Happy Birthday Bitcoin!

OK forgive me because I'm not actually that technical, but you do realise the people we are talking about created Stuxnet etc. Pretty much unlimited resources and will at their disposal.. When you say the exchanges will be just as decentralised as bitcoin itself - could you elaborate on that at all?
The most important line of security to bitcoin is the same as the security behind bittorrent; there is no central server or company that can have guns pointed at them. Governments get everything they get through force. Bittorrent and bitcoin were uniquely designed to never be affected by force.

The weak point is of course where one trades bitcoins for fiat. Those exchanges aren't decentralized, so you can use force against them again, which is actually a threat to FIAT, not bitcoin, but it's certainly inconvenient to us for now.

The end goal will be for everyone to desire to keep bitcoins and never trade them for fiat... That'll take a while, so the intermediate goal is for an exchange or two itself to become decentralized; Which is really difficult to do because you can't trust people with your money when you don't know who they are.

...But as I said, it's in the works. At least a dozen different teams are working on doing exactly that, using mathematics & cryptography to replace the merchant somehow. It's a bit over my head too.

Whatever they come up with I'm sure uncle sam will make illegal but at the same time be completely undetectable.


Technical stuff aside, you're right - the real issue is the transferring of the funds. If this is done through a bitcoin friendly territory, then you've still got to deal with the 'issues' of the fiat system - fraud, chargebacks etc. Otherwise what, the cash ATMs (not practical in an increasingly paperless society, also overheads..)
Merchants and most transactions in general are already protected from this kind of thing by 3rd party services. Bitpay.com, who has over 10,000 bitcoin-accepting vendors, offers a wide array of protection from exactly this problem.


You gotta bare in mind hostile governments aside, there are a lot of big players out there with a lot at stake commercially - Mastercard, Visa, AmEx, PayPal etc. Don't think they want to see Bitcoin succeed :)
We're completely on the same page, they'll do something nasty to hinder bitcoin's growth, I'd bet my life on it. However, historically these companies always had exactly one weapon- Crony capitalism. (Using the guns of the state to do their dirtywork and maintain their monopolies.)

If the state is helpless to fight a decentralized foe, what can they do now? Lower their rates and compete fairly? Lol... Win/win for all in that case.

The best anyone I've read thinks that they can do is pressure/bribe legislators to move faster against the exchanges.


Not sold on the Cyprus front tho.. Argentinian peasants are one thing, but nobody moving or hiding serious capital would use bitcoin.
Give it time; they'll learn... And the process will be easier by they time big players do.

But there are already 3 institutional funds with bitcoin in their portfolios already. Since bitcoin is technically an asset class, not just another precious metal or stock, I'd say 2014 is likely the year that most other investment funds will need exposure to this class too. It's pretty unavoidable at this point.
 


At the end of the day, I feel like we should be talking about our bitcoin businesses, so we can make money off the future or the mania, whichever it is. Getting ideologically invested hurts profitability.

Sure, unless your end goal is the ideology and not the profitability..
 
Since bitcoin is technically an asset class, not just another precious metal or stock, I'd say 2014 is likely the year that most other investment funds will need exposure to this class too. It's pretty unavoidable at this point.

Can you explain this?
 
Can you explain this?
Well, the way funds are almost always managed are by adding the perceived best assets in each class to it for a diversified portfolio. This way individual investors can have 'exposure' to a little bit of everything, keeping their overall investment safe even if one whole class of assets tanks.

Until now, the primary asset classes making up a mainstream fund have been:

  1. Large-cap stocks
  2. Small-cap stocks
  3. Bonds
  4. Precious metals (Usually on paper though, too much work to move them)
  5. Any other cash equivalents they can dream up, but these don't last forever.

Other classes of assets like real estate, tax liens, municiple bonds, etc aren't uniform enough, nor widely available enough to be useful in institutional mutual funds.

