Possible Crackpot Says Gulf Oil Leak Unstable, May Collapse
- Thread starter SniperRyan
- Start date
I don't know but once we arrive into 2013 all the marketing power of "Oh Noes 2012 iz coming" pretty much gets flushed down the crapper.
We need to dream up a new crisis.... fast, or it'll be apocalypse to our bank accounts!
Presumably you're forgetting that Oil is less dense than water, hence why it floats, therefore if it's open, it all comes out. At least that's how i see it, but i fail to see why crude would float, yet, as you say, be able to stay under water because of pressure. papajohn56?
eh, everyone loses in the end. i tend to try and not worry about shit like this because im going to die someday, might as well live as worry-free while i can
yes Hater I am... it was tongue in cheek...
This kinda reminds me of freedom fries...
Theoretically yes but it will be very slow once the pressure equalizes... What's more worrying is that you've got this massive undersea cavity that was under high pressure which was offsetting the weight of the rock/sea above it and presumably the upward pressure contributes to the structural integrity. As ARVolund points out, normally they are pumping seawater down the hole to maintain the pressure but in this case they can't so the pressure will drop until roughly equal to what seawater would be at that depth.
I'm not an engineer but to illustrate the point, what happens to the car above a tire when you let the air out it?
Once the oil mixes with the water after it comes out of the hole if will work its way to the top. Before that though it has to have enough pressure behind it to force its way up the column and out the hole or pipe. If I remember correctly the pressure at 1 mile down is 2400 psi. Since they are not quite that far down lets call it 2000psi or 1 ton per sq inch.
The oil deposits are probably another 2k feet or more down from the bottom which means that there needs to be enough pressure pushing the oil up a 2k feet hole with 1 ton psi trying to push it down. At some point there will not be enough pressure to do so and the oil flow will stop.
How long that will be? I doubt anybody really knows for sure or wants to find out for that matter but it will happen well before the quoted 1.5 billion barrels empty into the water.
Even if it was only 1% that would still be enough oil to kill more fish than you could count.
The oil deposits are probably another 2k feet or more down from the bottom which means that there needs to be enough pressure pushing the oil up a 2k feet hole with 1 ton psi trying to push it down. At some point there will not be enough pressure to do so and the oil flow will stop.
How long that will be? I doubt anybody really knows for sure or wants to find out for that matter but it will happen well before the quoted 1.5 billion barrels empty into the water.
Even if it was only 1% that would still be enough oil to kill more fish than you could count.
I got to 23 then I ran out of fingers and toes so it's already more than I can count.
There's more to it than that.
There's also natural gas (propane), methane, and other naturally occurring gases.
Methane becomes a solid under intense pressure. When the pressure lifts it reverts to a gas. And all of those gases expand as they rise out of the well which will greatly increase the volume for the mass - or in other words the overall density will decrease, making the whole works even more prone to collapse.
I'd wager $10 we haven't nearly seen the worst of this thing yet.
Is it going to get worse? I would bet more than a few bucks on that myself.
Is it worse presently than they are saying? Very possibly.
I would have to look up the numbers but I am fairly certain that the pressures we are talking about are not anything close to producing solid methane.
The gases in the deposit are one reason that it has enough pressure to flow in the first place. From the sounds of things the percentage is fairly high which makes it more likely that the pipe structure could fail. How likely is that is very hard to say as we really have no idea of the condition of the equipment down there.
In my argument I assumed the guy was correct and the wellhead would be gone. Even if that happens you are not going to get anywhere near the whole deposit emptying into the gulf. Is it going to be a lot of oil? Yes. Is it going to be anywhere near 1.5 billion barrels? No.
Take a 2 liter bottle of soda, shake it up real good then take the top off real fast. You get a big mess but once the pressure is released it the soda stops coming out and when all is said and done most of the soda is still in the bottle. The situation in the gulf is the same process only on a much larger scale and much higher pressures.
As far as the oil dome itself collapsing, that is not going to happen. The oil does not sit in a big empty space that will collapse. It is found in porous rocks that stay behind once the oil is removed. Think of it like a stiff sponge or sand. The oil just fills in the spaces but when removed the rock is still there.
