NNNNOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
- Thread starter trickykid
- Start date
I think it will split into two parties. The Christian Party and the Liberty Party. I don't think social conservatives and real conservatives can coexist much longer.
Have you seen the following article about a group called "Americans Elect"?
Kill the American Primary to Save American Politics: Ezra Klein - Bloomberg
Here's an excerpt:
Yeah, there's been TONS of speculation about Paul going 3rd-party via AE if he doesn't get the nomination in Tampa...
And I once agreed with the tactic, assuming everything is above the table with them, but I think I'm against it now after understanding more about the r3VOLutions' agenda.
First of all one should not assume that just because Paul gets the most AE votes (Which he can do without batting an eye) means that he'll be their nominee for sure. Many have pointed out that the AE laws do not clearly state the popular vote is guaranteed to be their nomination. Others have mentioned that AE has ties to George Soros, who could easily be seen as anti-Paul because of his ownership of so much of the Mainstream Media.
If this were Paul's only worry about a 3rd-party run, I wouldn't be against attempting using AE... If AE fails him then Gary Johnson on the Libertarian party ticket would likely step aside and let Paul go there... He'd just be on a few less states' ballots.
So placing Ballot access aside, there's still the issue of the new liberty movement.
If Paul were to EVER go 3rd party again, (Like he ran in 1988) he'd lose something very, very valuable for the rest of his life, and probably the rest of Rand's career too: The chance to turn the GOP into Libertarians at their Core.
Think about this scenario: Paul is the POTUS but the GOP and the DEMs are still making up congress the way they do now... How many of Paul's reforms will get passed through there?
However, if Paul takes over the GOP and libertarians push out all of these butthurt old baby boomers there now trying to cheat him from doing so, then the GOP part of congress will be his ally.
That's what Libertarians really want; although there is obviously no agreement yet that we have the numbers to do that. These next few weeks leading up to Texas and California's primaries will tell.
If Paul's momentum continues to climb like it has in the last month or so, I'd say he's not only going to win the Nomination, but He'll win the general election too, and even have a chance of filling up some congressional seats with libertarians at the same time.
If he stagnates, of course, all bets are off. But I don't see that happening...
Not only has a slew of awesome media-busting videos poured out this week that are opening everyone's minds to the fact that the MSM is lying to them, (see a few above) but Even the stuck-up, establishment-heavy Rassmussen Poll has said that Paul is the only one that can beat Obama. -Romney merely ties with Obama; Paul out-polls Obama entirely!
As more and more wake up from Obomba's lies these next few weeks we'll have a LOT of democrats announcing their support for Paul too. Paul truly wants to do all the things Obomba lied to them about 4 years ago. Only media deception has kept this fact from them until now.
That's not going to happen and deep down you know it.
Genuine libertarianism means not interfering in people's private lives at all. But the majority of the Republicans are very interfering indeed - telling people what to believe (giving atheists a hard time), telling women they shouldn't use contraception, telling gay people they shouldn't be gay, telling other countries how they should run themselves, the list goes on and on.
They are a bunch of god-botherers and you will never attract moderate voters (who just want to live a private life in peace) as long as you are saddled with them. And you won't "convert" them into not being god-botherers either. You might as well just cut em loose and start a fresh party.
No, I don't know it anymore. I used to know it. Now I have some strong doubts when I look at the size of Romney's turnouts v/s Paul's.
We're talking 10x larger on average, sometimes 100x larger on the same day.
Romney's their guy, right? They should be turning out much more if you're right. MUCH more. You'd expect their chosen "frontrunner" to be drawing several times larger crowds than "that Paul guy who hasn't even one a single state," right?
Clearly, they don't care, for one reason or another. Or maybe they have started caring about Liberty instead for a change... Either way it assures Paul gets the nomination.
There is NO solid evidence out there that this mass of people you are talking about still gives a flying fap about the GOP. At least not in 2012, when these elections I'm talking about take place.
Sure it could be theorized that in 2014 the people you're talking about will make a strong stand and elect more "establishment" GOP to go back into congress... But it could equally be theorized that once the entire USA sees how much better life is after two years of Paul in the office that more and more people will become libertarians... So that's totally unknown.
For now, I say let's give the r3VOLution a chance to take it all the way. Why handicap that beautiful vision now?
Umm - I was referring to the religious Republicans - the ones who put George W Bush ("Reagan proved deficits don't matter") into the White House and the ones who turned out for Santorum.
They are god-botherers and therefore the opposite of a "true" libertarian.
You are NEVER ever going to convert these people and stop them trying to interfere in people's lives. They live to interfere, it's their raison d'etre.
And as long as you are saddled with them, you are never going to convince Dem-leaning and independent voters that Paul is sincere about not wanting to interfere in people's private lives.
The majority of voters pretty much everywhere in the world would plump for someone who just left them alone and did the other parts of government unobtrusively (such as making sure traffic lights work and contracts are honored and the rest of it). Whoever appeals to this group can win an election.
The screaming god-botherers in the Republican party turn them off - so they will either vote Obama or stay at home on election day. And women worried about their right to use contraception will shy away from anyone with a "Republican" label. Taxes go up and down and deficits wax and wane, but a baby is for life and you don't want to risk having one just because theocrats have hijacked government.
Start a fresh party that doesn't have all the negative baggage of the Republicans. Start with capturing the governorship of a state - prove that life has improved in that state and people will maybe give you a shot at the presidency.
P.S. As an aside, arn't you a little disturbed at the dynastic nature of Ron Paul's politics? Why must his successor be his son? Why not some other person (someone else in the movement or even you!). Here's a tip - movements that are family-based tend to die, because sooner or later the family will fall out with followers (accuse them of betrayal for wanting someone other than the designated heir to lead, for example). Any new movement that wants to endure needs to be spearheaded by at least a dozen talented people who are NOT related to each other.
Which is why Mitt Romney will certainly lose and my prediction of Santorum in 2016 is going to happen. Mitt Romney is an elite, moderate, flip-flopping Obama-lite who strikes most people (and especially independent voters) as not genuine and who constantly shoots himself in the foot with the stuff he says. Those qualities hurt you if you are a democrat and they kill you if you are a conservative.
No one polling as low as he is at this point has ever won the general election. How the fuck are real conservatives supposed to get excited about him?
Mitt Romney is the right's John Kerry.
All true. And I do agree that in 2016 the Religionists need a conservative candidate to vote for too; but the question becomes will that candidate be a Libertarian (who should theoretically control the party at that point) or just the old-style neocons like Frothy?
We both know that frothy Dick could never run as a libertarian... His soundbytes from the last month alone would ruin any possible chance at a career down that path.
So if the libertarians are in power in 2016 because Paul's done an Ace job for 4 years by that point, then whatever is left of the neocons will be small enough that frothy will be a tiny voice squelched out by the vast multitudes of Libertarians who want Paul re-elected. There won't be any convention in 2016 unless Paul is completely ineffective in the white house.
Perhaps in 2020. Then again, RAND will look good in 2020 too!