Sales stop at the 15th of every month..? What retarded shit is this?

[Rotalihinna]

Op, what do you think is happening? Fraud of some sort? It appears as though you have a suspicion. What is it?

Dude, I wish I knew. I had several theories but I've ruled out every single one of them, including possible problems with the CC processor/paypal integration on the site.

User interaction wise everything stays the same. Number of visitors/bounce rates/pages viewed/viewing patterns etc. are all normal. I've been checking competing websites and nothing seems unusual.

 

[Clay More]

I'd agree statistical samples aren't large enough for true analysis.
The only thing that stands out to me is home loan payments. Normally due on the first of the month, considered late after the 15th.

If there was some correlation between your marketing and homeowners that were just making everything work, then maybe a possibility.
Long shot though.
Best of luck figuring it out.

 

[brandonbaker]

My sales also dip on weekends, which accounts for 3 out of 4 on your graph above. Show me your traffic.

 

[Rotalihinna]

I'd agree statistical samples aren't large enough for true analysis.
The only thing that stands out to me is home loan payments. Normally due on the first of the month, considered late after the 15th.

If there was some correlation between your marketing and homeowners that were just making everything work, then maybe a possibility.
Long shot though.
Best of luck figuring it out.

Hmm. The marketing I do doesn't strike me as something that would be relevant to homeowners etc., but it's a kind of payment that most people make, so maybe there's something there?

My sales also dip on weekends, which accounts for 3 out of 4 on your graph above. Show me your traffic.

Well since those no-sales blocks are 4 to 6 days some days are obv. gonna fall into the weekends.

The traffic is steady throughout.

 

[bluechinagroup]

OP you really need to take a Introduction to Probability and Statistics class. Like others have stated, this is a weak coincidence at best. That sample size is peasant level, and you do not have enough data for a statistically significant result.

Our brains are geared towards recognizing patterns, and clearly your brain is sperging out over 4 months of sales gaps. You remind me of the guys on at the roulette table who swear they figured out a pattern, even though each spin is independent and there's no memory of the last spin.

 

[retraCC]

You need to display traffic numbers, otherwise, this is a useless conversation. You have experts in conversion optimization telling you this, yet... here we are, still no real data. If we see you have 100 visitors, we know what the problem is. If you've got a 1000, we really know there is a bigger problem, right now you are just giving us a small piece of the puzzle. What's the conversion rate?

 

[AdamC]

instead of focusing on zero sales a few days a month, why not focus on getting those 2 sales a day to a decent level.

 

[lebron]

You're focusing on the wrong thing. Let me explain:

You're in the jewelry niche which is worth billions of dollars. As of now you're getting 2 sales a day - which is likely less than 0.000000000001% market share.

Instead of trying to optimize those 2 sales, concentrate on increasing those sales. I took a graph you posted earlier and changed it to what you should be doing:

It's all 80/20. Concentrate on what matters and not on bullshit. True, you've spotted a coincidence that's intriguing, but if you were doing what you were supposed to, then you'd be getting more sales and not worrying about a statistical anomaly.

Get back to making sales.

 

[kryaa]

It's all 80/20. Concentrate on what matters and not on bullshit.

I really disagree. If he isn't making any sales for 5 days every month, that's 60 days per year or 120 sales per year. Gotta handle that shit before you scale up....otherwise you are gonna lose a buttload of money in the longrun.

 

[Josss]

instead of focusing on zero sales a few days a month, why not focus on getting those 2 sales a day to a decent level.

 

[JarredLv]

Okay, so I..might be a bit hammered here. But let me propose my theory based on my extensive experience with human nature and bullocks. All this is based on you being in the jewelry niche (

First dip, Feb 16th - Every sucker with a cock already bought their stupid engagement ring and just proposed.

March 16th - A Sunday...nobody gives a shit.

April 15thish - Once again, nobody gives a shit...wait, taxes. People can't afford anything.

May 18thish - I'm out of Vodka. Nothing important.

So there you have it. Masterfully collected data. Use it wisely.

 

[emp]

You're focusing on the wrong thing. Let me explain:

You're in the jewelry niche which is worth billions of dollars. As of now you're getting 2 sales a day - which is likely less than 0.000000000001% market share.

Instead of trying to optimize those 2 sales, concentrate on increasing those sales. I took a graph you posted earlier and changed it to what you should be doing:

It's all 80/20. Concentrate on what matters and not on bullshit. True, you've spotted a coincidence that's intriguing, but if you were doing what you were supposed to, then you'd be getting more sales and not worrying about a statistical anomaly.

Get back to making sales.

This, this, this..

So, 3 of those 4 data points are on weekends... maybe that market is shit on weekends.. oh yeah.. because people want to GIFT this stuff (jewelry) on weekends, and they SHOP for it in the office (where the wife/girl/guy can't see).

but seriously, work on getting more than 2.2 sales per day, maybe then weekends will see more sales as well.

Also, there is one more day without sales on the ...err... 1st of April, 2nd of April?

I am sure if you share more than 4 months data, we'll find more of those.

which busts your stats quite nicely.