The Winklevoss twins famously used their own bitcoin savings to start the first fund available to investors. An institutional fund in Cyprus was second, and about the time the 3rd investment bank offered a bitcoin fund, which is actually a popular one, the idea started spreading around that cryptocurrency is a whole new asset class, and bitcoin is the very definition of widely available...

That means it pretty much can't fail to catch on in most mutual funds as soon as bitcoin appears 'safe enough.' I'd bet 2014 is that year.

1000% a year? 3 competitors exist now? How could even the most targeted-by-bitcoin bank refuse to buy bitcoins under this pressure... Their funds would be left behind in the dust as investors move to bitcoin-bearing funds.

Of course the common fear is that these big banks at the top that run these firms like goldman sachs and morgan stanley could simply band together and just not allow bitcoin to be used internally, but that hasn't been this indication from what we see in the press:

This Novogratz guy is on the NY Fed reserve board, and spent 11 years as a goldman sachs top exec... And is bullish on bitcoins!

:cool2:
 
Bitcoin is a bubble. There, I said it.

When it pops, we all know what'll happen to you, lukep:

dduckrage.gif
 
For the doubters, there's no question. Bitcoin is going mainstream, and that's all there is to it. Like it or not, that's what will happen. Give it a few years, and it'll be just as popular as PayPal for online commerce, if not more popular. There's no stopping it now.

Bitcoin has already jumped the hurdles, so it's only a matter of time before it becomes widespread.
 
If the US (or any country) wanted to regulate it, couldn't they just block incoming wires from all of the exchanges, making it impossible to withdraw your money? Sure you'll still be able to buy stuff online with your bitcoin, but if it's banned in the US you're going to need USD to buy a house, car, pay bills, buy shit at Walmart, etc.
 
For the doubters, there's no question. Bitcoin is going mainstream, and that's all there is to it. Like it or not, that's what will happen. Give it a few years, and it'll be just as popular as PayPal for online commerce, if not more popular. There's no stopping it now.

Bitcoin has already jumped the hurdles, so it's only a matter of time before it becomes widespread.

Yes, governments will just lie down and give up their control of the monetary system. I can definitely see that.
 
Yes, governments will just lie down and give up their control of the monetary system. I can definitely see that.

They don't get a choice. What are they going to do? Start a "war on bitcoin", similar to the "war on drugs"? I'm sure that will end well.

Trend is going in favor of Bitcoin, and again, it's already jumped the necessary hurdles. There's no stopping it from becoming mainstream now. Like it or not, it's going to happen.
 
They don't get a choice. What are they going to do? Start a "war on bitcoin", similar to the "war on drugs"? I'm sure that will end well.

Trend is going in favor of Bitcoin, and again, it's already jumped the necessary hurdles. There's no stopping it from becoming mainstream now. Like it or not, it's going to happen.

Really? And what happens when governments care enough to make bitcoin illegal because it's "used by pedophiles and terrorists" and no legit merchants will accept it and no banks will process any payments? You say it's already cleared hurdles, but the government hasn't even cared enough to throw up any hurdles yet. You really think the powers behind the USD and the Euro will allow that to happen?

Someone earlier in the thread said it will be ubiquitous like PayPal, yet PayPal only exists because it works within the confines of the regulatory framework of the current monetary system. And as such it isn't a competitor to the USD (or any other nations currency). You guys are letting your excitement cloud your thinking. The only way any significant monetary replacement will work on any sort of a large scale is if the people that control the financial system (and media) allow it to. If you think otherwise you're living in a fantasy.
 
Really? And what happens when governments care enough to make bitcoin illegal because it's "used by pedophiles and terrorists" and no legit merchants will accept it and no banks will process any payments?

The success of Bitcoin relies on the populous' distrust of government and big banks, which is currently at an all time high, and doesn't appear to be trending downwards anytime soon.

I highly doubt any major government is going to make Bitcoin illegal, because it can't. The public won't back it. For example, the US was able to declare its "war on drugs", because it had the public's support due to crime, murders, destruction of families, and so on. They're not going to get that support for a "war on cryptocurrency".

