The next internet bust?

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I haven't read it yet, I'll update this post when I do, but I would say John Dvorak doesn't know what he is talking about when it comes to IM...

Update: I do believe history repeats itself and I also believe he's talking shit. Web 2.0 isn't going to bust.
 
I read the article. I don't doubt shakeouts will occur in the industry, as is normal in any high-growth industry that is rapidly innovating and evolving, but as far as another "dot-com bust" I'm still not convinced there was a first bust. There was a shakeout, and the strong survived. The business world is just like an ecosystem - it has inside and outside factors that affect its stability and the "survival of the fittest" rule is in full effect.
 
I think the only bust will be all the idiots that threw social networks up and saturated the market trying to be the next MySpace. Especially the ones that spent tons of VC money by advertising all over the place.
 
BlondeTM said:
I think the only bust will be all the idiots that threw social networks up and saturated the market trying to be the next MySpace. Especially the ones that spent tons of VC money by advertising all over the place.
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Those are the only people who can go bust, the rest are making real money off of advertisements, and in turn the advertisers are making money off of them.

Question - how does an industry go bust when everyone involved is making money?

It doesn't.

This guy is a shill who gets his kicks from writing crap about things he doesn't understand.
 
Writers like this guy get under my skin. He said absolutely nothing substantial. Nothing concrete. But he gave the illusion that he did.

His closing comment is a prime example:

"You can come up with your own theories about the next collapse. Your guess as to the cause will be as good as mine. All I can tell you is that it's a sure thing."

He alluded to several online-based industries that could go bust but never made a prediction for any particular industry. He only cited a few examples of what that industry could possibly be.

Of COURSE there will be another "bust." Every business and every economic trend cycles. It's just the law of the land. There is always a breaking point with substantial growth and then the market corrects itself. His argument is just about as astute as someone saying, "Google is popular!" or "WickedFire is a gay forum." Every idiot on the planet already knows it. It's a no-brainer.

However, the "genius" behind an article like this is that when this bust does happen, no matter what it is or when it takes place, this guy can point to this article and say, "See? I told you so!" and actually gain the appearance of having some credibility about the market.
 
Poor attempt at link bait. Boooooo!

Had he warned that VCs are madly investing at a pre-bust rate, then he may have been onto something. But everything he mentioned - video, social applications, etc. - imo, demonstrates the evolution of how we use the web. Sure it'll keep changing, but it's not going anywhere.
 
I just don't see that, even though VC's are once again gambling and investing in the web again, they are seeming to be more careful, back in 99-00 you could walk in to a VC with an "idea" and if you had the right attitude and knew the right people you would get funded with millions.

This is no longer the case, good luck showing up in shorts and flip-flops to a meeting with a VC firm and without a business plan that has been professionally done and looked over.
 
Ha! Classic conspiracy theorist.

I tell you it's going to happen! Be it next year or in a hundred years it will and when it does I told you so!

You can come up with your own theories about the next collapse. Your guess as to the cause will be as good as mine. All I can tell you is that it's a sure thing.
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BlondeTM said:
I think the only bust will be all the idiots that threw social networks up and saturated the market trying to be the next MySpace. Especially the ones that spent tons of VC money by advertising all over the place.
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Exactly. This is the part I agree with.
 
I kinda hope so because Im so sick of seeing so many new tools and the word 'widgets'. Ive never utilized widgets just because I run Windows and never downloaded Yahoo's windows software. But, because Im so sick of the damn word Ill never use them (excluding in wordpress).

Im sick of seeing web designs that are 'cool' and 'hip' with lots of space, big fonts, and rich colors, and gradients. Also, Im sick of seeing companies try to act cool or have some unique stance. Advertising with shit talking and/or simplistic messages is overrated. Apple is the only person, in my book, permitted to go the simplistic message route. Stop trying to copy them. Enough already.

Also, I dont want to read peoples 'hip' explanation of things. Get your shit together and stop sounding like a high, half-retarded 20 year old college student on your company's website and copy and act like a business professional. This applies to the big people of 'web 2.0' crowd.

Call me crazy but Im ready to go back to the old days where things were more 'normal'. Designs were more precise back then and I didnt have to sort through everybodys trendy bullshit designs to find what I was looking for to begin with.

/rant
 
The first sentence is complete bullshit...

Every single person working in the media today who experienced the dot-com bubble in 1999 to 2000 believes that we are going through the exact same process and can expect the exact same results—a bust. It's déjà vu all over again.
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Web 2.0 today is nothing like what went on in 1999-2000. The money being thrown around (and stupid ideas) was ridiculous back then. Of course there will be some businesses folding but it will not get to the same level as the bubble years. The VC's will cut their losses much sooner this time around.

Guess he couldn't think up an original topic for his slot. This is just shitty link-bait.
 
krazyjosh5 said:
Call me crazy but Im ready to go back to the old days where things were more 'normal'. Designs were more precise back then and I didnt have to sort through everybodys trendy bullshit designs to find what I was looking for to begin with.

/rant
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Actually, I prefer the 2.0 designs of today. I guess you don't remember all the flash based intro crap every designer used back then.
 
In the first internet boom there was very few sustainable business models. Even Google back then was not sustainable until they discovered Adwords from Sprinks and Overture.

Yahoo back then was worth more than General Electric and Yahoo had never, repeat never made a profit.

There is at least some consideration of profit now. And I feel like the widespead broadband, video, and mobile stuff is just starting in the last year or so.
 
pocketrockets said:
Actually, I prefer the 2.0 designs of today. I guess you don't remember all the flash based intro crap every designer used back then.
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Yeah that was pretty fuckin annoying. Id hope that if they were to adopt the old designs again theyd be smart enough not to do that again.
 
krazyjosh5 said:
Also, Im sick of seeing companies try to act cool or have some unique stance. Advertising with shit talking and/or simplistic messages is overrated. Apple is the only person, in my book, permitted to go the simplistic message route. Stop trying to copy them. Enough already.
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So because Apple's acting cool has actually sold products it's ok?

Apple are kings of the acting cool marketing spin... granted macs generally are good machines.. but the iPod, iPhone? They are bought as fashion accessories, not because they are the best products available.
 
LazyHippy said:
Apple are kings of the acting cool marketing spin... granted macs generally are good machines.. but the iPod, iPhone? They are bought as fashion accessories, not because they are the best products available.
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Yes, precisely. I cant stand other people trying to advertise in the same way and just sucking at it. It ruins my appreciation for minimalistic advertising a little more every time.
 
LazyHippy said:
So because Apple's acting cool has actually sold products it's ok?

Apple are kings of the acting cool marketing spin... granted macs generally are good machines.. but the iPod, iPhone? They are bought as fashion accessories, not because they are the best products available.
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I really think the ipod shuffle 2.0 is the best tiny mp3 player out there. I dont know how they got a battery, flash memory, and a audio player into something that small. And I have never ran out of a battery if I charged it the night before. Great for jogging and exercising!
 
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