowd you have now and Hillary would get far less votes from women.
 
People, please let me add my 2 cents.

You discuss upcoming elections the point of view of ads efficacy and slogans.

Excuse me, but this is utter bullsh1t. You are not spheric horses in vacuum, nor are these politicians. If you judge by the words - you are going to lose, unfortunately.

We live in real world, where spheric horses in vacuum have to interact with their surrounding environment. Therefore, actions have power, words have none.

Do not think ISIL is too far away from the US or Putin can only brag and be an arsehole. If Europe sleeps for too long it will be attacked by ISIL terrorists from the south, and when Putin conquers Ukraine - by Russians from the east. This may cause EU to fall, cutting off great 50% of US international trade, ressulting in huge economic crysis in the next couple of years.

Therefore, it does not matter what politics say. Only what they do matters.

Obama does not want to give Javelins to Ukraine to protect it from Russian tanks. If Ukraine falls - it will be Obama's fault (with all the consequences described above) and his party will be covered in sh1t, without any chance to win. Their opponents will chew flesh from their bones and rip their bodies apart. Senator John McCain already said something like: "Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons for US protection and now we do not even give them Javelins. Shame on our democracy".

Therefore, it does not matter what politicians say and going to say in 2016. Only what they DO NOW, TODAY - really matters. Obama wants to be a peacekeeper and US are losing the leading role in international politics. No speeches can correct this.

EU forces are actually already bombing ISIL bases and convoys, French aircraft are landing only to refuel and rearm - and Obama keeps mumbling about peace and parleys. If Democrats don't stir him up - they will lose much more than upcoming elections, no matter the candidate.

God save us all in that case.
 
Because this is an optimistic variant of the future.

In pessimistic maniac Putin just presses the red button and Earth turns into a pile of radioactive crap. And you will not know till the very end, you will be unaware just as the passengers of that Malaysian Airlines Boeing MH-17 shot down by Russian terrorists at 17th of Jule, 2014.
We are all passengers of the same airliner right now.
Your discussions on slogan efficacy still seem important?

You should vote for the one who DOES. Not for the one who promises.
 
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People, please let me add my 2 cents.

You discuss upcoming elections the point of view of ads efficacy and slogans.

Excuse me, but this is utter bullsh1t. You are not spheric horses in vacuum, nor are these politicians. If you judge by the words - you are going to lose, unfortunately.

We live in real world, where spheric horses in vacuum have to interact with their surrounding environment. Therefore, actions have power, words have none.

Do not think ISIL is too far away from the US or Putin can only brag and be an arsehole. If Europe sleeps for too long it will be attacked by ISIL terrorists from the south, and when Putin conquers Ukraine - by Russians from the east. This may cause EU to fall, cutting off great 50% of US international trade, ressulting in huge economic crysis in the next couple of years.

Therefore, it does not matter what politics say. Only what they do matters.

Obama does not want to give Javelins to Ukraine to protect it from Russian tanks. If Ukraine falls - it will be Obama's fault (with all the consequences described above) and his party will be covered in sh1t, without any chance to win. Their opponents will chew flesh from their bones and rip their bodies apart. Senator John McCain already said something like: "Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons for US protection and now we do not even give them Javelins. Shame on our democracy".

Therefore, it does not matter what politicians say and going to say in 2016. Only what they DO NOW, TODAY - really matters. Obama wants to be a peacekeeper and US are losing the leading role in international politics. No speeches can correct this.

EU forces are actually already bombing ISIL bases and convoys, French aircraft are landing only to refuel and rearm - and Obama keeps mumbling about peace and parleys. If Democrats don't stir him up - they will lose much more than upcoming elections, no matter the candidate.

God save us all in that case.

Exactly! Russia is going to invade Ukraine, then Belarus, then Poland... Who is next? UK? SAD? That son of a bitch Petrov...I mean Putin!!! We should nuke them all. Fucking Russians. Who are they to rank first? Hackers...

And that ISIL shit, why dont we just send troops there? So we can protect Europe and ourselves! Just like we did with those Iraq idiots. Fucking 9/11.
Iran! I think we should first save Iran and bring some democracy there so women can have some rights god dammit! I think its even worse in Saudi Arabia for them but they are nice, we wont hurt them. Lets just destroy Iran, they are threat to all of us.
Maybe even China, for going too strong againts petro-dollar. Dont get me wrong, I just want to prevent WW3.
God bless Murica.


Vote for Hillary.
 
Exactly! Russia is going to invade Ukraine, then Belarus, then Poland... Who is next? UK? SAD? That son of a bitch Petrov...I mean Putin!!! We should nuke them all. Fucking Russians. Who are they to rank first? Hackers...

And that ISIL shit, why dont we just send troops there? So we can protect Europe and ourselves! Just like we did with those Iraq idiots. Fucking 9/11.
Iran! I think we should first save Iran and bring some democracy there so women can have some rights god dammit! I think its even worse in Saudi Arabia for them but they are nice, we wont hurt them. Lets just destroy Iran, they are threat to all of us.
Maybe even China, for going too strong againts petro-dollar. Dont get me wrong, I just want to prevent WW3.
God bless Murica.