::emp::

 

[BigWill]

What is your demo?

Payday... Most people run out of money by the 15th...

 

[Meatytreats]

What is your demo?

Payday... Most people run out of money by the 15th...

This... Say you get your check on the 15th and deposit it on the 15th/16th and it takes 3 days to clear. You are at the exact date where people start buying again.

Now, many folks have direct deposit, but that still takes 24-48 hours and if your on a weekend it takes longer.

Also, to rule out fraud/shaving/CC processor down etc, just place a dummy sale on the 15th-20th.

This may or may not be an anomaly, but either way it's certainly not something you should be spending time on.

 

[insectlife]

As a peasant who currently lives pay cheque to pay cheque my qualitative assessment is this:

1.-15th (2 weekends) - LOADED, look at me Maw, king of the world.

(3rd week of the month) = I'm broke this month!11 translation = spent a little too much money on frivolous stuff in the first half of the month. Not really broke, still have money just psychologically need to delay the gratification for a week to make myself feel better. 15th is the hump.

(4th week) - Payday is a week away...I had a thrifty week, I deserve that piece of shit jewellery*!

Cycle continues each month replacing jewellery with whatever.

*Replace jewellery with "going out" getting hammered and it's probably more accurate.

 

[ToddW]

Depending on your niche, even larger ecom stores doing 50-100 orders per-day have significant drops on the weekends. Turning the weekend into the busiest day of the week is a challenge, but it CAN be done, and it's worth it.

See, you just have a lot of room for improvement, it's a good thing.

 

[Fatbat]

This... Say you get your check on the 15th and deposit it on the 15th/16th and it takes 3 days to clear. You are at the exact date where people start buying again.

Is getting paid biweekly a common thing in the US? Because, from what I've experienced, monthly is the norm in Canada and Europe.

 

[Joshk]

Is getting paid biweekly a common thing in the US? Because, from what I've experienced, monthly is the norm in Canada and Europe.

It is very common to get paid every two weeks.

 

[Rotalihinna]

Thanks a lot for putting things into perspective, guys. Also prepare for megapost

OP you really need to take a Introduction to Probability and Statistics class. Like others have stated, this is a weak coincidence at best. That sample size is peasant level, and you do not have enough data for a statistically significant result.

Our brains are geared towards recognizing patterns, and clearly your brain is sperging out over 4 months of sales gaps. You remind me of the guys on at the roulette table who swear they figured out a pattern, even though each spin is independent and there's no memory of the last spin.

I took two stats classes in college and they were fun, and then I took Statistical Thermodynamics and to this day I wanna kill myself

You need to display traffic numbers, otherwise, this is a useless conversation. You have experts in conversion optimization telling you this, yet... here we are, still no real data. If we see you have 100 visitors, we know what the problem is. If you've got a 1000, we really know there is a bigger problem, right now you are just giving us a small piece of the puzzle. What's the conversion rate?

The conversion rate is about 2.4%, but there are so many different methods of calculating conversions. The 2.4% figure is based on unique visitors (that mostly come from advertising), not 'sessions' like in Analytics.

As of now you're getting 2 sales a day - which is likely less than 0.000000000001% market share.

I'm pretty sure the jewelry industry doesn't make 200,000,000,000,000 sales a day

It's all 80/20. Concentrate on what matters and not on bullshit. True, you've spotted a coincidence that's intriguing, but if you were doing what you were supposed to, then you'd be getting more sales and not worrying about a statistical anomaly.

Get back to making sales.

You're right about this. Of course I am working on increasing sales every day. but at the same time I want to spot what could be causing this weird occurrence, because part of my efforts of 'scaling up' will depend on this.

I really disagree. If he isn't making any sales for 5 days every month, that's 60 days per year or 120 sales per year. Gotta handle that shit before you scale up....otherwise you are gonna lose a buttload of money in the longrun.

I agree. My sales & conversions are all very good except those few days. 60 days of 'guaranteed no sales' a year would rape my business in the ass violently, especially the scaling up efforts.

This... Say you get your check on the 15th and deposit it on the 15th/16th and it takes 3 days to clear. You are at the exact date where people start buying again.

Now, many folks have direct deposit, but that still takes 24-48 hours and if your on a weekend it takes longer.

Also, to rule out fraud/shaving/CC processor down etc, just place a dummy sale on the 15th-20th.

This may or may not be an anomaly, but either way it's certainly not something you should be spending time on.

See, this makes a lot of sense. So if this is true and if the problem is that people just don't have money to buy my shit at those dates, what could be done about it? I mean, if they don't have money they don't. I guess as I scale up and see 10 sales a day instead of 2, I'll start seeing some sales after the 15th too, just less than 10

 

[ToddW]

If they don't have money they don't have money... like you said.

Maybe you need to start targeting some other demos...you know... some that don't live paycheck to paycheck. (Not sure your niche allows.)

Another option is to start offering PayPal Bill Me Later, and promoting it heavy on your site, and other 'payment plans' that are easily/integrated with your system. Again, this is going to depend on your demo but at-least you get your $, and can even out sales possibly increase.