Sales stop at the 15th of every month..? What retarded shit is this?

Rotalihinna

Rotalihinna

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Apr 15, 2011
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For a couple of months now I've been operating a dropshipping site, selling jewelry. Doing some advertising and actually the returns have been pretty fucking good...

... except on every month, sales stop completely on the 15th and nobody buys anything until some time between the 19th and 21st. Seriously. Until the 15th I sell anywhere between 1-3 items a day but on the 15th it all stops.

And this is the FOURTH month this is happening. Every month it's the same. It stops on the 15th and nothing happens until the 20th.

I'm looking at Analytics and nothing really changes in those dates either. Number of visitors, sessions, pages/user, bounce rate etc. are all the same. But nobody buys anything. I'm going fucking crazy over this. Any ideas?
 


On the 15th, tell them you'll be shutting down the store forever, it's their last chance to buy anything from you...

No, don't really say that. My point is, add some urgency, you know, some kind of a push toward making some sales...

Or even just do a sale? ... You should really be trying to build a list, do you have a list? Another way to try to make sales, create an entertaining newsletter that mails on the 15th...

There's really so many ways, are you doing anything in terms of your marketing / promotion?
 
marketer23 said:
i get 1 sale a day from 1-15th then 0 sales from 15th-20.

OMG GUYZ HELP ME OUT
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dude statistically it's extremely improbable that it's just coincidence. I average 2.2 sales a day for every other day. And on the 15th it just stops. FOUR MONTHS in a row.
 
Rotalihinna said:
dude statistically it's extremely improbable that it's just coincidence. I average 2.2 sales a day for every other day. And on the 15th it just stops. FOUR MONTHS in a row.
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You don't have enough sales to make that conclusion. I think if you has 100 sales a day and on the 15th it dropped to 10, for 4 months in a row, you'd have a case.
 
Rotalihinna said:
dude statistically it's extremely improbable that it's just coincidence. I average 2.2 sales a day for every other day. And on the 15th it just stops. FOUR MONTHS in a row.
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2.2 sales a day. you need a bigger sample size unless you're selling a high-end product with insane margins.

Start marketing and figuring out how to increase sales instead of worrying about 5 days a month where you get no sales.
 
robbie222 said:
You don't have enough sales to make that conclusion. I think if you has 100 sales a day and on the 15th it dropped to 10, for 4 months in a row, you'd have a case.
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For other days the probability of making a sale is near 92%... making zero sales 5 days in a row, starting at the exact date every month, 4 months in a row - I think that's enough sales info to make the conclusion that there must be something beyond mere coincidence.
 
marketer23 said:
2.2 sales a day. you need a bigger sample size unless you're selling a high-end product with insane margins.

Start marketing and figuring out how to increase sales instead of worrying about 5 days a month where you get no sales.
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The margins are good, the products are mid-priced - if I had 2.2 sales every day, this website alone would make an OK living for most places in the US.

But that's not the matter, this is not my only site anyway. The thing is, I don't think this could be coincidence. I need to understand what's happening.

So did anyone ever encounter something similar to this?
 
Maybe there's some sort of pixel discrepancy happening for those few days?

I agree that it doesn't seem statistically significant, but 4 months in a row is becoming a trend.

Keep up posted, and maybe try a test lead on the 15th (if possible)?
 
Rotalihinna said:
For other days the probability of making a sale is near 92%... making zero sales 5 days in a row, starting at the exact date every month, 4 months in a row - I think that's enough sales info to make the conclusion that there must be something beyond mere coincidence.
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There's your problem.
 
Rotalihinna said:
you don't think this is enough data to make the conclusion that it's statistically improbable for this to happen?
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No, it's not enough data. If you really want to go with the "statistically improbable" route, you should know a sample size of 100,000 is not even enough, statistically.

Let's cut to the chase, If you had 100 sales a day, then it dropped off to 10 on the 15, THEN you can say something is up.

At most you have a weak 'coincidence'.
 
Op, what do you think is happening? Fraud of some sort? It appears as though you have a suspicion. What is it?
 
retraCC said:
No, it's not enough data. If you really want to go with the "statistically improbable" route, you should know a sample size of 100,000 is not even enough, statistically.

Let's cut to the chase, If you had 100 sales a day, then it dropped off to 10 on the 15, THEN you can say something is up.

At most you have a weak 'coincidence'.
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This simply can't be only a 'weak' coincidence.

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Notice how it drops to flat out zero at the 15th. Every month. For a couple of days. And nearly every day that I've failed to make a sale falls into those 4-6 day blocks.

There are only 2 sale-less days (out of 106) that aren't in those blocks.
 
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