Is Google headed towards $1000?

[mGrunin]

This thread was created back when Google was at $840 and I labeled it as a SELL at that point. It ended up consolidating at its support; $810 for two weeks just like I said it would before finally breaking down and coming down to $760.

Well Google just reported an earnings beat and rallied $33 into the close to finish at $799. At this point I will have to say that GOOG is looking like a BUY. You can wait for further confirmation if it breaks past $810 first, but it does look solid. We could definitely see Google testing $840 again within the next two weeks.

Happy Trading.

 

[cpauser]

i would have loved to sink 60k in google for a quick return like I did in 2008 and made 10k in a sinlge day, but all my $ tied up.

A good strategy for google is to always buy it before earnings if its down a lot for no apparent reason because the fundamentals stack the odds in favor of longs versus pure luck. Only three times in google's 9 year history as a traded company has it ever fallen more than a few percent on earnings and that was usually when the stock was trading very high relative to the market.

fundamentals > technicals. google & facebook are the only major players in rapidly growing mobile advertising space. this is easily going to $840 + assuming the general market doesn't tank which I am very confident it won't

 

[vinnythejinny]

I would say invest in AAPL at such stupid low levels. I know market has been flushing them down the toilet but they can probably give higher overall ROI over google if AAPL goes up from here. Afterall "be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful"

 

[heymisterblack]

If they launch their ISP to someplace other than Kansas City it's gonna be pretty serious

They're going to open up in Austin, TX here pretty soon. KC is a pretty huge success so far. But I'd say the odds of them hitting $1K or not really depends on how well the whole "google glasses" project pans out. The hype is there, it's just a matter on capitalizing it with a solid product.

 

[Digidex]

We need to have an investment forum or a wealth management forum. There have been a lot of good reads lately.

 

[g1c9]

I'm a noob at all this but...

There's a lot of people in here talking about how Google's future products could raise it's stock price and value. These possibilities are theoretically already built into the price, although this board is probably more likely to make accurate predictions in the online/search/web space than the general public(/institutional investors?/analysts?).

But more importantly I think that kind of thinking is fundamentally either irrelevant to McGrunin, who appears to be trading (holding less than a week, making decisions based on earnings statements and daily changes, etc.).

McGrunin, would you mind recommending some trading books or literature or textbooks or forums? All I've read so far covers fundamentals, investing, the number, the past century, and they all pretty much bash chartists/traders, so I'd love to study some of that just for the intellectual fun.

 

[redgsr]

I would say invest in AAPL at such stupid low levels. I know market has been flushing them down the toilet but they can probably give higher overall ROI over google if AAPL goes up from here. Afterall "be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful"

I would stay clear of aapl for a while. At least wait until earnings come out tomorrow evening. Tanked about $100 last earnings release and technically they weren't that bad.

Apple is the most bashed stock I have ever seen - regardless of how well it performs the aapl bashers are out in full force.

 

[mGrunin]

i would have loved to sink 60k in google for a quick return like I did in 2008 and made 10k in a sinlge day, but all my $ tied up.

A good strategy for google is to always buy it before earnings if its down a lot for no apparent reason because the fundamentals stack the odds in favor of longs versus pure luck. Only three times in google's 9 year history as a traded company has it ever fallen more than a few percent on earnings and that was usually when the stock was trading very high relative to the market.

fundamentals > technicals. google & facebook are the only major players in rapidly growing mobile advertising space. this is easily going to $840 + assuming the general market doesn't tank which I am very confident it won't

Fundamentals do not control the markets, emotion does. I have list a dozens of stocks that are worth hundreds of dollars per share but have completely overvalued fundamentals. At the same time I can show you stocks with fantastic fundamentals but being beaten by the markets.

Fundamentals are important but I would spend more time relying on technicals. Trade on both and you will be successful.

I would say invest in AAPL at such stupid low levels. I know market has been flushing them down the toilet but they can probably give higher overall ROI over google if AAPL goes up from here. Afterall "be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful"

Apple does look good here, but guess what. It looked good at $420/$460/$500/$560 and so on. People have been saying it has dropped too much for the past $200 at least. The last thing you want to do is trying to "catch a falling knife" as much as we do see that line often..

Bottom line, do not attempt to predict a change in trend. Become part of a trend when it occurs instead.

 

[pixelo]

I don't know about that.

Need a divorce lawyer? GOOG.
Source vacation ideas? Friends from FB will say "St. Croix" or "Hawaii" - and then it's off to GOOG for the brass tacks.
Thinking about selling your house? Google search.
Thinking about buying a car? Google search for info.

Bored? FB

A lot has to change.

FB is a little slower, but they will be able to monetise massively.

Imagine if they release Pay with Facebook. Or their own operating system, or even search.

FB is a long term bet.

 

[cpauser]

are important but I would spend more time relying on technicals. Trade on both and you will be successful.
.

agree..both are importan

google is taking over the world and have no competitors with massive growth. it's hard to find many companies in such an advantageous position.

stay away from apple..dead money. the enthusaism has long evaportaed. and wont be retruning. cloud/mobile advertising is a better business than pretty looking electronics.