Besides, the government is out of the equation on this one. It doesn't matter what they think.
 
The success of Bitcoin relies on the populous' distrust of government and big banks, which is currently at an all time high, and doesn't appear to be trending downwards anytime soon.

I highly doubt any major government is going to make Bitcoin illegal, because it can't. The public won't back it. For example, the US was able to declare its "war on drugs", because it had the public's support due to crime, murders, destruction of families, and so on. They're not going to get that support for a "war on cryptocurrency".

Besides, the government is out of the equation on this one. It doesn't matter what they think.

A lot of faulty assumptions in that post. I hope this isn't what you're relying on.
 
You guys are assuming the the public will believe what you believe, rather than what they are told to believe.

heh.

Also, why is nobody on WF transacting in bitcoin publicly (BST)?
 
You say it's already cleared hurdles, but the government hasn't even cared enough to throw up any hurdles yet. You really think the powers behind the USD and the Euro will allow that to happen?
You're out of the loop on this one; there have already been several decisions at FINCEN and the SEC about bitcoin. It's the reason we don't have US-based Exchanges nor 2-way ATMs here.

They've come down on us a little, but only because they are treating bitcoin like it's a money transfer system, of which there are already very onerous rules with the need for Huge (multi-million dollar) license fees to access.

In short, they said: "You wanna act like money? Fine. Now play by our rules for Money." -But can only attempt to regulate it at points where it is exchanged for USD.


Someone earlier in the thread said it will be ubiquitous like PayPal, yet PayPal only exists because it works within the confines of the regulatory framework of the current monetary system. And as such it isn't a competitor to the USD (or any other nations currency). You guys are letting your excitement cloud your thinking. The only way any significant monetary replacement will work on any sort of a large scale is if the people that control the financial system (and media) allow it to. If you think otherwise you're living in a fantasy.
It's not getting to the point where every grandma has a bitcoin wallet instead of a paypal account until it's been made so user-friendly and indispensable that there just isn't a sane alternative. There is nothing that the govs of the world can do to stop btc from reaching that point though; the regulatory framework issue is just a bump in the road and bitcoiners are like a platoon of Abrams tanks headed right over it. Even silicon valley investors say so outright.

When silk road got taken down btc's price recovered instantly and then shot up like a rocket because everyone knew that the threat of media badmouthing was dead. We're past that hurdle too.


The success of Bitcoin relies on the populous' distrust of government and big banks, which is currently at an all time high, and doesn't appear to be trending downwards anytime soon.
I think this is what started bitcoin and what will finish the journey, but in the middle now the popularity is going to rely on market forces; namely the fact that it's got the best features and lowest fees. This stage would have gone a lot faster if only bitcoin were more user friendly already.


Besides, the government is out of the equation on this one. It doesn't matter what they think.
I stop short of making this claim because they actually could try something stupid. Look at Obombacare... They've done dumb, unpopular things from time to time that murikans should revolt against but are too sheeply to go through with.

The thing is though; the USA is only 1 out of 200+ countries and not even the biggest. The biggest loves bitcoin so it's only a setback in american business if they do that stupid thing. Just hurts this economy and sends that wealth away from us, like so many other stupid laws here do.


You guys are assuming the the public will believe what you believe, rather than what they are told to believe.
In this instance Matt, yes. It's reasonable to conclude that this will be the case when you study the history of prohibition.

It would go exactly like the prohibition on alcohol went, but far easier to hide from the gubbmint than alcohol was. Murikan's will see that the rest of the world is using bitcoin happily and now that we're a global village everyone has friends (like you) that would be using it legally and of course more jobs would be migrating out.

There's no way that would last long. It'd likely only help bitcoin's growth because many other countries would embrace bitcoin even tighter as a way to grab the flailing american wealth on our way down the shitter!


Also, why is nobody on WF transacting in bitcoin publicly (BST)?
Use the search function; they're there.

The ones that don't should have their head examined... Zero fees and zero chance of identity theft or chargeback? Are you people nuts?