poopie's FU trading journal
- Thread starter poopie
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What do you suggest for a retail investor with a view that S&P vol will rise?
I bought VIX call spreads in the past, only to get the timing wrong. Others have suggested buying and rolling S&P puts 10% out of the money.
Is spot VIX even a relevant metric to look at?
Also - any thoughts on how a retail guy can express a view on interest rates (aside from taking out a mortgage)?
I bought VIX call spreads in the past, only to get the timing wrong. Others have suggested buying and rolling S&P puts 10% out of the money.
Is spot VIX even a relevant metric to look at?
Also - any thoughts on how a retail guy can express a view on interest rates (aside from taking out a mortgage)?
I'm definitely not qualified to answer this question, so I will because this is da interwebz.
I day traded Forex for a couple of months (pattern trading). Turned $500 to something like $8000 (no kidding, that ROI% is higher than what MGrunin would have if he succeeded in his 10k-100k thread) before losing it all in a week.
The number one rule is that you do not stray from your plan because of a win or a loss. And that requires Iron Fucking Nerves of Mega Steel. I'm confident that 99% of people simply don't have the level of self control and calmness that being a successful trader would require.
Looking back it must have been enormous amounts of luck combined with the retarded levels of risk I was taking with the account on every trade.
So is everyone assuming this fella is a successful trader? Gave up a million bucks left in his account by a dead guy, knows a guy that made 100 million, has a pool in his backyard... Sounds like horsepoop to me.
Here's a tip guys, unless he shows at least a couple hundred trades here with a positive outcome, it doesn't prove much.
Here's a tip guys, unless he shows at least a couple hundred trades here with a positive outcome, it doesn't prove much.
Pooper! You're starting to sound just like that guy who stole my email address to score free encounters from area girls on FuckBook!
I suggest you guys read this dudes shit over at ET in the thread about McG.
Granted, there is no real way to tell 100% if he's the real deal or not, I mean, this IS the fucking Interwebz.
But I for one would like to see what he comes up with. I don't do a lot of trading, but between my 401K, Roth, & OpEx accts, I can only manage to turn around 12% year over year, and I would welcome some "edge".
So what say ye? Shall we put the baby talk & scat trolls away, and see what happens? Bo? Think you can drag on your long fucking pants for a bit and leave the retarded toilet gifs out of it?
kthxbye.
Granted, there is no real way to tell 100% if he's the real deal or not, I mean, this IS the fucking Interwebz.
But I for one would like to see what he comes up with. I don't do a lot of trading, but between my 401K, Roth, & OpEx accts, I can only manage to turn around 12% year over year, and I would welcome some "edge".
So what say ye? Shall we put the baby talk & scat trolls away, and see what happens? Bo? Think you can drag on your long fucking pants for a bit and leave the retarded toilet gifs out of it?
kthxbye.
Nobody has to believe a fucking thing I write here... but I posted my black AMEX as well as a $60MM equity run (a pic of a paper statement). Before you all go shit-nuts... it was purely in response to mGru's wager. His wager did not require proof-in-kind, but I didn't want to give him any leeway on the welch, which of course he did.
This trade is not a reco, but I did but it moments ago, larger size than what is displayed. US equties don't trade until Tuesday morning.
I will be back with the spot trade against (in short EURUSD/married touch) which would resemble a long straddle in listed vanilla terms. Long the local touch from 90/100.
This trade is not a reco, but I did but it moments ago, larger size than what is displayed. US equties don't trade until Tuesday morning.
I will be back with the spot trade against (in short EURUSD/married touch) which would resemble a long straddle in listed vanilla terms. Long the local touch from 90/100.
Getting back to the ideal state of mind we need to be in for optimum trading we need to remember that what we think we THINK we think is sometimes not exactly what is actually the reality; that is to say, what is in actuality most aforementioned, that is really perhaps not categorically definite. What I'm talking about is being in the here despite perhaps not knowing the where, which is perfectly fine.
I am naked on this touch (no hedge), but I would typically short spot at mkt. For this thread, I would simply solve for the hedge that would result in giving up half the payout. Solve for half the payout (to return 9000/10000 on a touch) ---- (1000/2). I would normally short 220K in spot.
Vanna/volga is the model used. Touches are simple touch probability adjusted by the forward (swap), based upon BS (GK for the swap).
The expectancy on this deal is terrible, but I expect a touch by tomorrow Noon my time.
Vanna/volga is the model used. Touches are simple touch probability adjusted by the forward (swap), based upon BS (GK for the swap).
The expectancy on this deal is terrible, but I expect a touch by tomorrow Noon my time.
I would typically cover against the barrier at 1.3535-40 (one sigma lower on duration).
Generally the stop would be symmetric; 24 pips to barrier on the win, and 24 pips under spot on the stop. That is fine in listed markets but entirely untenable on OTC exotics. The secondary mkt indication is too wide/too much edge loss.
The touch price is simply a monetized probability function (assuming static price on spot). The price of 9000/10000 reflects a 90% prob., of touching the barrier, 45% likelihood of closing at/above the barrier. Touch prob is 2*expiration. It differs from a standard touch prob as price moves (convexity to delta, gamma, speed).
Anyway, just assume the trade has a 90% prob of touching 1.3642.
The exotics are generally a play on variance; so you're exchanging realized for implied vola to expiration, but instead of taking a delta1 position (gain dollar for dollar in spot) in the var-swap you are expressing the trade in terms of convexity (delta and gamma).
There is no other product that has the sensitivity to Px/gamma as OTC touches and especially DNTs.
Oh well, then ignore it. It's a play on distribution. All trading involves a bias.
Nikkei Jun3 double no touch paying 69/100. This is as close to a var-swap as priced in convexity. A pure play on distribution. Priced as Cauchy and expecting lepto. My vol-figure to expiration is 400bp below mkt-pricing. IOW, it should be priced at 73/100. No hedge. Trade pays $69K/$100K ($69K debit pays $100K on no touch).
You can exploit skew in these by placing the barrier neutral (symmetric/barrier equidistant from underlying) but the skew prices the downside barrier more richly; i.e., a smaller debit/initial cost. The effect is to raise modeled-price-neutrality (60 ticks above current spot), which converges to exp. neutrality as time passes (expiration neutrality is (up barrier + down barrier)/2)
You can exploit skew in these by placing the barrier neutral (symmetric/barrier equidistant from underlying) but the skew prices the downside barrier more richly; i.e., a smaller debit/initial cost. The effect is to raise modeled-price-neutrality (60 ticks above current spot), which converges to exp. neutrality as time passes (expiration neutrality is (up barrier + down barrier)/2)