Netflix's Next Hurdle...

JakeStratham

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Simply put, deals with studios to stream their content. Here's the story in a nutshell.

Netflix built its brand on mailing DVDs to subscribers.


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They could do so quickly and at relatively low cost because of the placement of their distribution centers. Hence, Blockbuster and other would-be competitors never stood a chance. Netflix did well for their stockholders.


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But things in that space evolved quickly. Streaming content quickly became a major part of Netflix's business. Customers liked it, so the company started cutting deals with studios in an attempt to lock out Hulu and others.


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A few studios and creators were resistant. This is the reason you cannot stream HBO content (Sopranos, Curb Your Enthusiasm, etc.).

The bigger problem for Netflix: many of the deals they cut a few years back are about to expire. Some of the studios want to stream content via their own networks. As one analyst put it:

"Studios are starting to put their foot down," says ThinkEquity senior analyst Atul Bagga. "They weren't paying attention to streaming at all, but now they see an opportunity to monetize. And they're going to take it."

You may have noticed that Dexter and Californication are no longer available for streaming. Both were recently pulled by Showtime.

At the same time, Amazon and Hulu are licking their chops, waiting to grab a slice of the streaming pie. That's trouble for Netflix. Their impressive network of distribution centers is not going to help them cut exclusive deals with studios.

Meanwhile, costs are rising. According to the CNN piece linked above...

... Netflix's streaming content licensing costs will rise from $180 million in 2010 to a whopping $1.98 billion in 2012.

Netflix is essentially a content aggregator (though this may change in the future). They depend on others' content for their revenue. While mailing DVDs remains a profit center, it's not the future in that space. Netflix needs to stream. And there's a major hurdle coming down the pipe.

That is all. I find this stuff interesting, and thought a few of you would, too. :)
 


Hulu isn't even in the picture. Amazon is def going to be a big competitor with netflix.

You can stream amazon straight from samsung tv's out of the box. I know you can do this with netflix too. But with amazon you get other percs when subscribing. Amazon also has a store / brand in place without the movies, so they can bill extra as needed. Personally I think amazon could take over netflix, in terms of looking at it from the business side.
 
The bigger problem for Netflix: many of the deals they cut a few years back are about to expire. Some of the studios want to stream content via their own networks. As one analyst put it:

I've heard speculation that Netflix may just buy Starz outright when the licensing talks fire up again, that's how important they view the relationship.


All I know is I wouldn't mind paying a premium to whoever could get it all, HBO, Showtime, new release movies, old back catalogs into one location. I've got netflix streaming, I've bought stuff off Zune (Microsoft) and even one movie off Amazon Unbox (but the quality is shit).
 
So you're saying I should short netflix stock?

Not necessarily.

I have a background in stock analysis, but never make recommendations. Even if I did in a general sense, I would not do so here because I'm unfamiliar with the space. I monitor it, and I'm fascinated by it, but I'm ignorant of the fundamentals (I'm not a momentum guy). :)
 
netflix sucks anyway, need to step aside and let a big company come in and provide a bigger live streaming content library. Most of the shit on netflix live stream is 90% crap you've never heard of. I want someone to have a live stream library and keep adding to it without swapping movies out.
 
netflix sucks anyway, need to step aside and let a big company come in and provide a bigger live streaming content library. Most of the shit on netflix live stream is 90% crap you've never heard of. I want someone to have a live stream library and keep adding to it without swapping movies out.

I actually like a lot of the crap they have. Lots of indie movies, documentaries, foreign films etc. If I want a mainstream block buster then there is always itunes/zune and I can pay a bit extra.

I might pay an extra $5-10 for additional content like showtime/HBO stuff, but that's about it. If they jack prices too much, then it's back to demonoid I go.
 
netflix sucks anyway, need to step aside and let a big company come in and provide a bigger live streaming content library. Most of the shit on netflix live stream is 90% crap you've never heard of. I want someone to have a live stream library and keep adding to it without swapping movies out.

I freakin' love it and at the price and i get way more then my moneys worth
 
Another item to add to the narrative along with a question:

Can Microsoft become the next big subscription VOD player? — Online Video News

Microsoft is interested in rolling out a new subscription video service, which would launch on Xbox Live later this year, The Daily reported late last week. The appearance of a new subscription service could pit it against existing services like Netflix and Hulu Plus, as Microsoft seeks to grab more revenues from a newly redesigned Xbox Live service.


For those of you with experience on Xbox Live, could this stick? Could MS gain a significant foothold in the streaming space through Xbox?
 