Is it worse presently than they are saying? Very possibly.
I would have to look up the numbers but I am fairly certain that the pressures we are talking about are not anything close to producing solid methane.
The gases in the deposit are one reason that it has enough pressure to flow in the first place. From the sounds of things the percentage is fairly high which makes it more likely that the pipe structure could fail. How likely is that is very hard to say as we really have no idea of the condition of the equipment down there.
In my argument I assumed the guy was correct and the wellhead would be gone. Even if that happens you are not going to get anywhere near the whole deposit emptying into the gulf. Is it going to be a lot of oil? Yes. Is it going to be anywhere near 1.5 billion barrels? No.
Take a 2 liter bottle of soda, shake it up real good then take the top off real fast. You get a big mess but once the pressure is released it the soda stops coming out and when all is said and done most of the soda is still in the bottle. The situation in the gulf is the same process only on a much larger scale and much higher pressures.
As far as the oil dome itself collapsing, that is not going to happen. The oil does not sit in a big empty space that will collapse. It is found in porous rocks that stay behind once the oil is removed. Think of it like a stiff sponge or sand. The oil just fills in the spaces but when removed the rock is still there.
Why does there have to be enough pressure to force it's way up, presumably the thing which currently sits on top i suppose? the way i see it is if it was open, which is what i'm referring to, whichever pressure is the greater wins. Water either forces down into it, or oil forces it's way up into it.
Which regardless of the pressure imbalance surely means the pressure will equalise therefore allowing the oil to pass freely up the hole and float to the service no? Otherwise why do they seal the holes closed when a well is "dry"?
We are talking here about a hole with no valves and no obstructions between the 2 masses I presume? Because how water can hold oil under the water, when it's of a lesser density and pressures are equal, seems completely bizarre and contrary to logic, so please elaborate for me.
The 2 litre bottle of soda example is silly. Fluid is more dense than air, therefore it stays. If however it was a bottle of methane, it would all empty because the air is more dense than methane and therefore replaces it as it leaves, much like what i am saying will happen with the oil.
God,
Another issue to consider once pressure is relatively equalized is surface tension. If you've ever seen a long thin tube e.g. a 1ml syringe with crack infused saline solution... if you've got an air bubble at the bottom it just stay's there under the water even though it's far less dense. The upward force from the density differential has to overcome the resistive force of the surface tension. It's actually quite difficult for two different fluids with a natural repulsion to pass each other in a thin tube. The well bore would be relatively larger and I can't recall whether the length of the tube has a bearing but at the least it would greatly slow down the exchange of oil below to above.
That's all of course assuming equalized pressure which as I mentioned above wouldn't happen as quickly as you'd expect due to the dropping pressure allowing fluids to expand into gases, acting as a dampener to the falling pressure gradient.
Another issue to consider once pressure is relatively equalized is surface tension. If you've ever seen a long thin tube e.g. a 1ml syringe with crack infused saline solution... if you've got an air bubble at the bottom it just stay's there under the water even though it's far less dense. The upward force from the density differential has to overcome the resistive force of the surface tension. It's actually quite difficult for two different fluids with a natural repulsion to pass each other in a thin tube. The well bore would be relatively larger and I can't recall whether the length of the tube has a bearing but at the least it would greatly slow down the exchange of oil below to above.
That's all of course assuming equalized pressure which as I mentioned above wouldn't happen as quickly as you'd expect due to the dropping pressure allowing fluids to expand into gases, acting as a dampener to the falling pressure gradient.
FWIW, this is what methane at 161 atm looks like (red dot):
Temperature looks about right for that depth.
phase | supercritical liquid
density | 129.5 kg/m^3
0.1295 g/cm^3
molar volume | 123.9 cm^3/mol
sound speed | 1084 mph
484.4 m/s
specific acoustic impedance | 62727 s Pa/m
Temperature looks about right for that depth.
phase | supercritical liquid
density | 129.5 kg/m^3
0.1295 g/cm^3
molar volume | 123.9 cm^3/mol
sound speed | 1084 mph
484.4 m/s
specific acoustic impedance | 62727 s Pa/m