 

[mGrunin]

Apple reports their earnings after market close tomorrow. Lets take a look at a few crucial levels for Apple:

First of all, Apple is staying very loyal to the moving resistance. If earnings come in positive, we need a break above $420 to break out of the downward trend. Once that is done, there will be some pressure at $440 with the trend that has been forming since February.

If there is a miss, then $350 comes into play and you can bet that it will touch that zone. That is a very strong support level for Apple. If we miss earnings, short all the way down to $350. Breaks $350, short again until $325. We wouldn't see the next major support until $250.

If there will be a beat, we will move up very quickly. $420 - > $440 -> $465 should be hit within two weeks time.

Keep a close eye.

 

[cpauser]

It's pretty rare for a stock in a strong, prolonged downward trajectory to have a substantial, long lasting reversal of fortune on an earnings report. I don't think i've ever seen it happen.

Usually when poor performing companies reverse it happens well in advance of earnings reports, often for no obvious reason at all.

 

[mGrunin]

It's pretty rare for a stock in a strong, prolonged downward trajectory to have a substantial, long lasting reversal of fortune on an earnings report. I don't think i've ever seen it happen.

Usually when poor performing companies reverse it happens well in advance of earnings reports, often for no obvious reason at all.

You haven't seen it happen because you don't follow the markets closely enough. Spend less time thinking and more time looking at charts.

An example is Netflix:

Today after the market close Netflix beat earnings estimate with 31c EPS versus a 19c EPS estimate by analysts. This sent Netflix up 25% in the aftermarket to $220 where I have marked it with an X. Take a look as to what the EPS for NFLX used to be the last time it was at $220; it was $1.32.

Netflix has seen a high of $304 in its lifetime and a low of $55 since its downfall. Since its low in August, it has 4x its value. So is it impossible for a stock to reverse its movement when it is performing poorly and only has an earnings report to look up to? Off course not.

 

[mGrunin]

If there is anyone looking to table a gamble on Apple's earnings report and believes it will come in positive. This is a decent position to open up:

If you only did 4 contracts. $552 maximum risk. $1448 maximum gain. As long as it is over $425 come next Friday you will realize the maximum gain. If they do miss, you shouldn't lose the whole $552. You would obviously lose a good portion of it, but you can possibly still get out with 15-20% of your capital.

 

[cpauser]

You haven't seen it happen because you don't follow the markets closely enough. Spend less time thinking and more time looking at charts.

An example is Netflix:

Today after the market close Netflix beat earnings estimate with 31c EPS versus a 19c EPS estimate by analysts. This sent Netflix up 25% in the aftermarket to $220 where I have marked it with an X. Take a look as to what the EPS for NFLX used to be the last time it was at $220; it was $1.32.

Netflix has seen a high of $304 in its lifetime and a low of $55 since its downfall. Since its low in August, it has 4x its value. So is it impossible for a stock to reverse its movement when it is performing poorly and only has an earnings report to look up to? Off course not.

Look closely at the chart..NFLX ran from 60 to 100 on apparently little news..and then it reported its monster earnings report, surging to $150. Smart money saw a turnaround that was affirmed by the subsequent earnings reports.

I have been contemplating a OTM call strategy for high volatility stocks, but don't know if it would work. To get 1000% returns you need to go waaay OTM

 

[mGrunin]

Look closely at the chart..NFLX ran from 60 to 100 on apparently little news..and then it reported its monster earnings report, surging to $150. Smart money saw a turnaround that was affirmed by the subsequent earnings reports.

I have been contemplating a OTM call strategy for high volatility stocks, but don't know if it would work. To get 1000% returns you need to go waaay OTM

Dude, no news? They reported earnings three times during that time frame.

 

[Jcraig83]

If there is anyone looking to table a gamble on Apple's earnings report and believes it will come in positive. This is a decent position to open up:

If you only did 4 contracts. $552 maximum risk. $1448 maximum gain. As long as it is over $425 come next Friday you will realize the maximum gain. If they do miss, you shouldn't lose the whole $552. You would obviously lose a good portion of it, but you can possibly still get out with 15-20% of your capital.

Always enjoy your analysis, if you have some free time could you explain to us investodummies what we are looking at here? I would be interested in taking that gamble for the lulz.

 

[cpauser]

Dude, no news? They reported earnings three times during that time frame.

I'm looking at the time between Oct. 2012 and jan 2013

right now best buy is roaring higher..probably a good earnings report in the pipeline

same for groupon

 

[groneg]

Fundamentals do not control the markets, emotion does. I have list a dozens of stocks that are worth hundreds of dollars per share but have completely overvalued fundamentals. At the same time I can show you stocks with fantastic fundamentals but being beaten by the markets.

Fundamentals are important but I would spend more time relying on technicals. Trade on both and you will be successful.

Now that's progress. Exactly 1 year... Impressive

 

[mGrunin]

I'm looking at the time between Oct. 2012 and jan 2013

right now best buy is roaring higher..probably a good earnings report in the pipeline

same for groupon

There is a Oct earning release that it popped on....

Notice how it was bouncing in the same zone before an earnings report that had it trending up? Then another gap up after the next earnings report.

CPAUser, please take some time to back up your "thinking" with some charts otherwise you are just wasting my time with your guessing.