Vote for Hillary.

fun fact... if you die of hydrogen bomb, your sarcastic smile remains intact on the ashes that once were your face.

I do not say that Hillary is the best candidate ever.

yet you mentioned several dire issues President of the US should address.

1) China economy is stalling as their 50-years old soviet equipment is crashing and air in Beijing becomes unbreathable. They will replace the equipment, no doubt, yet this will take time and money. As China was the motor of world economy for nearly a decade, US will have to back their leading position with new solutions to be able to keep the system running while China recovers. If the future President of the US fails - crisis will be much more harsh than in 2008 and you can laugh your smart ass as much as you wish.

2) ISIL wages war under green banner of Jihad - Muslims against European Christians. US have their shale oil and can look from afar - but there can be a much bloodier conflict in the Gulf, and Afghanistan might look like a boot camp should islamists succeed. Israel also promises not to stand idle, and these guys know what they are saying. Premier Netaniyagy promised to wipe out Iranian military and industrial facilities with air strikes at first signs of threat to Israel. The whole region is a barrel of gunpowder and in case Iran gets a chance to finish their nuclear program - you can book your place at the cemetary, as ayatollahs hate US with sacred hatred of fanatics.

3) Crimea annexation showed that EU is not a monolith structure and second largest economy worldwide. It appeared to be a group of sheep, showing their "deep worries" and "great concerns". By waging war in Ukraine Putin shows himself as a dictator who does not give a single f1ck on anyone's opinion (including yours, poseidon39). Without strong military hand of the US (and huge economic help embodied in liquid gas supplements), EU will not be able to resist Russia as European industry and energy generation heavily depends on Russain gas and oil.

Only strong and consistent US President may be the center, which will unite EU and make it invulnerable to Russian economic blackmail.

I do not ask to vote for Hillary. I just say that Obama has several pots boiling at the same time and he tries to cook them all at once. Future President will have to do the same, so candidates should not be judged by their words.

Only by their actions.

You may be as sarcastic and hypocritic as you wish, this will change nothing.

After all, only 30% of Americans regularly vote. Many take their pride in never voting. Then what do you expect of your government if you do not wish to get your lazy arses up and go make something other than boasting?
 
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2) ISIL wages war under green banner of Jihad - Muslims against European Christians. US have their shale oil and can look from afar - but there can be a much bloodier conflict in the Gulf, and Afghanistan might look like a boot camp should islamists succeed. Israel also promises not to stand idle, and these guys know what they are saying. Premier Netaniyagy promised to wipe out Iranian military and industrial facilities with air strikes at first signs of threat to Israel. The whole region is a barrel of gunpowder and in case Iran gets a chance to finish their nuclear program - you can book your place at the cemetary, as ayatollahs hate US with sacred hatred of fanatics.

The only reason Iran want a nuclear bomb is because he is afraid he will be destroyed, since he is not US ally. There are US troops in Iraq and Afg. Izrael hate them, and SA too. Thing with Syria is partly gas battle (Quatar and SA want to sell gas to Europe) and partly plan of surrounding Iran. So dont be idiot my friend, look at it from their perspective.

3) Crimea annexation showed that EU is not a monolith structure and second largest economy worldwide. It appeared to be a group of sheep, showing their "deep worries" and "great concerns". By waging war in Ukraine Putin shows himself as a dictator who does not give a single f1ck on anyone's opinion (including yours, poseidon39). Without strong military hand of the US (and huge economic help embodied in liquid gas supplements), EU will not be able to resist Russia as European industry and energy generation heavily depends on Russain gas and oil.

Nah, some EU countries just dont want to do things US expect them to do, because it does not benefit them. They dont buy youre propaganda about 'evil Russians' that want to conquer whole world, just so they can buy more weapons from US companies.
Btw, US army would lose battle in Ukraine if they send troops there. US army need to have total control of air to be able to win there, and that is impossible since Russians have best anti-air defense in the world.

Even if this is not true, you dont see how retarded you are. You actually want to start nuclear war because of Ukraine? Who gives a fuck about Crimea? They vote it themselves.
And dont suggest to arm Ukraine with heavy weapons, because you would sound double retarded. That would start a cold war and Putin can than have green light to arm North Korea for example, what would you do then?

Only strong and consistent US President may be the center, which will unite EU and make it invulnerable to Russian economic blackmail.

I do not ask to vote for Hillary. I just say that Obama has several pots boiling at the same time and he tries to cook them all at once. Future President will have to do the same, so candidates should not be judged by their words.

Only by their actions.

What do you suggest, genius?

If you think Obama is making decisions on foreign policy on his own, man...you are triple retarded.
 
Jeb Bush is looking like the best-smelling shit sandwich out there. I didn't realize he's so ridiculously different than George W, even though Jeb is always [apparently unfairly] portrayed as the really dumb one of the group I guess?
 
The only reason Iran want a nuclear bomb is because he is afraid he will be destroyed, since he is not US ally. There are US troops in Iraq and Afg. Izrael hate them, and SA too. Thing with Syria is partly gas battle (Quatar and SA want to sell gas to Europe) and partly plan of surrounding Iran. So dont be idiot my friend, look at it from their perspective.



