I'm pretty confident at this point that at least one state will pass full legalization in 2012, either California, Washington (not very likely IMO), or Colorado. Also heard good things coming out of Michigan, Oregon and Massachusetts even.
Honestly if the feds would have left a lot of these areas alone, California would probably vote NO in another close decision, just because the growers/dispensary industry people WERE fairly comfortable and BANKING. Therefore they did not want to open the floodgates of uncertainty with the whole medical/recreational distribution, lose their exclusivity in certain cities, etc.
They voted heavily AGAINST prop 19 in 2010 for this reason. Now, it is kinda funny because the raids keep happening (not just to the ultra shady places that deserved it, but over ridiculous zoning issues etc), they are hearing the schedule 2 issue in the supreme court, lots of counties are enacting outright bans, lots of city referendums have been circulated and petitions voted on, etc.
Basically things are not looking quite as peachy as the medical mj industry people envisioned it would back in 2010, even with all the cash they are bringing in. The industry is just not 100% stable as is, people are paranoid (hehehe) and I think THIS will actually push these industry people to vote for full legalization, thus adding a few percentage points and shifting the close vote to a YES in 2012.
If the US Government really didn't want California to legalize recreational in the 2012 election, they should have left the medical model alone the last few years. Regardless, I can only imagine the clusterfuckle that will ensue and the national dialog that will HAVE to come out of all this once a state does pass.
The REALLY depressing thing is that it is 20-freaking-12 and we still have to even "debate" this issue. The drug rehab industry stands to lose A LOT...imagine all of those "counselors" out of work, because they can't tell little johnny he is going to go on to smoke crack because he enjoys cannabis.