How do I forecast these sales?

Status
Not open for further replies.
R

reddvinylene

New member
Sep 10, 2008
13
0
0
Hi, I'm trying to forecast some sales.

I have no idea what I'm doing, but anyhow: I have an Excel spreadsheet listing the states I want to market to, the GDP per capita (PPP) of each state, how many men there are in my market, and how many women. I assume the conversion ratio is 2% for men and %5 for women.

Now that I got this - what basic mathematics / advanced economic models could I apply to try to forecast sales? And is there any other data that I could try get my hands on that could help me create an even more precise model?

Thanks!
 


This is too macro of a way to forecast for 99.9% of businesses. Test, collect data, and then forecast.

Edit: you'd need marginal propensity to spend and the marginal value of each dollar to truly make any even moderately reasonable calculations out of the data you have. GDP PPP doesn't define the value of a dollar, and each further dollar is, theoretically, less valuable than the last. You'd also need to know some sort of approximation of your own demand schedule (how much people will buy at each income/cost combination).
 
Your doing it wrong, Affiliate Marketing doesn't work like that you have to test and test and test. And keep what works and cut all the rest and then test some more. You can't predict what your sales are going to be until you jump in and send traffic to your offers.
 
Refrozen said:
This is too macro of a way to forecast for 99.9% of businesses. Test, collect data, and then forecast.

Edit: you'd need marginal propensity to spend and the marginal value of each dollar to truly make any even moderately reasonable calculations out of the data you have. GDP PPP doesn't define the value of a dollar, and each further dollar is, theoretically, less valuable than the last. You'd also need to know some sort of approximation of your own demand schedule (how much people will buy at each income/cost combination).
Click to expand...

Thanks a lot man that was EXACTLY what I needed to know!

Any idea how to find this marginal /average propensity to consume though? Does anyone offer such lists or do I have to make one myself? Wikipedia only lists GDP and stuff.

All the best!
 
reddvinylene said:
Thanks a lot man that was EXACTLY what I needed to know!

Any idea how to find this marginal /average propensity to consume though? Does anyone offer such lists or do I have to make one myself? Wikipedia only lists GDP and stuff.

All the best!
Click to expand...
Large corporations spending tens of thousands of dollars on market research firms to gather this data & perform analysis for them. It's not worth attempting it on your own or hiring a firm at your level. As others have said, test, see what kind of traction you can get, and then work your estimates and forecasts from there.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom