Here are the simple facts fuck stick, I really didn't want to waste my time writing this but so be it.
Let's start by talking team vs team:
Regular Season Standings (Offense):
Packers
Points Scored: 24.2 avg (10th)
Yards: 358.1 avg (9th)
Pass Yrds: 257.8 avg (5th)
Rush Yrds: 100.4 (24th) And we don't have a running game
Bears
Points Scored: 20.9 avg (21st)
Yards: 289.4 avg (30th)
Pass Yrds: 188.4 avg (28th) Go Cutler go!
Rush Yrds: 101.0 (22nd) Which you didn't beat us in until the last game of the season
Regular Season Standings (Defense):
Packers
Points Scored: 15 avg (2nd)
Yards: 309.1 avg (5th)
Pass Yrds: 194.2 avg (5th)
Rush Yrds: 114.9 (18th)
Bears
Points Scored: 17.9 avg (4th)
Yards: 314.3 avg (9th)
Pass Yrds: 224.2 avg (20th)
Rush Yrds: 90.1 (2nd) Good thing we don't depend on our run game to win games
Without really diving hard into the stats, because that's going to take forever I'll touch on the generics.
The Packers (regular season) had more total First Downs (312 vs 263), converted better on Third Down (41.4% vs 32.8%), had more Total Offensive Yards (5730 vs 4631), had more Sacks (47 vs 34), controlled the clock better (32:01 vs 29:30), and had a better Turnover Differential (+10 vs +4).
Now let's talk QB's because for some reason or another people are ready to somewhat crown Cutlers ass, for no apparent reason. HE STILL SUCKS ASS.
Cutler (regular season) 23 TD's 16 INT's 86.3 QB rating (ranked 16th). 5 games where he failed to throw a TD (33.3% 5/15) one of which was against the last game against the Packers. I think one of those in fairness was when he got knocked out with a concussion. He also had 1 rushing TD, so for him to have 2 in the playoffs against a awful Seahawks team that shouldn't have been there in the first place doesn't speak volumes about him as a runner. I still find it hilarious the game against WAS where he threw 4 picks to the SAME guy, then in his presser after says that he'd keep throwing it his way every time. The dude is straight LO Fucking L.
Rodgers (regular season) 28 TD's 11 INT 101.2 (ranked 3rd ). 2 games where he failed to throw a TD, one was when he got knocked out with a concussion against Detroit. 4 rushing TD's and is ranked #2 in the league for running as a QB only behind Vick. Although it's hard to really quantify post season stats VS Cutler because the Bears haven't played anyone that you could quantify his results from, Rodgers has 6 passing TD's and one Rushing TD.
The Packers are red hot. Having won their last 4 games all MUST WIN. They are dialed in and blew out 2 good teams in those 4 games when it mattered the most. James Starks bring a much need run balance. Awesome against the Eagles and meraly OK against Atlanta, but why run it when you can carve up the secondary? The Packers can attack any part of the field, and have the ability to go for the long ball consistently. They constantly try to run only to setup play action. Every one of the six losses this season where decided by 4 points or less and they can hang with anyone. They play a heavily mixed up 3-4 scheme on defense and can blitz from anywhere. Clay Mathews has become such a threat that defenses are constantly too worried about him and someone else comes in and gets the sack.
The Bears snuck into a #2 seed. It really seemed like they just got the breaks when it mattered, but that's just football. The come off a buy week and beat a crappy Seahawks team. For having better running backs, their running game isn't that good. Cutler is flappable if we can get pressure on him. They play a relatively unimaginative cover 2 scheme on defense. The Bears didn't find good offensive success until after the buy week when they started focusing on quick short passes. That's their game, and we know it. Cutler just isn't that good going down field. Yes he went long last week but against what was a game against a poor defense.
Keys to the game:
Packers need to stick with the run to setup the pass, but can unload into 4 wide sets when the going get's tough. They need to keep Hester in check and not allow a big return. They need to get pressure on Cutler to keep him off balance and force the bad mistakes he's bound to make. If the Packers can shut down the Bears run game I'd say it's over.
Bears need to watch the deep part of the field, Rodgers can and will throw the long ball. Cutler needs to step it up on 3rd down and move the chains in tough spots. Also unlike Atlanta when you get penetration you need to make the sack.
Let the games begin fuckers Bears are going DOWN!
