The next gold rush

Great post.

How do you calculate vacancy when factoring it into your margins? Do you have a method of estimating it?

With 11 units * 12 months, you have 132 possible "units of vacancy". How many can your portfolio tolerate in a given year? How are you hedging your portfolio against the risk of economic downturn?

Granted I know nothing about real estate so maybe 60% is such ridiculous margin that all your black swan error rates are covered.

Going forward, we're allocating last year's gross revenues towards vacancy, which stood at 3.8% in 2014 for our company.

We also calculate total days of revenue lost due to not having a tenant (This is after we attempt to recover $$$ from the tenant). We expect this year to be much better than last year due to how prolific our website & Facebook page are becoming in terms of marketing tools. Due to facebook, we have roughly 50 people in line wanting to see our next property under rehab. Another property we have under rehab was rented out 2-3 weeks ago due to the persistent asking of a very well qualified tenant to allow her to pre-pay for the rental prior to completion of rehab.

Here's the actual financials for one of our duplexes.

Purchase price : $30,000
Rehab costs : ~$10,000
Total cost : $40,000

Monthly gross income : $525/unit * 2 units = $1050/mo


Monthly expenses :
Insurance $86.74
Taxes $79.42
Repair allowance $157.5
Vacancy allowance $39.90

Monthly net operating income : $686.44
Margin : 65.3%
Unlevered cash ROI : 20.6%


New market value due to repairs : ~$55,000

So, we've got a cash ROI of 20.6% plus gained equity of 37.5% over our total investment. The best part of the deal is that $525/unit is actually well under the market median which is in the $550-$600 range and steadily increasing. Rather than maximize income, our preference is to undercut the market and build a solid brand that underprices and overprovides on quality. So far it's working out very well for us.


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The bar is so low to qualify for "Accredited Investor" anyhow. They make you qualify for a reason, they don't want people blowing their entire life savings on a single investment.

I would be concerned with the amount of headache involved with pooling together $10k from a couple hundred peasants. Good luck finding time to actually run your company.

$250k/yr personal income, $300k/yr of household income or net worth of over $1m seems kind of high to me.

It's pretty easy to manage a few hundred investors with the proper software and secondary markets.

I was referring to the amount of headache you would have dealing with the amount of questions and concerns you would receive from such a large group of unsophisticated investors.



Slack
 


I really like the concept of crowd funding to buy properties. I want to implement the same in my own country with the land prices sky rocketing. Getting together people who have money to invest in properties which they can't alone afford is quite interesting. Although the land price to rent ratio quiet low. I'm pretty sure the real estate prices are artificially inflated.

My question is this, with this people who invest, what are their conditions to invest? Are they expecting some amount of return per month? Do they say the return is too low? How do you negotiate with them that what they are doing is fine.

Crowd funding to buy big properties is quite fascinating concept! Opens to door to so many other properties which alone will be difficult to buy.
 
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I really like the concept of crowd funding to buy properties. I want to implement the same in my own country with the land prices sky rocketing. Getting together people who have money to invest in properties which they can't alone afford is quite interesting. Although the land price to rent ratio quiet low. I'm pretty sure the real estate prices are artificially inflated.

My question is this, with this people who invest, what are their conditions to invest? Are they expecting some amount of return per month? Do they say the return is too low? How do you negotiate with them that what they are doing is fine.

Crowd funding to buy big properties is quite fascinating concept! Opens to door to so many other properties which alone will be difficult to buy.

RealtyShares was mentioned earlier, you can see the site and see what's being offered.

In my case we've sold preferred shares in the company, so investors get a cut of whatever we earn profitwise after expenses. We'd LIKE to issue exchange traded debt in the future as an alternative to bank loans, so we can scale beyond what investment banks would give us.
 
Here's the actual financials for one of our duplexes.

Purchase price : $30,000
Rehab costs : ~$10,000
Total cost : $40,000

Monthly gross income : $525/unit * 2 units = $1050/mo


Monthly expenses :
Insurance $86.74
Taxes $79.42
Repair allowance $157.5
Vacancy allowance $39.90

Monthly net operating income : $686.44
Margin : 65.3%
Unlevered cash ROI : 20.6%


New market value due to repairs : ~$55,000

So, we've got a cash ROI of 20.6% plus gained equity of 37.5% over our total investment.

I congratulate you on taking action and following through with your plan. It is not a common trait.

I did not see a "Property Management" allocation in the above calculations, I am sure you have addressed somehow, just thinking that it should be included in any discussion of returns.

I know this is a casual forum, but maybe a disclaimer in your sig would be prudent as a precaution.
 
I congratulate you on taking action and following through with your plan. It is not a common trait.

I did not see a "Property Management" allocation in the above calculations, I am sure you have addressed somehow, just thinking that it should be included in any discussion of returns.

I know this is a casual forum, but maybe a disclaimer in your sig would be prudent as a precaution.

