Money Supply vs The Dow
- Thread starter BlokBlok
- Start date
DOW is a bad indicator, since it reflects only a sliver of the market.
But... stock prices in real terms have probably not changed that much in a long time once you adjust for REAL inflation (10-15 years). For a long time the fed has been tinkering with how it calculates inflation to hide the reality of what is going on.
Still, I believe long term (not trader, but looking at the economy) we are in for a big bust (the end of the current cyclical and the start of a new bear cyclical) which is part of the current secular bear market (we have been in one since at least the early 2000s, if not the late 90s). This will then be followed by a long 15-20 year secular bull like the one we had between the 80s and early 2000s.
The bust will happen once the fed stops it's QEs and raises interest rates. This will eventually lead to a massive inflow of capital to what will be a now strong dollar. This in turn will pump up real estate, which will push consumer spending and thus stocks. Also, the US will start exploiting much of the energy it has once we have depleted much of foreign energy; this will help boost American industry.
Apart from trends, something that gives me an extra incentive to believe in this scenario is the fact that everyone thinks the dollar and the US are over. People are saying the petro dollar is over, that US has lost it's military might, that the china is taking over. The reality of trends tends to be almost the diametric opposite of what the majority believe is true. CNBC and other such whores push up the most just around the cusp and push down the most at the bottom.
Also, consumer participation in the market is low, but once we have a bust it will be super low. That is when the elites will pump it up. They play the same game as pump and dump scams, but they play it at a much bigger level, with much longer time frames.
In b4 greeney is a conspiracy, communist nut.
But... stock prices in real terms have probably not changed that much in a long time once you adjust for REAL inflation (10-15 years). For a long time the fed has been tinkering with how it calculates inflation to hide the reality of what is going on.
Still, I believe long term (not trader, but looking at the economy) we are in for a big bust (the end of the current cyclical and the start of a new bear cyclical) which is part of the current secular bear market (we have been in one since at least the early 2000s, if not the late 90s). This will then be followed by a long 15-20 year secular bull like the one we had between the 80s and early 2000s.
The bust will happen once the fed stops it's QEs and raises interest rates. This will eventually lead to a massive inflow of capital to what will be a now strong dollar. This in turn will pump up real estate, which will push consumer spending and thus stocks. Also, the US will start exploiting much of the energy it has once we have depleted much of foreign energy; this will help boost American industry.
Apart from trends, something that gives me an extra incentive to believe in this scenario is the fact that everyone thinks the dollar and the US are over. People are saying the petro dollar is over, that US has lost it's military might, that the china is taking over. The reality of trends tends to be almost the diametric opposite of what the majority believe is true. CNBC and other such whores push up the most just around the cusp and push down the most at the bottom.
Also, consumer participation in the market is low, but once we have a bust it will be super low. That is when the elites will pump it up. They play the same game as pump and dump scams, but they play it at a much bigger level, with much longer time frames.
In b4 greeney is a conspiracy, communist nut.
You are right. There has never been cases of mass market manipuation (libor, enron in CA) and if there has ever been such instances of people using power, then they have always been documented.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is paranoid.
BTW, hellblazer, is that you?
What about before the increase?
Although, there is something to inflation of the money supply and increases in prices. And those price increases are not flat, certain markets and products are more likely to get inflated than others.
Two of those are the stock market and real estate, both highly speculative activities.
lol'd
Reminds me of when Ron Paul told everyone in that debate that decades ago he could buy a tank of gas with just one silver dime. Everyone laughed at him until he pointed out that he still can because gas didn't get more expensive in relation to silver, the value of the dollar just shrunk. Lots of awkward stares were had all around. Pretty sure the next question was about killing people in foreign lands.