Can Microsoft become the next big subscription VOD player? — Online Video News

For those of you with experience on Xbox Live, could this stick? Could MS gain a significant foothold in the streaming space through Xbox?

XBox Live + Netflix = awesome streaming experience.

I can't see MS buying Netflix, but Hulu has been bandied about lately as looking for a possible buyout. I think MS buying Hulu would be a great combo, Microsoft would have a well branded content aggregator in Hulu to match with it's distribution through XBox Live, and they could make the content free to Windows Phone 7 users (it's got Zune guts in it) to help entice people toward WP7; and the studios would probably love having a deep pocketed licenser to offset the dominance of Apple and Netflix.
 
netflix sucks anyway, need to step aside and let a big company come in and provide a bigger live streaming content library. Most of the shit on netflix live stream is 90% crap you've never heard of. I want someone to have a live stream library and keep adding to it without swapping movies out.

That is wrong, I signed up for Netlix on demand over a year ago and it was awful. Now is a different story.

Can the studios just up and start their own streaming service and make as much as they would from licensing to Netflix is the bigger question. People like paying $7 a month. They aren't going to pay $7 a month to every studio. They will pay $7+ a month to HBO or anyone releasing brand new top quality content.

Studios don't like Google. Amazon and Apple are probably the only real threats to Netflix right now. Amazon's Prime streaming library sucks right now. Apple likes selling stuff for $3 an episode, not $7 a month.
 
XBox Live + Netflix = awesome streaming experience.

I can't see MS buying Netflix, but Hulu has been bandied about lately as looking for a possible buyout. I think MS buying Hulu would be a great combo, Microsoft would have a well branded content aggregator in Hulu to match with it's distribution through XBox Live, and they could make the content free to Windows Phone 7 users (it's got Zune guts in it) to help entice people toward WP7; and the studios would probably love having a deep pocketed licenser to offset the dominance of Apple and Netflix.


There are a few interesting things in your post. Prior to the article on Xbox, I hadn't even thought of streaming content to the console market. I didn't realize it was a big thing. I'm out of the loop. lol

Second, I hadn't thought of MS buying their way in via Hulu. That makes a lot of sense from their perspective. They seem to throw cash at a space, buy some goodies, and then look at each other blankly ("Uh, anyone know how to turn this thing on?").

Third, content to phones. Huh! Sounds intuitive, but again, I'm behind the times.

Man, you've given me lots to think about.



Can the studios just up and start their own streaming service and make as much as they would from licensing to Netflix is the bigger question. People like paying $7 a month. They aren't going to pay $7 a month to every studio. They will pay $7+ a month to HBO or anyone releasing brand new top quality content.

Studios don't like Google. Amazon and Apple are probably the only real threats to Netflix right now. Amazon's Prime streaming library sucks right now. Apple likes selling stuff for $3 an episode, not $7 a month.


That's what I was thinking, too. I wonder if the studios plan to link their streams with other packages. For example, add HBO to your cable bill, and we'll throw in the streams for free. Or, maybe the studios are planning to cut the cable guys out entirely. I could see that happening.
 
This area is definitely ripe for explosive growth. I'm in the process of replacing my old TV. The replacement I ordered comes internet ready -- both wireless and wired connection. Only a matter of time and all new TVs will be internet ready. I plan to join netflix until something better comes along.

Has anyone found a way to use an VPN with internet ready TVs?
 
netflix sucks anyway, need to step aside and let a big company come in and provide a bigger live streaming content library. Most of the shit on netflix live stream is 90% crap you've never heard of. I want someone to have a live stream library and keep adding to it without swapping movies out.


This^

I signed up for NetFlix streaming service and I after I logged in to see the selections I was like "the fuck is this shit?". Their selection sucks goat ass, I immediately canceled.
 
Another item to add to the narrative along with a question:

Can Microsoft become the next big subscription VOD player? — Online Video News




For those of you with experience on Xbox Live, could this stick? Could MS gain a significant foothold in the streaming space through Xbox?

Microsoft couldn't even get their existing VOD service right. Sure you could get new releases, but lets take this example...

Say a new Dexter comes out. Episodes in HD are about $6/each (from memory). There are gong to be say 12 episodes in the season. By the time I've spent $30 in their shitty checkout process (so fucking annoying) I'm going to give up and look elsewhere for it. What they should have done, is charge me 12 x $4 = $48 for the entire season. At $6/episode, it's cheaper to buy a boxed set ffs.
 
This^

I signed up for NetFlix streaming service and I after I logged in to see the selections I was like "the fuck is this shit?". Their selection sucks goat ass, I immediately canceled.

Yup, I cancelled during the first month. Only watched a couple "average" movies.