Nah, some EU countries just dont want to do things US expect them to do, because it does not benefit them. They dont buy youre propaganda about 'evil Russians' that want to conquer whole world, just so they can buy more weapons from US companies.
Btw, US army would lose battle in Ukraine if they send troops there. US army need to have total control of air to be able to win there, and that is impossible since Russians have best anti-air defense in the world.

Even if this is not true, you dont see how retarded you are. You actually want to start nuclear war because of Ukraine? Who gives a fuck about Crimea? They vote it themselves.
And dont suggest to arm Ukraine with heavy weapons, because you would sound double retarded. That would start a cold war and Putin can than have green light to arm North Korea for example, what would you do then?



What do you suggest, genius?

If you think Obama is making decisions on foreign policy on his own, man...you are triple retarded.

The only tripple retarded person here seems to be you, unfortunately.

1.) Islam can be secular - like in Middle Asia (Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) - or it can be foundamentalistic - like ISIL, who destroyed 3000- years-old statues in museum in Nineveh, majestic remnants of empires that was far before their "prophet". They hate everybody around because other people are not Muslim - just like those 2 bastards who shot Charlie Hebdo office in Paris on the 7th of January this year. Or that guy in Canada, who was born Canadian, then turned to Islam and shot an Honor Guard dead in the middle of Parliament Hill (2014 shootings at Parliament Hill, Ottawa - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia).

this has nothing to do with politics. Jihadists just hate everybody, because their Prophet told them so. And now they are going to have a nuclear bomb.
And you say it's okay? Loud applause, my retarded sir.

2.) Many Europeans don't understand - just as you do - that Putin is not after Crimea or Ukraine. He dreams of restoring not only the Soviet Union, but the whole Soviet system, including Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Poland, Baltic countries, etc. He expressed this multiple times and in recently published film about Crimea annexation he told it directly "I was ready to use nuclear weapons in case Ukraine resisted me in Crimea". He is a maniac with a nuclear bomb and people like you, poseidon39, let Putin prevail out of fear. You seem like an ostrich, digging head into the sand from danger - yet leaving your arse exposed. Get ready to be kicked into it.

Not a single European country or the US, or even China aknowledged the so-called "referendum". If you think Crimea "voted" - you are double retarded, really. And about arming North Corea... well... Ukrainian troops held Donetsk airport for 250 days, Russians lost about a hundred tanks\missile launchers there, they lost about 9 000 troops already - and Ukrainians still hold the Peski village on the outskirts of Donetsk.

At Debaltzevo battle that lasted for a month Russians lost about 200 vehicles and nearly 8 000 troops - and 2000 Ukrainians were not surrounded as Putin promised - and got away. Ukrainian troops consist mainly of volunteers, while Putin throws his best spec ops, who are afterwards buried in unnamed graves.

Arming North Corea? With what? With the same 40-years old weaponry Russian themselves use? You are making my slippers smile. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia Premier, offered Vietnam Russian weaponry in exchange for food during his visit last week. This is all you should know of "Russian supremacy". They have new designs - 1-2 max. They need to make hundreds of these to make them really mean anything. And they have no time or money to do that.

About AA defense - Ukraine has the same Buk stations Russia has. Therefore, there would not be air superiority, not it is needed.

NOBODY ASKS AMERICANS TO GO INTO FIGHT. Ukraine gave US 1200 NUCLEAR MISSILES for promise of PROTECTION - read 1994 Budapesht Memorandum of Ukraine nuclear disarm. Now Ukraine asks for Javelins - not
for M1 Abramses or for US marine corpse - they only ask for anti-tank armament - and US refuse to give it. Ukrainians begin production of their own anti-tank missile units "Stugna" - and when this is done - US will have a big pile of sh1t directly into the face. Because Obama still does not sign the order to protect Ukraine, as the US promised. Can promises of the US and NATO be trusted in that case?

If you think this is about Ukraine - you are double retarded. This is about existence of EU and our Premier, David Cameron, as well as Presidents and Premiers of other countries of EU know this very well.

Your opinion on this matter does not mean a thing.

3.) I clearly understand that Obama is not a dictator and does not solve all questions by himself. However, in these particular questions - arming Ukraine and disarming Iran - he resists huge influence of Congress, people like John McCain and other senators. Does he want to be a peacekeeper? Maybe.

Sir Winston Churchill said: "Peacekeepers are the ones who feed alligators with their childs in hope to be eaten last". He said that about European politicians who tried to pacify Hitler before the WWII. You know the results.
He also said "Americans always do the right thing, after trying everywhing else"

70 years afterwards we will see if modern politicians learned from the lessons of WWII and Cold War.

It does not matter what you think or say. It does not matter what Hillary Clinton says. What she DOES (as well as all other candidates) - that is what really matters.

That's what my post is about. Don't evaluate speeches. Evaluate actions. And if you decide to troll my words - you indeed are a triple retarded person.

I lost interest to this conversation.