Stock market highs because of government.. why stop it?
- Thread starter supplyshock
- Start date
Correct, it doesn't mean that there is a correction coming soon. But it does mean that we should be breaking out to the downside very soon.
I guess time will tell.
I'm a long term index investor so I don't worry too much about the down periods.
I'm a long term index investor so I don't worry too much about the down periods.
There are usually fundamental reasons for larger stock market corrections. I don't see anything stopping the market from continuing to float up.
The last major correctly was because of the Europe debt crisis, which was obvious that it was a problem before stocks sold off. Same with the 2008 crash. I don't see anything like that right now.
The last major correctly was because of the Europe debt crisis, which was obvious that it was a problem before stocks sold off. Same with the 2008 crash. I don't see anything like that right now.
The indexes traded very narrowly this week. I will stick to S&P 500 for this example, this week it moved between 9 points. Just a bit more than half a percent, and finishing only 5 points up for the week. Take a look at the economic reports that hit the market this week. Pretty positive right? Well that wasn't enough to push the markets up. Two to three weeks ago we saw the exact opposite, any negative report was not able to bring down the markets. Point being, we are hitting a lot of resistance now, there are little buyers left because the markets feel too toppy. Remember, nothing ever goes up like an elevator.
Today was quite the red day. Nadaq down 1.53%, S&P down 1.24% and Dow Jones down 0.77%. In other words, the markets are a decent bit lower than what they were at before this thread was created. What's worse, they will go lower.
S&P broke out of its rising channel and crossed under the eight day moving average for the first this year. Boom boom bang bang. 1500 next stop.
S&P broke out of its rising channel and crossed under the eight day moving average for the first this year. Boom boom bang bang. 1500 next stop.
do you think we will go to 2008 levels again?
I certainly see NO REASON for the markets to be where they are. Except all the fake money being printed and the usual Fed intervention
"Government buying stocks" won't work.
Basic economics is hard to grasp, and not even our policy makers understand it. That's why you hear these weird ideas once in awhile.
Some of you are just having a hard time accepting the market is currently kicking ass.
The market indexes have always been a great indicator of the economy.
This bull market is real. Pile in!
Basic economics is hard to grasp, and not even our policy makers understand it. That's why you hear these weird ideas once in awhile.
Some of you are just having a hard time accepting the market is currently kicking ass.
The market indexes have always been a great indicator of the economy.
This bull market is real. Pile in!
From Zerohedge:
The last time the Dow was here:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+
VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
USDJPY: Then 117; Now 93
EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares
The Last Time The Dow Was Here... | Zero Hedge
The last time the Dow was here:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+
VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
USDJPY: Then 117; Now 93
EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares
The Last Time The Dow Was Here... | Zero Hedge
Yep, markets are looking strong right now! The pullback that we did see the prior weeks I called pretty well. S&P went from 1530 to 1485 during that time frame, but now we are past that top sitting at 1540. Very nice. The good news is that we can actually end up rallying higher from this point by the end of next week.
Those numbers seem to suggest that markets should be going down. But it's not.
Sure the numbers are ugly, but do they serve as a reliable indication of where the stock market is going? These numbers have been crap for a long time in bull and bear markets.
We've had an amazing run. The markets are above 2008 highs and investors are getting jitters. I see a period of consolidation ahead, and the markets will be range bound going into summer. After summer, you'll see the greatest bull market in history.
I like zerohedge, some good info, but they're just like us ---driving traffic for Adsense monies. ;-) know what I mean?
Sure the numbers are ugly, but do they serve as a reliable indication of where the stock market is going? These numbers have been crap for a long time in bull and bear markets.
We've had an amazing run. The markets are above 2008 highs and investors are getting jitters. I see a period of consolidation ahead, and the markets will be range bound going into summer. After summer, you'll see the greatest bull market in history.
I like zerohedge, some good info, but they're just like us ---driving traffic for Adsense monies. ;-) know what I mean?
The market doesn't looks so strong when you price it in gold instead of monopoly money:
S&P 500
Dow Jones Industrials
S&P 500
Dow Jones Industrials
That is exactly my opinion. I believe we will be seeing DOW Jones between 13,800 to 14,400 for the next three months before running up again.
In the last 10 days the markets have been up 8 out of the 10. I know I wouldn't be holding any positions over the weekend.
Btw, the charts still looks bullish without any serious indicator towards the downside.
I pretty much went all into equities in mid-February. Things are good right now, let's hope they continue.
It's not the US government buying stock - it's foreign governments, notably China and Japan.
In case you haven't noticed there is a currency war going on at the moment, with Japan especially determined to do whatever they have to do to hold down the Yen.
What they are doing is printing Yen like no tomorrow. Then they sell Yen in the foreign exchanges and buy dollars. This pushes the Yen down and the dollar up - so the Japanese exporters are happy.
But then they need to decide what to do with the all dollars they've bought with their printed Yen. So they are buying anything dollar denominated - US treasuries, US stocks, oil, grain, gold, real estate and so on.
Of course the stock markets rise on these purchases. But at some point someone will notice that the companies listed are not exporting as much (thanks to the strong dollar), and consumers are struggling (thanks to the price of oil being pushed up by all the purchases), and the savvier folk will sell stocks.
If the market goes down, the Japanese won't care - after all they only used printed money to finance the purchases and they achieved their goal of a weak Yen. But suckers drawn into this froth to stake real money might get burnt.
In case you haven't noticed there is a currency war going on at the moment, with Japan especially determined to do whatever they have to do to hold down the Yen.
What they are doing is printing Yen like no tomorrow. Then they sell Yen in the foreign exchanges and buy dollars. This pushes the Yen down and the dollar up - so the Japanese exporters are happy.
But then they need to decide what to do with the all dollars they've bought with their printed Yen. So they are buying anything dollar denominated - US treasuries, US stocks, oil, grain, gold, real estate and so on.
Of course the stock markets rise on these purchases. But at some point someone will notice that the companies listed are not exporting as much (thanks to the strong dollar), and consumers are struggling (thanks to the price of oil being pushed up by all the purchases), and the savvier folk will sell stocks.
If the market goes down, the Japanese won't care - after all they only used printed money to finance the purchases and they achieved their goal of a weak Yen. But suckers drawn into this froth to stake real money might get burnt.
the concept of 'fed Independence' is laughable
read any book about 2008. the fed & executive branch worked hand in hand
The DJIA is going to 16k and beyond by the end of year. Any pullback will be minimal..1-2% at most. Same for S&P 500. The fed has given no indication of ever ending QE, let alone raise rates. PE ratio of S&P still only 14.
But IMHO I would not keep any substantial amount of money in a bank or securities account, instead keep it in physical gold stored on your property or some other safe location.
But IMHO I would not keep any substantial amount of money in a bank or securities account, instead keep it in physical gold stored on your property or some other safe location.