As for the sig, i'm not looking for investment and just blogging about what we're doing.

At the moment I'm managing everything. I spend maybe 5-10 hours a month doing management, the rest of the time is spent on improving workflows , scalability, dealing with investors and trying to grow the company (Which means shilling for money usually).
 
As for the sig, i'm not looking for investment and just blogging about what we're doing.

At the moment I'm managing everything. I spend maybe 5-10 hours a month doing management, the rest of the time is spent on improving workflows , scalability, dealing with investors and trying to grow the company (Which means shilling for money usually).

I understand your view on the sig, just trying to help. I would imagine that our resident WF attorney's would say the same thing. I have had a good friend who ran a fund get torn apart by investors, though he never did anything wrong. Once there is any trouble, there are always investors who will angle to take the fund from you. Saw this happen with a home builder back in 2003 also. At a minimum, I would encourage you, if you do not have it already, to have an attorney fees clause in your contract. That way member initiated litigation is at their own expense.

I just do not want to see you run into a problem years from now. Like I said, I applaud you on your follow through.

As for the cost of management, I was tasked with analyzing portfolios for a few years for a few funds that were very active in buying rental home portfolios for future securitization. Ironically, at the time, they refused to look at the portfolio's of homes like the ones you are buying. I looked for money at the time to buy the portfolios like yours for myself, but failed. There are actually quite a few angles to profit from the sub $75K market, but many are afraid to touch it.

One of the biggest mistakes I had to repeatedly note in my analysis of these portfolios, was the lack of allocation for management expense. (this and low set asides for maintenance).

Anyhow, I am enjoying watching your (ad)venture. It is admirable, many think of doing things, few actually do it.
 
I know a few people that own properties in So cal, duplex and triplex's, they invested ages ago when it was dirt cheap, but what you are doing is major props, you are right about getting bank loans when you are starting out, and they are hesitant giving it up like that, either way, amazing journey man
 
When I lived there (1 hr east NE of Columbus) you could buy houses for $35k that rented all day long for ~$550/mo on section 8.

They didn't really go up in value over the past 30 years in the area I was in, but rent is 2x mortgage on single family and twice that on a 4 plex.

The largest landlord in my local assoc had 380 units, with over 100 single family units. He still worked as an exec at the power plant, he said to max out his retirement. He was in his 40's and had a couple employees to handle the eviction/rental side of it.

I still have a shack 1 hour east of Columbus in zville I've rented out for 12+ years now.


This $17k would rent for $500 easy (not bad area) with paint+carpet+drywall repair: 1103 Ohio St, Zanesville, OH 43701 - Home For Sale and Real Estate Listing - realtor.com® Not 2 blocks from my shack, mostly old people in the neighborhood.


5bdrm 2 bath $25k
1182 Wheeling Ave, Zanesville, OH 43701 - Home For Sale and Real Estate Listing - realtor.com®
 
When I lived there (1 hr east NE of Columbus) you could buy houses for $35k that rented all day long for ~$550/mo on section 8.

They didn't really go up in value over the past 30 years in the area I was in, but rent is 2x mortgage on single family and twice that on a 4 plex.

The largest landlord in my local assoc had 380 units, with over 100 single family units. He still worked as an exec at the power plant, he said to max out his retirement. He was in his 40's and had a couple employees to handle the eviction/rental side of it.

I still have a shack 1 hour east of Columbus in zville I've rented out for 12+ years now.


This $17k would rent for $500 easy (not bad area) with paint+carpet+drywall repair: 1103 Ohio St, Zanesville, OH 43701 - Home For Sale and Real Estate Listing - realtor.com® Not 2 blocks from my shack, mostly old people in the neighborhood.


5bdrm 2 bath $25k
1182 Wheeling Ave, Zanesville, OH 43701 - Home For Sale and Real Estate Listing - realtor.com®

There's a few guys in Zville and Cambridge that are in the 50-150 unit area and do extraordinarily well. One guy uses all his crap properties as leverage to buy the 'nice' ones that appreciate.

The low end ones DO appreciate if you time the market (Which is hard to do, but not impossible). Going back to 2003, some of my $25k houses were selling for $60k-$80k. If we ran into another bubble we could see the prices at least go back to where they once were and I could see my property values rise 40%-70% or so.

As for management fees, I figure it'll take employees to help handle them once we're around 60-75 units. Right now I PERSONALLY spend around 10 hours a month managing our 18 units. If I spent 80hrs/mo on it personally, i'd be able to then handle nearly 150 units myself. I have no clue how it will scale but it's hard to say at this point.

My HOPE is that when we need management I can hire part time managers around the $25k-$35k/yr area on salary and for them to take on another 100 units each. It'll certainly hurt our bottom line, but so far I'm very, very efficient due to software and other modern convinces, alot of landlords don't have what I do.

For repair escrow, it's my feeling that MOST landlords don't save much for them, and that leads to severe problems (Mostly undermaintained properties leading to crappy tenants leading to high turnover which leads to low margins per property which then causes the whole thing to snowball).

FNMA's calculation is 20% of gross rents per month set aside for repairs then another 5% for vacancies. We currently set aside 15% as repair escrow and 3.8% as vacancy. Unlike virtually all landlords we know of, we go in and in many cases completely gut and renovate our rental properties. Anything we feel that has a good chance of breaking down in the next 3-4 years we replace at the time of purchase/rehab. Last year our actual cost on maintenance was around 5.8%, so for the time being we're saving back nearly triple our actual expense on repairs. This year so far, even with the terrible weather has been still around 5% of gross rents going to repairs.

Additionally we've got some other things to reduce repair costs - I spend my time finding ways/methods to find whatever we're using cheaper. Like for furnaces, I actually found the company who private labels all sorts of furnaces for local HVAC companies. I can get a high quality, 96.6% furnace with a 60kbtu output (Which is what goes in almost all our houses) for under $900 after taxes, and the other things needed to get it running. I also can get the furnace installed for around $200 with the contractors I have working for me. If I went to a normal HVAC company, it would run me nearly $2,5000 installed for the exact same furnace as a private label version. We've replaced something like 5 furnaces in the last year for a grand total of $5,500. If I was to get the exact same thing done with a outside contractor (Like almost all landlords I know do) it would have been nearly $10,000.

My next big thing is wholesale plumbing. We've switched from PVC which most are using to PEX which can be bought in obscenely high amounts with massive savings. It's already half the price of PVC with higher reliability, but we're taking it a step further and buying our fittings in thousand unit contractor packs. The cost is going to be around $2k-$3k to do, but we'll have enough plumbing supplies to rehab over 50 houses, and to ongoing maintenance on all our properties for something like 10 years. When we started out, we were paying normal retail prices by going to the local menards/HD/Lowes and buying them. By buying in bulk our supply cost will be extraordinarily less.
 
Yeah man, even the $20k properties with some paint are worth $40k+ on paper to the bank when getting a mortgage.

I bought a house for $20k with credit card checks, fixed it up and then it was cake to get a first mortgage from the bank for $40k. And it still cash flowed on a 20 yr mortgage.

I wouldn't even bother trying to time the market, just keep them and leverage them for more units as they get paid down.

The guy with 380 units started with shacks, then grouped a dozen that were paid off for a big heloc and started paying cash for new units that were nice, then leverage them and buy more. He has a range from slum to executive rentals and commercial.

When you have the cash to buy em outright you get better deals on the buying end and have a lot of options when going to the bank having hard collateral.

I had best luck with a "Savings and loan" bank, they said they'd finance all the $50k or under properties I had 20% to put down, when I was 18.
 
Houses in the US go for as little as $20 - $25k? Really?

I can't even get a decent house for that, and I'm in Thailand. I'm looking at least $70k for something liveable.
 
The bar is so low to qualify for "Accredited Investor" anyhow. They make you qualify for a reason, they don't want people blowing their entire life savings on a single investment.
This is interesting.

Today's standard for accredited investors was set, I believe, in the early 80s and has not budged since. As the SEC commissioners were ratifying the provisions of the JOBS Act it was widely believed that a new definition of an accredited investor would be established as a concession to the progressives (and not an unreasonable one, in my opinion) - but they were not.

That said, in many instances it doesn't matter. Private pools of capital tend to not want smaller investors, grouped or otherwise. Just imagine running a hedge fund and some dick is calling you 3 times a week worried about his $50,000 stake. Now imagine 1,000 of them pooled to make a fund with $50 million AUM. Even a cash-strapped Madoff wouldn't bother.
 
Yeah man, even the $20k properties with some paint are worth $40k+ on paper to the bank when getting a mortgage.

I bought a house for $20k with credit card checks, fixed it up and then it was cake to get a first mortgage from the bank for $40k. And it still cash flowed on a 20 yr mortgage.

I wouldn't even bother trying to time the market, just keep them and leverage them for more units as they get paid down.

The guy with 380 units started with shacks, then grouped a dozen that were paid off for a big heloc and started paying cash for new units that were nice, then leverage them and buy more. He has a range from slum to executive rentals and commercial.

When you have the cash to buy em outright you get better deals on the buying end and have a lot of options when going to the bank having hard collateral.

I had best luck with a "Savings and loan" bank, they said they'd finance all the $50k or under properties I had 20% to put down, when I was 18.

I'm unsure if things have changed (Prior to 2008 i could get refinances without even thinking about it). Now they want 20%-30% down and are telling me I can't finance more than maybe 4-5 per year which is why we're wanting to go the A+/SEC route, as then we'd be able to issue debt or sell more shares in the company to finance more properties while we build longer history to show the banks.